Keller and White

ABQ TV stations receiving $15,500 from the city to air Mayor Keller's recently delivered annual State of the City speech appear to be on the hook to provide equal time to his opponents, but there's a catch. Those opponents would have to pay for that equal time. No freebies. 

Republican contender Darren White rightfully pointed out in a letter to the stations, including KRQE-TV and KOAT, that coming so close to the November 4 election the address constitutes a political appeal and rallying cry by Keller.

The FCC equal time rule is clear that officials in an election cycle can get airtime for "bona fide" news events without triggering the equal time rule but in this case the paid for speech is clearly not that. 

However the impact of Keller's aggressive move may be academic. The 30 minute speech will air five different times across five stations. That's 150 minutes for each of his opponents--but not for free. 

The stations are obligated to offer the same amount of time to those candidates but can do so for the same price Keller paid. 

With most of the campaigns cash-starved and the speech airing in low-watched non primetime slots, there isn't much incentive for Keller's foes to take the stations up on their offer.

The KRQE manager says his group of stations stands ready to sell air time to White and the others. To which the reply might be, "well, thanks for nothing." So go moral victories in a political campaign. 

But why is the city paying to broadcast any State of the City speech? It started during the pandemic when there was some reasoning for it, but with that over and free social media outlets so numerous, that reasoning is in the rear view mirror. 

Candidate Alex Uballez is calling on Keller's campaign to pay the city back the money spent on the TV time. 

MORE ON WHITE 

The former BernCo Sheriff is capable of delivering campaign curve balls, having won two terms as sheriff and from hanging out for decades with GOP political consultant and BFF Jay McCleskey. But the GOP is split and it's costing White campaign money. 

At this point a unified GOP would have White with $500,000 in cash. In his Sept. 8 report, White reports total fund-raising of $199,000, spending of $68,000 including $39,000 for services from McCleskey. That left him with cash of $130,000.

The big GOP money is simply not flowing to him.  

His contributions include $20,000 from the owners of the Downs at ABQ, the racetrack and casino that makes their home at the state fairgrounds and that could be moved under plans being studied by MLG. 

White, who once worked at the Downs, is opposed to moving the fairgrounds.

White is airing tough on crime radio spots on conservative talker KKOB, but needs the broader reach of saturation broadcast TV to make a major move. He has the money to start that move but whether he'll have enough to finish it effectively is the question. 

Fund-raising status of all the mayoral candidates is here. 

ALL IN FOR CHILDCARE 

Reader KBV offers a counterpoint to the blog reader who Wednesday criticized the Governor's plan to pay for universal child care no matter how high the income of those receiving the subsidy:

Joe, While I 100% agree the state and the governor need to “use the same riches to focus next on our most vulnerable children-those in CYFD custody,” I applaud the state’s free childcare program for all. But be bold with our vulnerable babies, too. 

Regardless of income, NM parents are literally working, contributing to our economy and supporting their families. NM has its struggles with many things, maybe daycare should not be one of them. If I’m not mistaken the NM Lottery for college tuition didn’t have income requirements and a lot of our kids went to our univeristies. They didn’t leave and neither did their parents. Maybe this is the same thing. Lord knows these days our government is giving our hard earned tax dollars to rich people, wouldn’t we rather give our money back to all working parents? I would. Have a good day, Joe.

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The endorsement of ABQ Mayor Tim Keller's re-election by US Rep. Melanie Stansbury of ABQ would normally be a yawner but Keller foe Alex Uballez just picked up the endorsement of OLÉ, a leading progressive group that could draw support from Keller's political base. 

Now comes Stansbury, arguably the central figure among metro area progressives, with a ringing endorsement of Keller who is seeking a third term in November:

Mayor Keller has a clear plan for defending Albuquerque from an administration that is freezing funding, deploying troops to American cities, and creating chaos and disruptions to our daily lives. Mayor Keller has provided strong and steady leadership through some of the most tumultuous moments of the last several years, and is prepared to defend Albuquerque and our people from the uncertainties we will face in the coming years.

Stansbury also praised Keller's efforts on housing and public safety but she focused on the national impact of the mayoral race which is at the top of the progressive agenda. That's what Keller needs--plenty of chatter about the White House and less about crime and homelessness.

What Uballez needs is more disagreement among progressives over which candidate is best equipped to push back against Trump. But the OLÉ endorsement of Uballez was not as detailed as that of Stansbury's:

OLÉ is proud to endorse Alex Uballez for Mayor of Albuquerque! Alex is committed to fighting for hard-working Burque families. Together, we can build a city that works for everyone, not just the privileged few.

