Bregman and Haaland

For the first time, decline to state voters in New Mexico will have the chance to vote in the Democratic or Republican primaries June 2 but they will likely have little impact on the outcome of the gubernatorial or other contests.

The chief reason is the very low number of independents expected to take advantage of the opportunity to vote. Longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff estimates only about 10 percent of the 364,000 voters registered as "decline to state" will cast ballots in the primary election. He admits that could be on the high side. 

Sanderoff bases his prediction on innumerable polls he has conducted here and on the experience of other other states that have allowed independents to get in on the primary action. For the June election here, his forecast would mean the addition of about 36,400 independent voters. Again, that could be on the high side. 

So what would the impact of that hypothetical turnout mean for Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman who are vying for the Dem Guv nomination and the three GOP Guv candidates expected to be the choices for Republicans?

Assume 60 percent of those 36,400 independents opt to vote Democratic--not unusual considering the party's dominance here and the overall blue lean of the state. That would be 21,840 new Democratic voters. Further assume that moderate Dem Bregman beats Haaland handily with them--55 percent to  45 percent. That would be a pick up of 2,184 votes for Bregman,

Turnout in the open 2018 Dem governor primary was about 176,000 and a similar or even larger number can be expected this year. A big Bregman independent win (that 2,184) would amount to about 1.25 percent of the total votes cast. Even an unlikely 65 percent independent win by the BernCo DA would make no appreciable difference---unless the race was exceptionally tight. 

In 2018 MLG beat two primary opponents with 66 percent or 59,000 votes. Haaland, according to public polling, is ahead of Bregman by at least 10 percent and probably more. That would put her on track for at least a 17,600 vote win with a 176,000 turnout, if Bregman got to 45 percent. 

If Bregman could somehow break the mold and stimulate a larger than expected turnout among independents, he could improve his chances. But that's a longshot. His best chance as well as Haaland's is to diligently cater to Democratic base voters who will continue to be the nominating wing of the state's largest party regardless of the entry of independents.

In the GOP primary, barring a squeaker of a race, we can rinse and repeat basically the same analysis in the chase for their gubernatorial nomination. 

About 118,000 voters showed up for the open GOP 2022 primary. Under the turnout forecast we are using, about 14,560 indys would join them this year. In a three way race where a dominant candidate received 40 percent to 60 percent for the two challengers, the winner would pick up 1,456 votes--not inconsequential but not a game-changer. 

TAX REJECTED 

Late Monday the ABQ City Council rejected a proposal to raise the gross receipts tax by nearly half a percent, an issue we blogged about Monday. From the Council: 

The Council voted down the Community Enhancement Municipal Gross Receipts Tax Monday night. The ordinance, sponsored by Councilors Baca and Bassan, would have imposed a 0.4875% excise tax on gross receipts for businesses operating in Albuquerque, with revenues dedicated to municipal capital projects and general operational purposes.  

Councilors Brook Bassan and Joaquín Baca co-sponsored the tax hike but voted no vote after saying amendments "killed the spirit" of the bill.  It failed on a 8-1 vote with only Councilor Feibelkorn voting in favor. 

ZORRO RANCH (CONT,)

Zorro Ranch

The investigation into the Epstein NM ranch gets an in-depth look from NBC:

This the Home of New Mexico Politics.