Ken Miyagishima

It will be a head-to head match-up between Deb Haaland and Sam Bregman for the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima has bowed out of the Dem primary, announcing he will run for Governor as an independent. 

That's a plus for BernCo District Attorney Bregman who faces an uphill climb against the onetime Interior Secretary. Miyagishima and Bregman have both been vying for moderate Dem voters as well as independents who will be able to cast ballots for the first time this year in state primaries. Now Bregman has that field to himself. 

As he headed for the exits, Miyagishima said:  

Moving forward requires us to come together, regardless of party lines. By becoming an independent candidate, I aim to foster a political environment that embraces fresh ideas and encourages community involvement. “If New Mexico wants more hyper-partisan national politics, they have options, if they want a Governor for all the people all the time, I’m here.” 

Much of the women's vote in the female majority state Dem party is lined up behind Haaland. Bregman now avoids a split in the male vote that is partial to him.

Haaland, meanwhile, rolls out an endorsement from 88 year old actor and activist Jane Fonda who has been a leading critic of Trump and ICE and whose PAC is centered on climate change. That enhances Haaland's standing with her critical left wing.   

Jane Fonda

It's noteworthy because DA Bregman's announcement that he would arrest ICE agents if they violate citizen rights--accompanied by a TV buy--went over well with not only progressives but Hispanic moderates and others who have soured on Trump. 

Haaland continues to hold the pole position with four months to go but Bregman has had a good few weeks that got his ebbing momentum revving again and keeps the contest alive.

We can't recall a Dem governor primary more vital. That's not because of transformational changes that the candidates are embracing but because the chances of a Republican candidate have never seemed worse. 

The increasing Dem lean of the state combined with the unpopularity of Trump are making even the governorship--so often a swing position in state history--just another state office that is likely Democratic

While Miyagishima's withdrawal helps moderate Bregman in the Democratic primary, his independent candidacy would hurt the eventual Republican nominee. He needs 14,000 signatures to qualify for  the November ballot. Republicans can only hope he doesn't get them. The ball and chain around their ankle is already too heavy.    

CRIME DROP DEBATE

APD Interim Chief Barker

Our Jan. 29 blog noting the significant drop in ABQ crime in 2025 quoted police for the reasons behind the drop. That brought this:

Joe, I'm writing about this statement in your column: 

"More effective policing--not new laws--appears to be a key factor in the decline. APD says it has gotten better with technology and targeting and the homicide team has been increased. . .None of this plays into the playbook that more laws are essential to cleaning up crime." 

There's an inconvenient truth here--crime is declining across the country. A secular decline in all 50 states can't be the result of "better" police work, unless you believe all 50 states got markedly better at catching criminals at the same time. I think the more likely story is the decline in fentanyl potency, which is the result of the Chinese government cracking down on exporters who were sending the raw materials to Mexican cartels. Take a look at this article reporting how fentanyl overdoses saw dramatic declines in both the United States and Canada at exactly the same time. 

This is an inconvenient story for both Republicans and Democrats: It is inconvenient for Republicans because it tends to show that throwing people in jail doesn't have a meaningful effect on overall crime rates. This makes sense when you think about how most crime is petty property and violent crime that is driven by drug users, an explanation that you have repeatedly subscribed to on your blog. 

It is inconvenient for Democrats because it tends to show that the government can do little, if anything, to address drug addiction. It was Chinese bureaucrats, not increased access to behavioral health care and opioid antagonist medicine such as naloxone, that drove the decline in overdoses.  

JUNIOR GATOR  

A self-described "Junior Alligator" says one explanation for the decline in homicides in ABQ doesn't add up:

How does “more policing” prevent murders? Really shouldn’t APD say: “We have gotten better at making murder arrests?” Because unless APD can point to even one murder they stopped, this is a badly worded attempt at PR. 

Thanks, Junior Gator.

By the way, for newcomers here a "Senior Alligator" is our moniker for our most trusted sources for off the record info on all things pertaining to New Mexico politics. 

How we arrived at the name is a long story but those awarded the coveted title must meet several requirements. They must be a minimum age of 45, contributed at least three substantial and accurate exclusive contributions to the blog, and it is preferred that they have sought and lost elective office. (The losers of La Politica tend to learn more than the winners.)

The original Senior Alligator (circa 2003) was the late Andrew Leo Lopez of ABQ's South Valley. One year we thought he was so full of himself that we bet him $500 on the outcome of that year's race for Governor. 

We lost. 

Hey, that's why they're called Senior Alligators.  

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