KELLER CASH

It's Keller's dominant financial position that has been the killer thus far of any movement to take him down. In addition to the $750,000 in public financing he qualified for--the only one of the seven mayoral contenders to do so--the Ascend ABQ PAC is out on the town raising more money for Keller. 

As of mid-August they have pulled in $155,000 and had cash on hand of $120,000. 

Where is the money coming from? The usual suspects--those with significant stakes in city business and the outcome of the election.

For example, Robles, Rael & Anaya, a go to law firm for many local government entities, is a major Ascend donor with partners of the firm coming with $30,000 in donations. The firm for years has contracted with the city legal department to provide outside legal services. 

Two brothers of the Garcia family, owners of car dealerships as well as major downtown ABQ developers, gave $5,000 each. 

Fresquez Concessions, which holds numerous concessions at the ABQ Sunport gave $15,000.

Big labor came with the big money. The New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council donated $20,000. The United Brotherhood of Carpenters & Joiners of America also donated $20,000 to the Ascend PAC. 

The Ascend PAC is separate from Keller's public finance account. His campaign is not allowed to coordinate activity with the PAC.  

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM?

We get this reader reaction on MLG's announcement that she will expand the state's free childcare program to include all families even the most affluent:

Last Friday the Governor announced the departure of Teresa, Casados, Secretary of CYFD. On Saturday two more babies died. So Monday needing a diversion Governor promotes an idea she has been holding for the right moment--expand free childcare. Context: New Mexico previously expanded free childcare to families earning up to 400% of the federal poverty level ($124,000 annual income). This new announcement extends the benefit to every family statewide, so now all families with income greater than $124,000 per year are eligible.

So seemingly the biggest problem we have in our state is families making $124,000 or more a year have to pay for their own childcare. I’ve never seen a state so excited to use tax dollars to give free childcare to families with income greater than $124,000.  I hope we use that same richness to focus next on our most vulnerable children--those in CYFD custody who are victims of severe child abuse and/or neglect and babies born drug addicted so we can keep them safe and stop babies and youth from dying. 

NOT A PUEBLO

In the first posting of the Tuesday blog reporting on the endorsement of Dem Guv candidate Sam Bregman by the Jicarilla Apache Nation, we erroneously referenced the nation as a pueblo. Bregman's endorsements from Native American communities include Sandia Pueblo--one of 19 in the state-- and the Jicarilla Apache Nation, not "two pueblos" as we first stated. 

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Judith Nakamura

By now top Republicans expected several candidates to be on the playing field vying for their party's 2026 gubernatorial nomination but the lone official candidate remains Rio Rancho Mayor Mayor Gregg Hull. He has had the race to himself since saying in April that he planned to run only to pull back a formal June 2 declaration but eventually going all in. 

Hull, while well-known in Rio Rancho, is unknown statewide and not the big name that some Republican consultants think could give the Democrats a run for their money. With that in the background, we checked on the status of one of those "big names."

Former NM Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura said in April that she was "considering" a candidacy but has since been quiet. A senior source familiar with her thinking tells NM Politics with Joe Monahan she is "still interested" in running but there are a lot of considerations for her to weigh. They explain: 

Joe, Judy is not a favorite of MAGA and they are not a favorite of hers. That is her major obstacle in winning the nomination. Also, she is pro-choice in a party that is fervently anti-abortion. That presents another major hurdle for her to jump in a GOP primary.

The irony is that what hurts Nakamura in a GOP primary dominated by hardcore conservatives could actually help her in a statewide race against the Democratic nominee. 

So would Nakamura have a shot if she were to run? 

Republican pros say her best bet is if Hull remains the sole major candidate seeking the nomination and that other possibles--like former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez--stay out. They believe Nakamura, 64, could defeat Hull in a one-on-one race despite her baggage with fellow R's because the lure of her beating the Democratic nominee would be hard to resist and because Hull is also known as a moderate R, not a wearer of the MAGA hat.

Along with Nakamura Roswell oilman Mark Murphy and healthcare executive Duke Rodriguez say they are "considering" a run. John Sanchez has made no public statements about his intentions. 

Some video of Nakamura is here.  

JICARILLAS FOR BREGMAN 

Meanwhile on the Dem side of the campaign trail, Guv contender and BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman has put more pressure on Deb Haaland with an endorsement from the Jicarilla Apache Nation. 

This endorsement follows the July bombshell dropped by Sandia Pueblo when they endorsed Bregman over Haaland who would be the first Native American governor in state history. 

Bregman's campaign quotes Jicarilla President Adrian Notsinneh as telling him:  

You demonstrated a clear and actionable plan to tackle critical challenges, including crime, substance abuse, and economic development within our communities.

Bregman rubbed it in, declaring:

I am the only candidate for governor with both a proven track record and a clear vision to deliver results for New Mexico’s tribal communities. I am honored to have received this important endorsement. . .As the tribe with the largest land mass in New Mexico, the Jicarilla Apache Nation support marks the first tribal nation endorsement of the election and a strong sign of Sam’s growing momentum.

Haaland has significant Native American support from around the nation, including financially, and she has announced some endorsements of her own:

She has been endorsed by the Jemez, Santo Domingo and Picuris pueblos, as well as former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez and by advocacy groups NM Native Vote, Native Organizers Alliance and Advance Native Political Leadership.

Haaland backers note that women are not traditional leaders in Native American communities and that may be helping Bregman pick up his endorsements. 

With the official backing of one pueblo and one tribe Bregman continues to dent the Haaland campaign's original thesis that her nomination is inevitable.  

ABOUT THE JICARILLAS

The background:

The U.S. Census Bureau counted 2,596 residents in 2022 and 3,176 in more recent estimates. Over 95% of tribal members live in or near Dulce, New Mexico, the tribal headquarters. About half of the members speak the Jicarilla language fluently, primarily older individuals, and around 70% practice an organized religion, often Christianity blended with traditional beliefs. The tribe's population has rebounded from near-extinction threats in the early 20th century, but like many Apache groups, their language is endangered.

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Has all crime all the time seen its day in the sun in Santa Fe? 

That's the question percolating as Wall-Leaners, Alligators and legislative sages assess the initial agenda Gov. Lujan Grisham put forth for the special legislative session she has called for October 1. 

Even though it was the issue that MLG first said would lead her to call her seventh special, crime was nowhere near the top of the agenda she released but reduced to a sidebar that a spokesman says is still being worked on in advance of the session. 

But no deals have been cut on long stalled major crime bills such as criminal competency standards and juvenile crime--and none seem to be in the making. And she won't force a showdown with the Feds by attempting to shut down immigrant detention centers. 

For a decade New Mexican politics has been drowned in legislative sessions and political campaigns dominated by crime but is there even one legislator who has been bounced from office over the issue? 

It is the polling numbers of the now lame-duck Governor and ABQ mayor that have taken hits during this long crime fight, but even they have been safely re-elected in its midst. 

The utter failure of the '24 special session MLG called on crime, after which she never regained momentum on the issue, was an early sign that crime may have peaked politically. As one of our Alligators analyzed:

Joe, legislators seeking re-election have walked over hot coals for several cycles and their feet were not burned. They were all re-elected. You can say it was due to gerrymandering but if there were a true uproar we would have seen it at the polls. Something else is going on. 

Crime, its causes and political impact can be mysterious to analyze but we do know that economic concerns are mounting.

BREAD AND BUTTER 

Bregman and Haaland

Passage of Trump's Big Big Beautiful Bill gave MLG the perfect excuse to pivot off of crime and onto the bread and butter issues. Her special session heads there with proposals to address federal cuts in food stamps, Medicaid and health delivery to rural areas. 

These are matters of utmost importance in a quasi-welfare state like ours and ones in which Democrats have the sympathy of voters. 

Not that the GOP doesn't have a point when they argue that the cuts are not scheduled to take effect until 2027 and there is no need for a special. State Sen. Crystal Brantley comes with this forceful video on MLG abandoning the crime agenda and putting softballs on the agenda like funding for public broadcasting.

If there is indeed a shift underway in the state political narrative the immediate beneficiary would seem to be progressive Dem governor candidate Deb Haaland and not moderate Dem contender and District Attorney Sam Bregman or fellow moderate Ken Miyagishima. 

Haaland fighting crime is like watching a fireman with an empty hose. But on bread and butter issues she can relate. Bregman? Not as much. 

In the ABQ mayoral and Santa Fe races a legislative pivot to the economy and health does not necessarily lessen the potency of the crime issue. There may be even more emphasis now on the responsibility of local leadership--mayors and city councils--to deal with crime spikes rather than watching Santa Fe continue to tie itself into knots.

