Mayor Tim Keller and former BernCo Sheriff Darren White, the probable top two finishers in the ABQ mayoral race, clashed at the final media meeting of the candidates with White embracing a sarcastic nickname Keller has adopted for him as the rest of the field worked for a breakthrough that would propel them to an anticipated run-off election.

Keller's nickname for White is Day One Darren, based on his repeated declarations about what he would do as mayor on his first day in office, particularly his assertion that homeless encampments would be shut down on "Day One."

Keller scoffs at any mayor's ability to do that thus the White nickname. He was given more ammo for that assertion with a NM Supreme Court ruling that thwarts the Keller administration's efforts to get tougher on homeless camps. 

But White, at a 90 minute media session featuring all six mayor hopefuls, set up a clash between the two that could be the first of many if Keller and White meet for that expected December 9 run-off. Here's the closing statements made by each.

WHITE: Before you go vote ask yourself this question, what is Tim Keller going to do in 12 years that he hasn't done in eight. If I'm elected I will only serve four years. I'm not trying to pad my political career or punch my ticket to higher office. Mayor Keller is running to save his political career. I'm running to save our city. Mayor, today I noticed you started referring to me as Day One Darren and that is a moniker I proudly accept. Because on day one I am going to roll up my sleeves, get to work and clean up the mess, a mess you created, Mayor, in 2,882 days. It is time for a change. 

Keller, who is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive four year term:

For Day One Darren: The only thing you are going to do on day one is break a promise. You are just saying things that are illegal or ineffective or not doable, especially on day one. You say you are running to 'save the city.' I don't have some kind of savior complex. I'm just doing the tough work of problem solving to help our city for generations. And you're trying to resurrect your career. I know mine is already done. No Mayor has ever gone on to something else besides being Mayor because this is a work that you do because you love your hometown and you know it's the right thing to do. 

These are tough times. It's easy to just talk about the problem or say things there is no way you can deliver on. What's hard is to actually do the real work, to say how you're going to fix it. That is what I have done today. I see the challenges but I also see the things we are doing right that are making a difference. That's why we have to keep going. 

SAYING THEIR PIECE 

Varela

The six candidates, including Mayling Armijo and Eddy Varela, who were excluded from the KOAT debate last week, said they opposed moving the State Fair from ABQ. MLG's administration is studying the possibility of moving the Fair outside the city. 

Keller said there could be improvements at the corners of the Fairgrounds such as housing initiatives that could be financed with new funding authority the state is providing for the Fairgrounds area. 

Varela wants a teen curfew in the city to combat juvenile crime. That was attempted by then Mayor Chavez but ran afoul of the law. 

Varela, a Republican, also said he is working on a plan to have homeless people go back to their home states if they rejected treatment for fentanyl addiction and found to be breaking laws. He claimed that based on his personal interviews 50 percent of the homeless are from outside ABQ.

Former US Attorney Alex Uballez said the city should be banning the wearing of masks by ICE agents and should designate response teams to provide legal defenses "to families torn apart by ICE." 

Mayling Armijo said if "we don't look at attracting big businesses" and providing them the same incentives (as small business ) "state's like Texas, Colorado and Arizona will continue to take our young."  

Councilor Louis Sanchez, a former APD officer who was challenged at the KOAT debate over his stance on ABQ being a Sanctuary City said: "I am not for sanctuary cities. I have said that over and over and over. It's important we take the criminals off the streets. I will always cooperate with all law enforcement agencies."  

DEEP DIVE

We take a 45 minute deep dive into the race for ABQ mayor and the state of the city with KIVA-AM 1600 radio host Eddy Aragon. The stream is here. An excerpt:  

Aragon, who ran for mayor in 2021 and lost to Keller, predicts the following outcome: Keller at 42%, Darren White at 30%, Uballez at 14%, Sanchez at 10%, Armijo at 3%, and Varela at 1%. 

Monahan finds the 42% figure for Keller plausible, as it aligns with Keller's late September approval rating from an ABQ Journal poll.  

RACE SHUTDOWN?

In Santa Fe, the mayoral race appears to be in danger of shutting down following the endorsement of City Councilor Michael Garcia by US Sens. Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan. 

That came on the heels of an endorsement of Garcia by the New Mexican and recent insider polling showing him with a healthy lead. 

The senators said: 

He represents the next generation of leadership — someone who doesn’t just talk about progress but gets it done.

The endorsement of front-runner Garcia in the eight candidate race could be seen as unwanted interference from the DC reps but Santa Fe is a city of national repute and seems at an inflection point in its battle against homelessness and crime. That the two senators wanted to weigh in is understandable in that context.

