Former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull reset the race for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination in Ruidoso Saturday by chalking up a formidable 57 percent preprimary convention win in the five way race for placement on the June 2 primary ballot. 

(All convention results here.) 

Hull, who received 239 of the 420 delegate votes, saw his campaign get off to a soft start as he sometimes acted uncertain about his commitment to the contest. Now he appears to have hit his stride with the significant convention win and the announcement that he has raised $400,000 for the battle ahead.

And a battle it promises to be as long Duke Rodriguez lives up to his pledge to spend upwards of $2 million of his personal fortune to be competitive. 

He has already purchased expensive full-page newspaper ads but now the true test arrives.

Turner

With a not unexpected poor third place showing of 39 votes (9.8 percent) among the delegates, self-described outsider Rodriguez is now on his own. Any flinching from his spending pledge could crush momentum and his candidacy. 

Rodriguez had already collected enough signatures (and beat back legal challenges) to qualify for the ballot without needing the required 20 percent of the primary delegate support. 

His backers say his position is somewhat similar to that of Mark Ronchetti in 2022. He also had little appeal to convention delegates and finished in last place but still went on to handily win that year's nomination.

Complicating the race is the respectable showing by ABQ businessmen Doug Turner, who has been out of sight and out of mind since his unsuccessful Guv run in 2010 when Susana Martinez won the Republican nomination.

This time around Turner secured the support of two former state GOP chairmen--Harvey Yates and Ryan Cangiolosi--to help vault him to a second place preprimary finish with 104 votes for 24.76 percent. 

Longtime GOP fund-raiser Andrea Goff is also with Turner who fought himself into the race with a late entry.

Turner's sleeper candidacy has awakened, but if not fully roused he and Hull could spoil each other's chances. Both represent the establishment wing of the party. If they split that vote and Rodriguez goes on to catch fire, it could hand the cannabis tycoon the win. 

WHERE'S TRUMP? 

Where is the outright Trump candidate? There is none. Neither Turner or Hull--moderate Republicans--nor outsider Rodriguez are looking to him for support. And Trump forces are not looking to win the state in November where the president's approval rating is below 40 percent, according to recent surveys.  

DUKE'S DETRACTORS 

Rodriguez

Meanwhile Duke detractors are busy working him over in the wake of the convention, dismissing his effort as a "vanity candidacy," with one GOP Alligator telling us the convention shows Rodriguez's support is "an inch wide and a quarter-inch deep." They assert he will ultimately be derailed by unresolved legal questions over his residency and that the GOP must jump off his ship now or risk disaster.

Rodriguez has struggled with those legal challenges but has prevailed in two lawsuits. Also, his often ebullient temperament has drawn criticism. 

But unlike Rodriguez, Hull and Turner are seen as comparatively colorless candidates who lack the charisma, name ID and energy that the 68 year old Rodriguez exhibits. And as the only Hispanic in the three way race, he gets an additional edge. 

The bottom line is that Rodriguez, the early front-runner for the nomination, has lost that status for now and the door has been opened for Hull and Turner. How long that will last may be up to how Rodriguez performs in the days ahead.

THREE WAY

It is a three way GOP Governor race because candidates Steve Lanier and James Ellison received little preprimary support (Lanier 31 votes or 7.38 percent and Ellison 7 votes oor 1.67%) and are not expected to submit the required petition signatures to make up for their failure to garner the required 20 percent support for automatic ballot placement.

LIGHT GUV

As uncertainty looms over the governor's race, Republicans are pleased with the race for #2--the lieutenant governor. They chose Eunice GOP state Senator David Gallegos to carry their flag. Gallegos scored 67%; A. Blair Dunn 19% and Manuel Lardizabal 15 percent. 

The thing about Gallegos is he fits like a glove with whomever the GOP chooses as their gubernatorial nominee. His SE NM roots and Hispanic heritage are ideal for a statewide ticket led by a candidate from the ABQ area---where the three governor candidates are from. He is also an experienced and  knowledgeable legislator.  

ROAD TO CONGRESS

Greg Cunningham

Hopefuls for the state's three congressional seats were also vying for ballot placement at the convention. A mild surprise was the collapse of the candidacy of DEA contractor Jose Orozco in the race for the southern-centered Second Congressional District. Former APD officer and Marine vet Greg Cunningham overwhelmed him by getting 82 percent of delegate support. 

Even if Orozco goes the petition route to get on the June ballot, he will not have money. National Republicans--still hoping to take the seat away from Dem. Rep Gabe Vasquez--will now push Cunningham out. The seat is ranked lean Democratic after two wins by Vasquez.

In the First Congressional District in ABQ and some SE NM territory, popular Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury has few worries. Didi Okpareke beat Steve Jones and will be the GOP nominee. But she is unknown and under-financed. Stansbury was first elected at a June 2021 special election and has become the the most vocal member of the state's congressional delegation as well as the most outspoken anti-Trump member.

In the northern Third Congressional District the race will be a bit more interesting. GOP state Rep. Martin  Zamora of Curry county is unchallenged for the nomination. Republicans describe the rancher/businessman as "solid." They believe he will at least test Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez as she seeks a fourth term to represent the sprawling and heavy Dem district. 

MORE STATEWIDE ACTION 

Insiders have long pegged former Assistant State Land Commissioner and Chaves County Commissioner Michael Perry as a top notch choice for the GOP nod for Land Commissioner. He was unchallenged at the convention and will be the nominee. There is a three way race for the Democratic nomination.

In the race for Secretary of State Ramona Goolsby was tapped as the GOP nominee. 

The Dems have two powerhouse candidates competing for their nomination--County Clerks Clark of Santa Fe and López Askin of Dona Ana--and are expected to easily keep the office in their column. 

The GOP nominee for attorney general will be Las Cruces attorney Sam Kane. No Republicans ran for state auditor or treasurer. Incumbent Auditor Joseph Maestas and incumbent Treasurer Laura Montoya get free rides for second terms. 

MONAHAN'S BOTTOM LINES 

Democrats are in good shape to continue their hold on the governorship, all three congressional seats and the statewide executive offices. Look to the state land commission contest for any change to that scenario. 

Democrats also met in Ruidoso Saturday for their preprimary convention. Their vote was done through an absentee process. Results are expected later today. 

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.