Rep. Dow (Eddie Moore, Journal)

Don't believe the optimists. It can always get worse. Case in point is the latest downer development for state Republicans. State Rep. Rebecca Dow, one of the leading lights left in the beleaguered minority party, flubbed the petition process for her re-election bid and has been denied a spot on the June primary ballot. She says she will appeal to the NM Supreme Court but a reversal is unlikely. 

While Dow appears done for the primary she could consider filing in June as a write-in candidate for the November general election.

The Democrats have only a write-in candidate for the June primary, David Mooney of Radium Springs whose website has no bio details but the messaging is progressive Dem. He can get on the November ballot by attracting around 30 votes required at the primary. If the political machine of House Speaker Javier Martinez then goes all-in for Mooney for November, it will be problematic that even a popular write-in candidate like Dow would be able to get re-elected.  

This means the Dems are now well-positioned to retake House District 38, a swing seat that includes parts of Dona Ana, Sierra and Socorro counties. Dow was first elected there in 2016 and served until she decided to make an unsuccessful run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2022. That year Democrat Tara Jaramillo won the seat but in '24 Dow took it back.

The House is currently controlled 44-26 by the Dems. Any D pick-up would further the deep disadvantage Republican Santa Fe legislators already face. They would have to flip a Dem seat to make up for losing Dow--not an easy lift. 

The irony wasn't lost on anyone that former Rep. Jaramillo was signed up to be the plaintiff in the case  challenging Dow's petition signatures. The crafty attorney Daymon Ely, a former ABQ area Dem state rep, needed a registered District 38 voter to make good on his court challenge and Jaramillo was ready to go.  

THE LEGAL ANGLE 

Attorney Ely

Dow, a well-respected conservative, screwed up. Plain and simple. 

With a foe as legally agile as Ely and in spite of her protests that hers was a "technical" violation, her political ambitions were quashed by the district court who agreed with Ely's skillful argument: 

Ely said the issue was more than just a technical problem, "She filed screenshots of her nominating petitions and so a challenger looking at that couldn't find the addresses [of voters who signed her nominating petitions] because they weren't there," he said. "The screenshots do not include any addresses for the signatories, This is not simply a ministerial problem. Dow's opponents do not have an adequate method by which to determine whether the signatures are duplicative. The process is designed to keep people on the ballot, right? We want voters to have access. You want to have choices, and I agree with that. "But in this case, this is other side of the coin, which is people shouldn't be on the ballot if they've jeopardized in their ability to challenge their signatures. Otherwise you're going to have people just filing for office without valid signatures and not being challenged. And the election code is set up so that it's a transparent process, and then the challenger has a very short period of time to make the challenge. And in this case, that was compromised substantially by what Rebecca Dow did."

Any questions?

ROADMAP FOR CYFD 

The state attorney general's office--now called the Dept. of Justice-- has been making headlines for successfully suing Facebook for having a harmful influence on children. Important stuff but closer to home is the department's just reeleased in-depth investigation scorching the systemic and longtime problems causing the ongoing crisis at the state's Children, Youth and Families Department. 

CYFD says the AG's report "underplays" the "measurable success" made at the agency but we've been hearing that for years while horrific abuses continue and poor management makes matters worse. There is a lengthy list of recommendations in the report to improve how the state deals with neglected and abused children. They are well worth the special attention of the Legislature and the wanna be governors on the campaign trail. 

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