Also, they know Garcia from working with him as a councilor and his day job with AmeriCorp VISTA, a federally-funded agency "implemented within local community nonprofits to address critical community needs in education, public safety, health and the environment."

Gov. Lujan Grisham last month endorsed Joanne Vigil Coppler, a longtime friend.

On the homelessness front, Santa Fe is taking stronger and prudent measures but that stance has provoked  a battle with progressives. But if the city does not lay down a marker now--and waits too long as ABQ did--the very nature of the city could be altered. 

Santa Fe has ranked choice voting. Garcia is expected to come in first but getting 50 percent in the first round is a challenge with so many candidates. Still, with backing of the business community and the US senators pushing their crews out for him, a victory scenario for the opposition is getting more difficult to envision. (There is no run-off election later. Ranked choice voting produces a winner Election Night.)

CAMPAIGN '26 

The candidacy announcements for the statewide executive offices up for election next year continue to roll out. Here's one from the State Auditor: 

State Auditor Joseph Maestas has formally announced his campaign for re-election, pledging to continue his fight for accountability, transparency, and innovation in New Mexico’s public entities and officials. 

“In my time as State Auditor, we’ve uncovered millions in waste, strengthened fiscal oversight, and made government more transparent than ever,” said Maestas. “But the work is far from over. New Mexico needs urgent, impactful action—and I am more committed than ever to delivering results that matter to every taxpayer. 

Maestas is a Democrat and has no announced opposition in the '26 primary. The annual salary of the Auditor is $144,714. 

MTO GOES OFFICIAL 

Sec. of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver is officially announcing her candidacy for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor today with this video on social media. She says New Mexico "needs a fighter who will stand up to" Donald Trump. Sen. Harold Pope of ABQ is the other major candidate in the lt. gov. race.

SCHOOL VOUCHER POSITIONS 

It's been a while since we had to self-administer the traditional punishment of ten lashes with a wet noodle for a blog error. But Wednesday morning we botched the positions of APS School Board candidates Danielle Gonzales, Josh Martinez and David Ams on the subject of school vouchers so the lashing will soon ensue. They all are against school vouchers.

In our first draft we used erroneous data and said Gonzales, the APS School Board President, had been silent on the vouchers--where parents use taxpayer money to pick a school of their choice. Gonzales is against vouchers. In discussing our error she said such vouchers are currently unconstitutional and a constitutional amendment approved by voters would be required to allow them. 

Gonzales, Martinez and Ams all answered questionnaires earlier in the campaign in which they stated their opposition to vouchers.  

Reporter Jesse Jones of NM News, who broke the story of a pair of billionaires contributing money to the School Board races and which we linked to, also issued a mea culpa for errors he said he made in his coverage.  

As much as news guys hate to let politicians (and their sometimes overbearing consultants) get on their high horses, there are these rare occasions when you have to grin and bear it.

Apologizes to the candidates. The wet noodle is activated. Ignore any pleas for mercy you may hear shouted.

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Is there a crack in the dam when it comes to ardent opposition to school vouchers for ABQ and New Mexico as a means of improving the long-ailing public education system? If there is, could that crack get larger after the election for four ABQ School Board seats on the November 4 ballot? 

Those questions arise with the news of a major influx of money into the campaign coffers of four of the candidates from a PAC funded by two billionaires promoting national education changes.

The education and political establishment here has for years drawn a line in the sand over vouchers that would allow parents to use taxpayer money to send their kids to private schools. But continued abysmal public school ratings--after an historic and massive investment of oil boom money to improve them--has led us and others to change positions and advocate for a limited voucher program as part of the solution so urgently needed.

The out of state PAC donations--around $300,000--appear to be the largest ever for an APS school board election and went to candidates that have received strong local business support. 

The board is currently controlled by a moderate pro-business faction holding four seats and union-friendly board members in the other three. But power could switch back to the union/teacher faction depending on the election results thus the influx of funds into the races. 

School vouchers are primarily a state issue so the impact of the election is more in a psychological vein. 

Vouchers have received little attention from the current Board. Board President Danielle Gonzales says she does not support vouchers. Candidates Josh Martinez and David Ams, also of the biz faction, say they are also opposed. 

Finance reports show the action fund has funneled money to four candidates — more than $15,000 to APD board president Danielle Gonzales in District 3, about $17,300 to board vice president Courtney Jackson in District 7, $13,000 to David Ams in District 6 and more than $5,800 to Joshua Martinez in District 5. . . The PAC also hired a Washington, D.C.-based media firm to produce $98,000 in so-called “independent expenditure” ads supporting those candidates. An additional $30,000 went to local polling.

