New Mexico's long stagnation isn't being helped by the Trump administration crackdown on immigration. 

US Census population estimates for the year ending July 1, 2025 released Tuesday show a decline in state population from 2,126,774 in July 2024 to 2,125,497 in July 2025.

That's only 0.06 percent decline but only four other states saw population declines for the period.

Trump's immigration policies sharply reduced net international migration across the nation--the factor that had previously offset New Mexico's structural losses. The Census attributes this to actions like border closures and deportation surges. 

Taking a longer view, the Land of Enchantment sported a 2020 population of 2,118,446. The state has added only 7,051 residents since--a mere increase of 0.33 percent or basically a flat line on the chart.

Long standing socioeconomic issues combined with a largely rural environment that has been in a secular decline here and nationally have hammered the state. 

An economic boom led by technology took hold this century in the urban centers of the surrounding states of Colorado, Texas and Arizona, providing the greener pastures for the state's younger demographic to flee.

The states comparable urban center--Bernalillo and Sandoval counties--fell far behind. 

Bernalillo County (Albuquerque) already showed the largest recent numeric loss at about 800–900 residents in the 2023–2024 window and continues to run slightly negative with final numbers to be released soon. 

The flat population trend has left New Mexico with a working age group increasingly reliant for economic sustenance on secure government employment, lower wage jobs and assistance programs like Medicaid and SNAP.

Politically, the state has grown more progressive during the Great Stagnation, a development of interest since the older voting population is one of the few demographics growing here. Often such voters act conservatively but there are no signs of that with Republicans holding no statewide offices. 

Rather than conservatism the state has developed a more entrenched status quo. 

Older voters are more insulated from economic turmoil and naturally many don't prioritize public education. Combine them with progressive voters whose agenda is more socially oriented than economic--e.g. climate, Trump and environment--and there is a general satisfaction with the status quo, albeit often a grumpy one. This makes systemic change (CYFD,  public ed, police effectiveness, econ development) a greater challenge, and that continues to be reflected in the stagnant population numbers. 

CRACKING ICE

On the subject of immigration crackdowns, Dem Guv nominee and BernCo DA Sam Bregman is taking advantage of the positive Dem reaction he has received for announcing a crackdown of his own--on any ICE agents that he believes are employing unconstitutional actions in the county. Bregman comes with this TV ad that says he has "put ICE on notice": 

As DA, my job is to uphold the law. But what ICE is doing is breaking the law. I'm Sam Bregman, and as Bernalillo County District Attorney, I've officially put ICE on notice. If you're part of ICE and you break our laws, you will be prosecuted. You're going to prosecute them? If they're committing felonies, I absolutely will prosecute them. And Donald, you know what it's like to be prosecuted for a crime. 

Candidate Deb Haaland has been making numerous mentions of ICE in her appearances of late, telling protestors in downtown ABQ this past Saturday:

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.