Keller

GOP problems are in the air nationally. Will they seep into next Tuesday's ABQ mayoral runoff election between Mayor Tim Keller and Republican Darren White: 

Republicans won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee. But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms. Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps’ roughly nine point win marks a massive shift toward Democrats from 2024, when President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. That double digit swing — on the heels of crushing losses in off-year elections in November — could be a harbinger of what House Republicans will face in the midterms next year, members and strategists warned.

Keller's mayoral success has coincided with the rise of Trump. To clinch his first term in 2017 he won a runoff election against Trump supporter and City Councilor Dan Lewis 62 to 38. 

In 2021 against two Trump Republicans--Sheriff Manny Gonzales and radio talker Eddy Aragon--he claimed 56 percent of the vote to Gonzales's 26 and Aragon's 18.

White

White has done his best to separate from Trump, saying the election is no more about the president than it is Joe Biden. But Keller's media has tied White's tougher immigration enforcement stance to Trump and warned that accelerated ICE raids could be in store for ABQ, if White is elected. 

Meanwhile, early voting continues through Saturday. Republicans are happy with the turnout in far NE Heights Council District 8 where over 11 percent of registered voters have cast ballots early as of Wednesday. That's the most of any Council district.  

However, overall city turnout so far shows the majority Democrats casting 55 percent of the ballots to 30 percent for the R's and 15 percent from independents and minor parties. 

GAMING AN UPSET 

The only polling in the mayoral runoff came from the Keller campaign shortly after the polls closed Nov. 4 and showed that he would be in a runoff with White. Their GBAO survey had Keller with 45 percent and White at 38. The key point is that the poll presented a steep climb for White but did not put the race completely out of his reach. 

If White were to score an upset, it could open the floodgates for Republicans wanting to join next year's gubernatorial race and could also generate a credible GOP opponent(s) to take on US Sen. Ben Ray Lujan. Both contests are currently in the control of the Democrats but maintaining control of Bernalillo County is essential for that to continue. 

The ABQ Journal, which has cut back on its polling in recent years, did not conduct one for the runoff. That has added a bit more uncertainty about how the race will finally settle.   

All the questions will be answered when our panel gathers at the microphones of KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.org Tuesday, December 9 at 6:30 p.m. to bring you the very latest election results and analysis. We look forward to being with you.

HAALAND PREEMPTIVE 

There will be more air to breathe for the '26 gubernatorial candidates once the runoff in the state's largest city is put to rest, but that doesn't mean they aren't plowing ahead for the June primary. 

Deb Haaland's past struggles with alcohol are well known and there could be negative campaigning over her two DWI convictions that occurred before she found sobriety in 1988. 

Voters already considered the matter when they twice elected her to the ABQ congressional seat ('18 and '20) but in a heated Guv campaign the issue could still come up. In a text message to supporters Haaland comes with this preemptive statement:

I have achieved 35 years of sobriety Most people running for office wouldn't choose to speak candidly about alcohol addiction. But I'm not like most people running for office. I'm Deb Haaland - a 35th-generation New Mexican, proud member of the Laguna Pueblo, and former U.S. Secretary of the Interior. Now, I'm running to be the next Governor. My journey to sobriety taught me that you must face hard truths to make change which is why I'll never shy away from the tough fights that lie ahead for New Mexico. Crime, poverty, homelessness, and addiction are weighing heavy on our state, and I'm ready to tackle those challenges head-on as governor. Because I believe if we're brave, we can heal. I promise to be honest about topics that other politicians might try to sweep under the rug. 

Alcohol abuse and Native Americans has long been a stereotype among some voters (as it has for Irish-Americans). It's obviously a concern in the Haaland camp and getting out in front of it now could put it behind her. 

Haaland might further drive home her point about addiction and sobriety by refusing to take money from big liquor interests--which she has.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.