JOIN US FOR LIVE ABQ ELECTION RESULTS AND ANALYSIS BEGINNING AT 6:30 TONIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM AND KANW.ORG.

Turnout for today's ABQ runoff election probably won't top the record high of 134,000 that showed up for the regular election November 4 but it will be anything but shabby. 

Bernalillo County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh reports 82,993 early and absentee ballots had been cast at the end of early voting Saturday. 

Fifty-three percent of the votes came from Democrats; 32 percent from Republicans and 14 percent independents. 

If 40,000 vote today (the high end of expectations by the Clerk's office) the turnout could go over a robust 120,000. 

There are 366,000 registered city voters.  

FINAL HOURS 

In the final hours before the polls opened at 7 a.m. today the Democrats were warning against complacency, with Mayor Tim Keller's campaign messaging supporters that the turnout "is shaping up to be more conservative." 

Keller is seeking a third consecutive mayoral term which has never been accomplished.  

Mayor Martin Chavez won three terms, one in '93 and two in a row in '01 and '05, but was rebuffed for the threepeat in 2009.

Supporters of Darren White are arguing that the "election is going to be "much closer than anticipated." 

White's campaign laid down $100,000 for a late TV buy while Keller and the Dems had their formidable get out the vote machine humming.  

MODELING TURNOUT 

Dem analyst and lobbyist Sisto Abeyta says his "propensity model," which has served him well in the past, has the early vote tilted toward Keller, as expected. 

The model examines the list of early voters and matches them with data from their past responses to surveys, polls and other data.

Keller has been getting his voters to the polls. Conservative voters are turning out but there are not enough of them to win. I am not in the camp that there are widespread Democratic defections to the Republican. The table is set for the incumbent to win. 

Sixty-four percent of the electorate voted for a candidate other than Democrat Keller in the Nov. 4 mayoral election. Keller received 36 percent. 

However all four Democratic candidates--Keller, Alex Uballez, Louie Sanchez and Mayling Armijo together took 67 percent of the vote. 

Party identification is generally considered the strongest indicator of voter behavior.

KEY COUNCIL RACE 

It is the City Council District 3 race that is drawing the most attention from the Alligators and Wall-leaners as the election comes to a close. In that SW Mesa area incumbent Councilor Klarissa Pena, seeking a fourth, four year term, is said to be locked in a tight battle with Teresa Garcia, a domestic violence communications specialist and a fave of progressive groups. 

Consultants close to the race are calling it "a dead heat" but the progressives who helped reshape turnout in the Nov. 4 election are projecting confidence over Garcia.

If Garcia should win that would likely mean for the first time five self-declared progressives would control the nine member panel. That in turn would have the GOP councilors looking for a break away vote on issues they feel push the city too far left. 

That would be the reverse of the current council which has four Republicans and one conservative Democrat who often goes their way--but who draws a line on issues such as immigration and stays with his fellow Dems. 

ELECTION NIGHT

Joe Monahan (2007)

Our wall-to-wall coverage of the ABQ runoff begins tonight at 6:30 on KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.ORG. 

Join me as I anchor the broadcast with the latest results and expert analysis. Our team that did a great job in the initial election is back. They include:  

--ABQ State Senator Moe Maestas, ABQ state Rep. Joy Garratt, consultant and lobbyist Abeyta and field reporter Jenny Kinsey. 

A new addition is Amy Sanchez, a Los Alamos native, who is political director for the BernCo GOP.  She has three decades as a campaign strategist in local and federal elections. As political director Sanchez oversees political strategy, campaign coordination, and candidate training. That's plenty of experience for her to keep the Dems in line.

See you tonight. 

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