Higher for longer is the catch phrase for the New Mexico economy and the politics that follow.

State economists forecast the average oil price at $58 a barrel for the current budget year---July 2025-June 2026--but since the Iran war broke out nearly a month ago the average has been far above that mark, with West Texas oil still trading near $90 a barrel Monday. Then there's this Wall Street prediction:

If the oil price exceeds the state's projected $58 mark for at  least three months and WTI averaged $70 a barrel, the capitol's bean counters say it would mean about $600 million more in oil boom money as production cranks up. If oil goes to $90 and stays there the state windfall could soar to over $1 billion, a nice pop for the $13 billion state budget. 

Of course, the downside risk is equally dramatic and a price crash can't be ruled out. 

Then there's the dramatic increase for consumers filling up their gas tanks--which brings us to the politics.

Dem Guv Sam Bregman's proposal for $500 rebates for residents making less than $200,000 a year is aimed at  softening the impact of the energy shock but critics say the plan is premature given the extreme uncertainty in the oil market. Only when the money is safely tucked away under the Santa Fe mattress, they argue, should rebates join the campaign conversation. Until then, how much higher and for how long remains the state's catch phrase. 

NOT HOWIE

Some wall-leaners thought Lt. Gov. Howie Morales, 53, an educator from Silver City with a PhD, might have a shot at becoming the next president of Western NM University but it was not to be: