If you're among those who believe the December 9 ABQ mayoral runoff election is beyond the reach of Republican Darren White and that Mayor Tim Keller will likely win a third term, you won't miss any polling in the race. But for those who think an upset lurks, the lack of an ABQ Journal poll testing their theory will be missed. 

The campaigns, of course, have internal polling which they sometimes release to spin the race but that's no replacement for an unbiased and reliable survey produced by the Journal. Their polls have been run for decades by pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling, who tells me:

There are no plans for a Journal Poll for the runoff election. If thst should change, I will let you know. 

That's disappointing for the politically-minded but not surprising, given the expense of conducting a poll for a city election with only three races on the ballot (Mayor and two city council runoffs).

The paper also did not poll the last mayoral runoff election in 2017 which featured Keller seeking his first term and in a runoff with Republican City Councilor Dan Lewis who lost in a 62-38 landslide. (Our '17 Election Night report here)

The conventional wisdom this year has Keller winning again but with White suffering a smaller loss than Lewis. 

In the Journal's survey of the Nov. 4 election Keller came in first and White came in second. The poll was conducted in late September but forecast the results for Election Night. Keller placed first and White second with neither getting the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a runoff.

Those results have given rise to debate over whether the city should return to the former standard of 40 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff or even entertain ranked choice voting to have an instant runoff the night of the election. 

With the cost of this runoff possibly topping well over $1 million, according to Bernalillo County, that debate could have some legs. 

HULL BACKS OFF 

Gregg Hull

In another closely watched mayor contest taking place in March in Rio Rancho three term Mayor Gregg Hull has decided he will not seek a fourth term while at the same time running for the GOP for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination. 

Hull's attempt to take two bites out of the apple were untenable and made his Guv candidacy appear less than serious not to mention the skepticism it may have caused among major cash donors. In easing out of the ill-advised double-run, the outgoing mayor said: 

Serving the people of Rio Rancho these past 12 years has been a privilege. We’ve tackled big challenges together, made progress on our infrastructure, built places where families and seniors feel at home, and set our city up for long-term success. I am thankful for the team effort in this great city to bring about needed changes and renewed long-term vision. Now, I believe it is time for fresh energy and new leadership to carry the city forward while I shift my focus on running for governor.

Now that he no longer has the mayoral campaign to take up his time, Hull can start worrying about the possible entry of cannabis mogul Duke Rodriguez who says he might spend as much as $2 million of his own money to finance a run for the GOP nomination. (Republican state Sen. Steve Lanier recently launched his candidacy.)

There are concerns that Rodriguez will turn off Republicans because he has given big dollars to candidates of both parties over the years and that marijuana legalization is still not supported by most Republicans. 

But GOP ABQ mayor candidate White had his cannabis company give $20,000 in campaign donations to Dem Gov MLG. White has since sold the company and rarely talks about legal pot. And here he is in the runoff.

Here is the bottom line for Duke and any other Republican gubernatorial hopeful: 

If it is seen that a candidate has a seious chance to take the governorship, all sins will be forgiven. The smell of victory for Republicans is much stronger than that of marijuana

From the ABQ City Clerk's office: 

Early voting will take place Monday, December 1 through Saturday, December 6 from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. at 17 polling locations across Albuquerque. On Election Day, Tuesday, December 9, 50 polling locations will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Absentee ballots will be mailed to voters who have requested them beginning November 18. 

The last day to request an absentee ballot is November 25. . .All absentee ballots must be received by the Clerk’s Office no later than 7 p.m. on Election Day. Same-day registration will also be available during the Early Voting period and on Election Day. 

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