Rep. Vasquez

We've wondered when national pundits would begin to see what we've been seeing and switch the southern congressional race from a "toss up" to a "lean Democratic" race. Well, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has now done just that, dropping the toss up title for the seat held by two term Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez and giving it that lean Dem rating. 

That's significant because the new ranking is likely to impact fund-raising for the eventual GOP nominee. It could also influence the national Republican committees on whether they should again put millions into the GOP candidate's campaign as they did with Yvette Herrell.

The re-ranking of the district drew this reaction from a GOP consultant:

It's a shame because Vasquez is still weak. He could be beaten but we went with Herrell for the second time in '24 and her 10,000 vote loss led to this. Half the votes in the district now come from the ABQ and Las Cruces areas so it's not surprising. That vote combined with the national environment moves the district away from us. 

Trump carried the district by just two points in '24 and is not on the ballot this year. That could reduce GOP turnout and enthusiasm in the conservative regions of the sprawling district, another reason for Cook to do what they did. 

THE CANDIDATES 

The GOP hopefuls running for the southern seat in the June primary include: 

Greg Cunningham, a former Marine Corps combat veteran and retired Albuquerque police detective. He ran unsuccessfully for the New Mexico House in District 29 in 2022 and 2024.

Jose Orozco, an Albuquerque resident and former federal contractor with the Drug Enforcement Administration. He previously ran unsuccessfully as the GOP nominee for state House District 12 in 2012 and briefly challenged in a 2016 state Senate primary.

Radio talk show host Eddy Aragon, who earlier announced a candidacy, now tells us he is not running.

TURNER COMES IN

ABQ PR executive Doug Turner is going to take a second bite out of the apple and try again to become his party's gubernatorial nominee after running unsuccessfully in 2010. 

Turner, 57, who told us over the holidays he was mulling over a run, has registered his campaign with the secretary of state. A political operative in Sandoval County reports to our Alligators that he is seeking petition signatures for Turner's candidacy. 

Those signatures, 2,351 of them from GOP voters, are due February 3 so Turner, co-founder of Agenda Global, can qualify for ballot placement at the party's March pre-primary convention. 

Turner worked as a campaign director for the Gary Johnson governor campaign in 1994 but Johnson has already endorsed Duke Rodriguez for this year's nomination.  

In addition to Turner and Rodriguez, GOP state Sen. Steve Lanier and Jim Ellison have announced candidacies for the GOP nod.

NOT JUST ONE 

While the interstate compact to allow out-of-state doctors to more easily see New Mexico patients is on the fast track for approval at the Roundhouse, Fred Nathan of Think New Mexico points out that other health care worker compacts are having a much tougher time:

Last year, the House unanimously passed seven major compacts for health care workers, but they all died in the Senate Judiciary Committee. These compacts are the quickest way to open up access to more health care providers, because they make it much easier for doctors and other health care providers to become licensed to care for New Mexico patients. . . The Senate is still opposed to passing the other compacts this session, even though New Mexico has dire shortages of EMTs, dentists, psychologists, counselors, physician assistants, physical therapists, occupational therapists, and speech therapists and audiologists. Colorado is in all ten of these compacts, as is a growing number of other states.

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