Sanchez TV ad

Conservative Democrat Louie Sanchez and Republican Darren White are up with TV following Keller's first buy and neither wastes time in trying to chip away at the mayor's big polling lead. 

Sanchez counters Keller's first pollyannish ad that pointed to his eight year record and that said he has accomplished a lot more than "the news media is telling you about."

In the TV ad Councilor Sanchez, a retired APD officer, coms with a tough response, showing  homeless people strewn across city sidewalks and saying this in-your-face evidence is enough to deny Keller a third term. 

The 30 second ad that our campaign sources report has about $30,000 behind it is airing on broadcast and cable: 

Narrator: Do you believe a failed politician? 

Keller: We've made real progress.

Narrator: Or your own eyes? 

Tim Keller is lying, we can see it with our own eyes.  

And now he says “That’s why we need a little more time.” 

Eight years has been enough. We deserve better. Louie Sanchez has a plan to clean up our city. Safe streets, more jobs, and a government that works. Vote for change. Vote Louie Sanchez for Mayor. 

The "lying eyes" reference the Sanchez ad makes is similar to what we wrote on our August 25 blog when we reviewed Keller's annual State of the City Address: 

"Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?" ABQ Mayor Tim Keller did not cite that famous quote from a Marx brothers movie at his annual State of the City address Saturday but that was the essence of the buoyant half-hour summary he offered to Mr. and Mrs. Albuquerque before a considerable crowd at the ABQ BioPark. 

So how does the Sanchez ad play politically? He polled at just 6 percent in the late September Journal poll but was getting 12 percent of the Republican vote. It is reasonable to assume that whatever impact his small ad buy has it will be mainly with Republicans because of its unabashed anti-Keller rhetoric and focus on the homeless problem. Undecided GOP voters were at 36 percent in the poll. 

What the ad will not do is immediately vault Sanchez past leading Republican mayoral candidate Darren White who came in second and polled 16 percent in the Journal poll. However Sanchez is now more of a threat to White for second place. If he can put more financial muscle behind his well-produced, hard-hitting ad there is an outside chance he could displace the former sheriff. 

None of the candidates are competing with Keller financially who was the only one to qualify for over $750,000 in public campaign funding.

DAYS OF DARREN 

White TV ad

Meanwhile White is making his own play for more conservative votes by going after Keller for making ABQ a "Sanctuary City," a designation White says he would end if elected. 

His first TV ad, also hard-hitting and with much appeal for the anti-Keller crowd, hammers Keller for the 750 homicides that have taken place during his eight years at the helm as well as "tent cities" that White says he will take down on "day one." The ad says: 

Over 750 homicides, homeless tent cities everywhere. We need change now. Republican Darren White for Mayor.

White tells the audience directly: 

Eight years of failure is enough. No more sanctuary for criminals and the tent encampments come down on day one. 

The crisp narration by White displays his experience in broadcasting. No word yet on how much White is spending on the ad but like Sanchez, as of September 8 he had campaign funds of less than $150,000.

Polling shows 66 percent of Republicans are with White on the sanctuary issue while overall 51 percent of likely voters back Keller's decision not to have local law enforcement cooperate with ICE.  

For now the split in the Republican and conservative vote among Sanchez, White, Eddie Varela and Mayling Armijo is good math for Keller who was polling first at 29 percent and is expected to come out on top Election Night. But if any of his foes come with major league dollars in the final weeks things could get more interesting. 

How much Keller beats his second place competitor by would be key in setting expectations for the run off election that would take place between the top two finishers if no candidate reaches 50 percent. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.