Haaland

Deb Haaland easily overpowered Sam Bregman at the Democratic party preprimary convention at Ruidoso this weekend, besting the BernCo District Attorney by winning sthe votes of 733 delegates for 73.52 percent of the vote. Bregman managed only 264 votes or 26.48 percent. The lopsided decisive victory cemented Haaland's status as the clear front-runner in the race for the '26 Democratic gubernatorial nomination that will be decided at the June 2 primary election.

Complete preprimary results here.  

The result was not unexpected but the landslide margin was important for Haaland whose candidacy got off to an uneven start with lots of movement, but little substance and some internal strife. She has since steadied the ship but Bregman has rocked the boat with his repeated challenges for her to debate him. There also has been a whisper campaign against her--with the help of Republicans--that claims she does not have the smarts for the state's top job.

The preprimary win gives Haaland, the former Sec. of Interior under President Biden, the chance to head back on the trail with some air beneath her wings. Her campaign manager declared:

Her performance is a testament to the strong, winning campaign Deb continues to build. Our campaign has the winning message, the strongest and most experienced candidate, the best team, and the momentum to deliver a decisive victory in June and again in November.

Bregman's performance will be seen by party pros as nearly a death rattle and he will have much work to do to prevent that perception from locking in during the final weeks of the campaign. Following release of the preprimary results late Monday, he went to work:

The people of New Mexico, not a room full of party power brokers, will decide who leads this state. What we’re seeing across New Mexico is a campaign bringing in new voters, new voices, and people who know the old political playbook is leaving too many families behind. We checked the convention box. Now we’re taking our message directly to voters across the state. 

Bregman

While it's true that the preprimary does not signal an automatic primary, over the many years we have covered them we find that the Dem preprimary conventions are more reflective of the party as a whole while the Republican preprimary meets are less so.

Haaland's internal polling is obviously holding up well or she might not be so dismissive of Bregman's calls to debate her. (There is a quasi-debate/forum scheduled for the candidates May 2. Both will be there.) And she has plenty of money--if deployed wisely--to considerably outspend Bregman.  

Bregman came into the convention with a large TV buy behind him in which he attacked ICE and promised to prosecute any ICE agents who break state law. He has also rolled out an in-depth campaign  platform and been traveling the state extensively. But none of it stuck with the progressive Dems--who are the nominating wing of  the party--and whose love affair with fellow progressive Haaland has been long and ardous. That she would be the first Native American woman Governor sends them swooning.

For Bregman, an old pro with some old pros by his side, it is time to explore new paths. For Haaland the directive is to trod the straight and narrow road that is keeping her with a handsome lead. 

SOS RACE

The Dem nomination for Secretary of State is still up for grabs after the preprimary but Santa Fe County Clerk Katharine Clark has to be breathing easier after her 46%-36% win over Dona Ana County Clerk Amanda López Askin and third place finisher Sonya Smith who received 18 percent and will have to get more petition signatures to be on the primary ballot. 

This is a tight race between two ambitious, capable and politically astute women. The preprimary signals the edge that Clark may have in ABQ and Santa Fe where she has media exposure, but López Askin has that Las Cruces base and the Hispanic heritage that is so often a vote-getter in statewide contests.

Rather than giving us a front-runner for the SOS nomination, the preprimary affirmed that this race appears destined to go down to the wire. 

LT. GOV. CONTEST 

Speaking of SOS, the current one, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, is termed out and seeking the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor as is ABQ state Sen. Harold Pope. MTO had a solid 58 to 42 percent preprimary win over Pope but did not quite put him away. She will need a healthy media spend to do the job. 

Pope would be the state's first Black lt. governor. That and his legislative experience has made him plenty of fans in the party. 

There is also the issue of an all-female ticket. If Haaland and MTO were paired, they would be the first. In today's era this may not matter greatly but concern about having a gender balanced ticket may have helped Pope. MTO remains the heavy favorite in the June primary but Pope lives to fight another day. 

LAND OFFICE RESULTS 

Juan Sanchez

Sen. Martin Heinrich has been trying to take over the state land office for. . .well. . . a very long time. He went all-in for a Dem candidate friend in '16 but came up empty. This time he's backing his former political aide Juan Sanchez who is off to a decent start. 

Sanchez, of central NM, scored 56 percent of the delegates, crushing fellow rancher Jonas Moya of the eastside who did not make it on the ballot with his 7 percent. And there's more. . .  

Santa Fe area state Rep. Matthew McQueen, a darling of the environmental left, came with 37 percent and is not going away. Ironically, much of McQueen's base voters are the same as Heinrich's, an enviro senator if there ever was one. 

McQueen is a well-regarded state rep. Sanchez is a sharp politico with a possible ethnic advantage working for him if Jonas does not get on the ballot by getting more signatures.

If this stays a two way race keep a lookout for the fund-raising numbers. They could tell the tale.  

CONGRESS

The state's three Democratic US House members all ran unopposed for a ballot position--District one Rep. Melanie Stansbury; District 2 Rep. Gabe Vasquez and District 3 Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez. The Stansbury and TLF districts are ranked Safe Democratic here and the Vasquez district is Lean Democratic.

US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, seeking a second term, was challenged by socialist Dem Matt Dodson. Lujan brushed it off by getting 86 percent support. Lujan is unopposed in the general election but the GOP is trying to field a write-in candidate.

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.