THE NETFLIX FACTOR  

Reed Hastings

The largess comes from Nextflix co-founder Reed Hastings and hedge fund manager John Arnold who have spent more than $200 million nationally advocating for school vouchers as well as charter schools. 

Netflix has been a major contributor to the ABQ economy by making the city a center for their film and TV productions. 

They have also advanced film education and jobs. CNM is establishing a NM Film Academy at the Rail Yards made possible by the large industry presence here. 

APS says student enrollment has dropped below 66,000 with an annual budget of $2.25 billion. Enrollment peaked at 97,000 in 2021. Stagnant population growth--especially among school age children--has been the reason along with the growth of charter schools and other alternatives. 

The interest from the billionaires in the APS Board comes amid a continuing wave of depressing news over the lack of progress at APS with its many minority students:

Underserved eighth grade students in Albuquerque Public Schools are not hitting the goals the Board of Education set for them in math proficiency, according to a report released last week. The board also received a report that showed mixed results in early literacy goals, specifically the number of first and second graders reading proficiently. However, that report found that some students were hitting their goals. The first, second and eighth graders monitored in each report are “Yazzie-Martinez students,” defined by the 2018 landmark ruling that determined New Mexico was not providing its underserved students with an adequate education.

School vouchers have been seen as an existential threat to public school funding and Arizona's over use of them is often used as an example. But a limited and well-defined program for ABQ and New Mexico parents could be gaining momentum as those once-in-a-lifetime dollars flowing from oil did not move the needle. 

Teachers' union opposition to vouchers remains adamant.

APS BOARD RACES 

 More on those four seats up for election to the seven member APS board: 

• In District 3, incumbent Board President Danielle Gonzales and Rebecca Betzen are running. A third candidate, Isaac Flores, withdrew and endorsed Betzen, but remains on the ballot.
• In District 5, Brian Laurent and Joshua Martinez are running. Incumbent Crystal Tapia-Romero did not seek re-election.
• In District 6, David Ams and Warigia Margaret Bowman are running. Incumbent Josefina Dominguez did not seek re-election.
• In District 7, incumbent Courtney Jackson and Kristin Wood-Hegner are running.

The Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce endorsed Gonzales, Jackson, Ams, and Martinez. The Albuquerque Teachers Federation endorsed Betzen, Bowman, and Wood-Hegne. The union did not endorse a candidate for District 5. 

LABEL DISPUTED

ABQ District 5 City Council candidate Athena Allen, who is challenging Republican Councilor Dan Lewis, was called a progressive Democrat on the Tuesday blog but she said she doesn't identify that way:  

I do want to push back on being labeled a “progressive Democrat.” Labels box candidates in unfairly. I’m a Democrat who works in national security, and public safety is core to who I am--not just as the spouse of a law enforcement official, but through my work every day. I have support from Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who appreciate that I’m mission-driven and focused on better representation for the Westside. 

Allen is married to BernCo Sheriff John Allen. Her political consultant is Neri Holguin who mainly handles progressive Dem candidates. 

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There will be a run-off election predicts the ABQ mayoral candidate most likely to get the most votes November 4. 

Mayor Tim Keller was asked in a radio interview whether he believed there would be a run-off election which occurs if none of the six candidates achieve 50 percent of the vote. He responded without elaboration: "Yes, I do."

The full interview is here.  

Keller's prediction is shared by the great majority of observers who site the number of candidates and Keller's 42 percent approval rating. 

The most likely opponent for Keller in a run-off appears to be Republican and former BernCo Sheriff Darren White. But Republicans who have had a falling out with him fear he is already looking like dead money in a run-off with Democrat Keller in a Democratic city. They are conjuring memories of the 62-38 whopping that Keller gave Republican Dan Lewis in the 2017 mayoral run-off. 

Keller made his comments in an interview with Eddy Aragon of KIVA radio who ran against Keller in a three way race in 2021 and ever since has bashed him on the airwaves. But Aragon, 50, points out the pair did go to St. Pius High at the same time and are friendly. Keller sat for an amiable half-hour interview with Aragon at his 11th floor City Hall office.

Keller was also asked who he would vote for in the New York mayoral election, also set for Nov. 4, if he was a resident there. He said he would vote for Dem Socialist Zohran Mamdani:

His number one idea is to create an ABQ Community Safety Department. That is high praise from a candidate from New York.

Keller also said that if re-elected he would double the number of speed cameras in the city, warning: "You'll be annoyed." That's a safe prediction. 