NOT 25 

Our Aug 21 blog had September 25 as the probable date for the special session but did not say it was definite. The Alligators get a pass for that minor miss since they came close. No lashes with the wet noodle this time. 

LUJAN VS. KENNEDY

Sen. Lujan

Senator Ben Ray Lujan's clash with Health and Human Services Secretary RFK Jr. at a Senate Finance Committee hearing last week was met with mixed reviews across the socials.

Some supported Lujan for calling out Kennedy's performance while others labeled Lujan's behavior theater that veered to the bizarre when he wondered if Kennedy could understand his "New Mexico accent." 

The cabinet secretary bristled under Lujan's questioning, accusing him of reciting "gibberish" and "showboating" for the cameras for his 2026 re-election campaign. 

Lujan says Kennedy's health policies are endangering the public health and he should resign.  

The seven minute exchange with Kennedy is here. Lujan reported $2.68 million in cash on hand as of June 30. No Republican has yet announced a challenge to Lujan.

One other note. 

How unusual was it to see a scion of the Catholic Kennedy family, one of the most popular political clans ever in northern New Mexico, tangle with a Hispanic Democratic Catholic Senator Ben Ray Lujan? Surely that is politics turned upside down.  

QUANTUM QUANDRY

Reader Phil Leckman offers thoughts on our blog of last week pointing out that the excitement over quantum computing as an economic boost for the state follows so many others that never panned out:   

While not disputing the overall point of the blog post, I think you are pushing your argument a little too vigorously. I imagine that many in Rio Rancho - population less than 10,000 in 1980 when Intel set up shop, and more than 130,000 today - would disagree with you that Intel's operations there have had "no lasting legacy." Intel remains Rio Rancho's largest industry by far, with more than 3,000 employees and an annual economic impact of more than a billion dollars. 

And while Schott Solar's local tenure was brief, Albuquerque's long-term support for the solar industry also led to the rise of Array Technologies, now a publicly-traded multi-billion-dollar company with a manufacturing presence on three continents that's still headquartered here in New Mexico. Array - which is also responsible for New Mexico's only resident billionaire - is only one of many successful, profitable solar-industry firms that have taken root here. 

Are any of these game-changers on the scale of a Microsoft or Amazon? Perhaps not, but their long-term economic impact is profound and it seems misguided to minimize it. 

Our "legacy" reference to Intel was not meant to demean the company but to point out that the metro area has not gotten much spin off of other high tech firms from Intel's presence here. 

Also, Intel now employs less than 3,000 after 227 layoffs the company announced in July.

As for Array, the founder of Array Technologies who became a billionaire is Ron Corio. He founded the company in 1989 in Albuquerque, initially focusing on solar tracking systems. Following Array Technologies' IPO in 2020, Corio sold his 38% stake for an estimated $1.2 billion.

Phil offered some exceptions to the rule that when econ planners and politicians promise big, look for a bust. Reader Alan Schwartz added to our list of imagined economic booms:

Joe, don't forget the 2010 Greeen2V billion dollar investment plan that tanked. It proposed to turn "sand into killowatts." And don't forget the "we're in the running" stories for Tesla Model S, or was it their battery factory? Then there was the Space Force. And how's that Hydrogen hub coming along? We know about Maxeon but what's the status on Ebon Solar? 

Some days I think there is a stack of preprinted forms on the 11th floor reading: "We're in the running for _____hundred high paying jobs, with an economic benefit of _____ billions over the next _____ decades.  

Ron Nelson chimes in:  

Once again you hit the nail on the head. However you left out the multi-million dollar “super computer” that Gov. Richardson bought that never made it out of the packing crates.  

ALLIGATORS FOREVER 

Our blogs featuring analysis of the ABQ and Santa Fe mayoral races from artificial intelligence engine Grok brought a response from none other than one of the Alligators. These longtime blog sources are having none of it. One writes on their behalf:

We, the Alligators of New Mexico, protest your use of AI to run odds on the mayoral races. We resent those artificial prognosticators who know nothing of NM Politics aka the “dark arts."  

AI robots weren’t there when the deals got struck and they’ve never done a single lap around the Roundhouse. Where were these robots when us Alligators were suffering through our 15th statewide party convention or spinning a candidate’s poll with a local reporter? 

AI doesn’t know the difference between a chicharrón and a chico. They don’t know what we know here in the swamps of La Política! We’re the political odds makers in NM! Alligators forever! 

Yikes! Taken to the woodshed by my own Gators, proving again that no one controls those wily creatures.

Yes, long live the Alligators and our beloved La Política.

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