There's a quiet confidence among Democrats on this Election Eve in Albuquerque. They have good reason. 

While the mayoral campaign between incumbent Tim Keller and Republican challenger Darren White has been intense, the Democratic lean of the city is well-established.

Bernalillo county has been instrumental in turning New Mexico into a Democratic stronghold across the board. It has been years since a Republican has carried the state's largest county in a statewide race. 

The GOP has had slightly better luck in the city of ABQ, capturing the mayor's office in 2009 and 2013. 

But '09 featured a three way race with two Democrats splitting the vote, allowing RJ Berry to run up the middle. There was no runoff and Berry won with 44 percent. In '13 Berry was easily re-elected but the Dems did not make a serious bid to oust him. 

Keller received 56 percent of the vote in a three way race in 2021 and his opponents combined for 44 percent. With Keller's disapproval rating at 47 percent in the late September ABQ Journal poll, some weakening could be expected. Still, a Republican mayor remains only a small possibility. 

That mid-40 range is a wall of resistance for White. The contrast and partisan divide between the two mayoral candidates is so stark that getting enough Democrats to defect may be too much of an ask. To win he would have to do it with a unified GOP, a big victory with independents and whatever conservative Dems he could muster.

Democrats are quietly confident but not exuberant because of the emotional turmoil in the electorate over the stubborn homeless problem. It's an issue that could prompt more party switching than they anticipate.

THE DECIDING FACTOR

The most memorable moment of the campaign goes to the yellow sweatshirt episode. That's where an unidentified Keller foe(s) apparently paid for sweatshirts and had them handed out to the homeless. On them was emblazoned the slogan "I Love Tim Keller." 

While that gimmick grabbed attention, the runoff has been mainly over the 19 percent of the vote that progressive Dem Alex Uballez captured November 4.

That vote appears to have steadily come back to Democrat Keller, with the Working Families Party the most prominent example. Other progressive groups who supported Uballez are now also on board with the mayor. 

If Dems do indeed come home to Keller it will be the deciding factor of ABQ Election '25 and he will take an unprecedented third consecutive term. And it will be those returning progressives who will be first in line to receive his thanks. 

SWEATSHIRT ORIGIN

Where did those memorable bright yellow sweatshirts that Keller condemned and that White said spoke to frustration over the many homeless, come from?  There are clues in this KOB-TV report

The sweatshirts were handed out at God’s Warehouse, a nonprofit feeding the homeless, according to a man interviewed by KOB. Chuck Aragon, the pastor at God’s Warehouse, welcomed the distribution but did not organize it. “They were young guys, two Hispanic and one said he was from El Paso,” said Aragon. Aragon took a picture of one of the men, who was in a gold SUV with Texas plates, but did not get a name. 

TURNOUT 

The County Clerk reports 65,678 early votes with some 7,000 absentee votes still outstanding as of late Friday. If the pundits are surprised again and the Election Day vote equals early turnout we would come close to reaching the city election record 134,000 set Nov. 4. If voting Tuesday backs off, that number could settle considerably lower. 

What impact a higher or lower turnout means for Keller or White is complicated. But it's easy to be part of the turnout. Here is a list of city voting sites for tomorrow's runoff.

PREDICTION CORNER

KANW Election Night

No guarantees, of course, but it's always fun to get the election predictions of the veterans of La Politica. 

We start with Greg Payne, Santa Fe attorney, former ABQ city councilor and political consultant for GOP Gov. Gary Johnson and ABQ Dem Mayor Marty Chavez. Greg has been analyzing elections for your blog for years. About this one, he says:  

A 54 to 47 Keller win over White would be a moral victory for White and a real wake up call for Keller. A 60-40 win is what Keller needs to have anything close to a renewed mandate. Keller only received 36 percent in the Nov. election. ABQ would love to pick someone other than the mayor for a third term. But I don't think they want White either. It's literally the "lesser of two evils" election. My guess is we end tomorrow night with Keller at 57 percent and White at 43. 

Former GOP state senator, BernCo commissioner and ABQ City Councilor Michael Wiener says enthusiasm among Republican voters and Keller's weak approval rating are the ingredients for a possible upset by White. "If it happens it would be a squeaker, maybe less than a 1,000 vote win." 

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas looks for "a single digit win" by Keller.  

A word to the wise--don't take any of those predictions to the bank, but do join us tomorrow night at 6:30 on KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.ORG as voters settle the suspense and get the final say. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.