The civilian ACS Keller mentioned is a new approach and backs up APD officers. It has been featured in a number of national news reports.

SAME AS FIRST

Second verse same as the first. So goes Keller's second TV ad of the campaign. 

Again he is pictured with a young, lively woman posing as a cheery news reporter who with Keller guides viewers though a "pop quiz" showcasing neighborhoods and projects the Mayor says have improved the city.

As in his first ad when he argued, "we're getting a lot more done than the news media is telling you about," he continues his gaslighting at the end of this ad. The transcript: 

Narrator: Another pop quiz. True or false? Tim Keller led the redevelopment of 7th and Central. Winrock Mall, the Railards, the Bio Park, Sawmill, facilities at the Balloon Park, and South San Jose Boxing Gym.  He also cleaned up Wells Park, Westgate Park, and Phil Chacon Park. We have more police on the street and more safe places to go. 

Keller: A lot more than the media is telling you about. 

Every mayor blames the media for not focusing on the "good news" but Keller has taken it to a new level by including the accusation in his paid media. He is clearly mistaken as a simple Google search for every project he mentions will bring up numerous news stories about the projects mentioned in the ads. 

(For example, here are results of a search for news stories on "Winrock redevelopment."

JOURNO 101 

The focus of news coverage has naturally been on homelessness and crime which are the major problems facing the city and of much more concern to voters than planting trees at a city park. Both deserve coverage and both get it. 

The emphasis is indeed on the undeniable spread of homelessness and crime in ABQ this past decade. That's because those problems have caused a deterioration in the quality of life in the state's largest city. There's no conspiracy to deprive the Mayor of glory.

Now, Keller's supporters can argue and they do that he has done a good job--the best he can--addressing those issues and can add that those problems are somewhat national in scope. What they can't argue is that news organizations did not cover what makes him look best. 

Keller doesn't like his coverage and neither did his predecessors. But we saw that Mayor Keller attended the King's Day protests over Trump's dictates this weekend. He apparently gets the media's role, but continues to find it politically useful to blame shame. In other words the gas light is lit for Campaign '25.

LEWIS VS. ALLEN

Councilor Lewis

The latest on the District 5 ABQ City Council race centers on Republican Dan Lewis' longevity on the westside. 

He faces Athena Allen, a progressive Democrat, national security expert and wife of Dem BernCo Sheriff John Allen. Opines a Dem consultant:

Lewis looks well-positioned. The district does have more a a Democratic lean these days but likely won't flip until he gives up the seat. He is deeply rooted there. Allen is not helped by her relationship with the Sheriff. That's too much for voters concerned about law enforcement oversight. But she is running a strong campaign. The race should be close. 

Athena Allen

Lewis has been an on again off again councilor for the district and is seeking his fourth term.

His AFSCME union endorsement is significant for a Republican although Allen has received support from several other unions and financial backing from a PAC --ABQ for All--that is made up of construction and electrical workers. 

Lewis won the seat in 2021 defeating conservative Democratic incumbent Cynthia Borrego. That flipped the district from Democratic to Republican control, contributing to a narrower Dem Council majority with 5 Dems to 4 Republicans. 

That partisan divide is expected to remain after the election but anti-Keller conservative Democrat Louis Sanchez will be replaced by a more neutral Dem councilor. 

Sanchez often joined often joined with Republicans to give them a working Council majority

Where Lewis stands on the issues here and more on Allen's positions here.

We had a thousand word limit on today's blog and brought it in at 999. Yet another reason why. . . 

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Mayor Hull (Journal)

You may have heard the phrase"burying the lead" (or lede) in which the most important point of a news story is placed at the very bottom. Today we have a classic case of that and how the neglected news impacts the '26 GOP gubernatorial primary. 

In finally making his candidacy "official" after a false start Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull came with a video. So he's finally all in, right? Nope. 

Hull is again hedging his bets with this statement that ran as the final sentence in a report about his announcement:

Hull’s current term as mayor runs through March’s local election in Rio Rancho, and he has not decided whether he will seek another term as he also pursues his gubernatorial campaign.

Say what? Hull is going to run for Governor but could still be a candidate for mayor in the March 2026 Rio Rancho mayoral election where he would be seeking a fourth term? 

So if a political heavyweight makes a late entry into the race does that mean Hull pushes the button on the escape hatch and runs for mayor instead? Or does he get completely unserious and run for both offices at the same time?  

THE HULL HESITANCY 

This is the not the first time that Hull has pulled back from what any reasonable observer would conclude is an unequivocal run for for Governor: 

First he announced he would make his candidacy official on June 2, but then--as we reported--pulled that back:

The middle of the road Republican has sent out an enigmatic news release saying that he delayed his planned June 2 formal announcement. That could set the stage for his withdrawal from the race, if things don't start looking up. 

From the release: Hull. . .will continue engaging with voters and community leaders. . .ahead of an anticipated formal campaign launch. Originally eyeing June 2 the campaign is choosing to extend its listening tour to ensure that our platform reflects the real concerns, hopes, and priorities of New Mexicans. . . 

Then came July 31 when Hull released a "launch video" that affirmed his candidacy, saying: 

Despite unfounded rumors, I am reaching out to you to confirm my commitment.

But as we wrote at the time, the "rumors" were anything but unfounded. The Alligators don't play around with the future of the Governor's office. And we we responded:

Hull, not ready to get in, erred by going public with a planned announcement date and then bailing out. It was his action that caused the "rumors" and cast a shadow over his steadiness and decision-making process. 

And here we go again. The deadline to file for Rio Rancho Mayor is January 6, leaving open the possibility that the third time is not the charm when it comes to the hesitancy of Hull.

But isn't the Governor's race about the fortunes of the people of New Mexico and not the fate of a politician's career? 

Mayor, for your obvious fence-sitting and hedge betting, you are the victim of a self-inflicted Alligator Strike. Congrats. . . or something. 

FREE SPENDERS

Meanwhile, while Hull may be sending signals to a future legislature that he can be easily swayed, the Democratic gubernatorial candidates are messaging that when it comes to handling the state's money, they may be more than a bit cavalier.

Deb Haaland now reports raising a total of $7 million for her campaign but has only $2.8 million in cash on hand, a spend down of 60 percent. For what?  It's not as though she has been in a massive paid media war. The primary isn't until next June.

Dem Sam Bregman has raised a total of $3.15 million and reports only $1.5 million in cash. That's less than Haaland but still a 48 percent spend down. Again, why? 

The obvious answer is the campaign consultant complex that works year round to create a need for their services which do not come cheap. Then there is the cost of raising campaign money by expensive professional fund-raisers.

Haaland ran into consultant trouble when campaign insiders confirmed that she had a falling out with then  campaign manager Scott Forrester over his compensation for digital ads. He then departed but it didn't stop the money from flowing like New Year's champagne. The other consultants just picked up where he left off. 

Bregman's main campaign event of late was the release of a 189 page "Blueprint" for New Mexico but much of it was criticized for coming from state web sites. 

Where was he and his handsomely paid consultants on that one?

In reaction to her massive cash haul Haaland said she is continuing to "listen" to voters about their concerns. One of those could be whether she and Bregman will have as free of a hand managing state finances as they seem to with their own campaigns. 

The latest finance report of Dem Guv hopeful Ken Miyagishima is here.

ALL IN THE FAMILY 

The political community has been wondering whether Bregman's talented and very wealthy pro baseball playing son Alex Bregman would be getting in on Dad's campaign. Yes, he will. He showed up to bat in the latest finance reports along with his wife who both donated the maximum $12,400. 

That raises the question whether Alex will continue aiding Pop with donations that could be put in a PAC that could then hit some campaign home runs for Bregman.

Haaland, a national figure, retains the money lead but because so much of her funds have been spent she can't really hold it over Bregman' s head. 

To the chagrin of her bevy of consultants who told her otherwise, Bregman is in this for the long game. His problem is getting stuck in the mud of rural New Mexico while she easily conquers progressive bastions in ABQ/Santa Fe.

FROM SGR TO MTO 

Speaking of which, the expected emergence of Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver as the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor--now that Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard has dropped out--is all about vote-rich Bernalillo County. 

MTO has slayed the dragon here repeatedly with two boffo wins for Bernalillo County Clerk Clerk and then a couple more more for Sec. of State. The county is fundamental to a Dem Guv win and the Haaland team, never happy with Garcia Richard, is happy to see that MTO is about to formally declare.

Garcia Richard proved less resilient than many expected but her husband's bout with cancer combined with an MTO poll (conveniently leaked) that showed her with a big lead were high hurdles. 

If MTO does defeat ABQ Sen. Harold Pope for the Light Guv nomination--and why would he even stay in at this point--it would not be a blow for Bregman. In fact, even if he did not get along with his running mate--not unusual--she would likely help him in the general election in big BernCo as much as as she would Haaland. 

But let's not get carried away. As the second banana the SOS is about to find out that when it comes to getting in on the inside of the campaigns for #1, she might have to send out an SOS. 

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