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Tuesday, October 28, 2025Expectations Game: Keller Side Ramps Them Down And R's Ramp Them Up; Predictions That Incumbent Gets 50 Percent Knocked By Both Sides As White Attacks Sanchez For Going After GOP Votes. Plus: Turnout So Far Is "Sluggish" Democrats and Republicans both downplayed the predictions of those who think Mayor Keller could actually win 50 percent of the vote November 4 and avoid a December 9 runoff election, Republicans argued that despite Dem Councilor Louie Sanchez making appeals to the GOP, it is former Republican Sheriff Darren White who is consolidating his party's vote. White, however, is taking the attacks from Sanchez seriously as seen in the mailer posted here that claims Sanchez is "a Democrat trying to steal Republican votes." And: Democrat Louie Sanchez cast the deciding vote to Keep Tim Keller's Sanctuary City policy in place. We reported Monday on Sanchez and his chances of finishing ahead of White. A source close to the Keller campaign batted around a wide variety of possible Election Night outcomes in an afternoon phone conversation. All of them started with Keller finishing under 50 percent. The convo concluded with the source telling NM Politics with JM: We'd be happy finishing in the mid to high thirties. That's what you call resetting expectations. For Keller 50 percent would be a dream come true, considering he is seeking an unprecedented third four year term, running in a six person field and was polling at just 29 percent of the vote in the late September ABQ Journal poll and has an approval rating in that poll of 42 percent. While potentially unrealistic, the no runoff predictions could make it harder to get Dems out for Keller which concerns his camp. GOP consultant Bob Cornelius got high marks for coming down in the middle and framing the race as a question of whether Keller will be able to get 40 percent of the vote not 50 and whether White will be competitive with Keller by coming close to taking the top spot. We asked him for a follow-up: Keller is in a very defensive position, getting attacked from all sides and carrying the baggage of two terms. And White has not been attacked over his baggage. That won't come until the runoff
Meanwhile, the consensus view remains that Keller and White will face each other in a runoff. Other than that, your guess may be as good as those who work hard to try to be in the know. PREDICTION SUMMARY NO RUNOFF--Dem consultant David Alcon, Journal opinion writer Jeff Tucker; APD watchdog and reporter Dan Klein. SHOT AT NO RUNOFF--Greg Payne (Keller first, White second). RUNOFF--Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, Mayor Tim Keller, GOP consultant Cornelius, '21 mayor candidate Eddy Aragon; 2024 GOP Guv candidate Mark Ronchetti--"a tight race" with White forcing a runoff. We'll oversee the end of the mayoral drama next Tuesday, November 4 when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM radio and kanw.org to bring you live continuous results and analysis beginning at 6:30 p.m. EARLY TURNOUT The first takeaway from the early voter turnout in the city election is that it is down overall but trending Democratic as expected:
Turnout for the '21 ABQ mayoral race was about 120,000. In the first round of the 2017 mayoral election there were 96,655 ballots cast. It appears we are heading toward something along the lines of the 2017 number. Analyst Greg Payne said: In the Journal September poll Keller was polling 43 percent of the Democrats with 35 percent of them undecided. Alex Uballez was polling 9 percent of the Dems. A LONG WAIT Our reference Monday to the NMGOP being in exile and holding no offices in any of the state's centers of power brought this from longtime reader Steve Crespin: Joe, if you go back to my email to your blog of June 3, 2021 titled “Retribution For R’s, I said it would take a minimum of two election cycles (eight years) for the Republican Party to “begin” to recover from the disaster Susana Martinez and her inner circle left. It’s very possible it could take until the 2030 cycle to recover. She drove a huge wedge in the Republican Party. A good example is in your October 15 blog October 15th blog where you report former NMGOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr contributed $6,000.00 to Louie Sanchez for Mayor of ABQ. It’s going to take some strong respected candidates to start the healing. On the other hand, the party may not have "healed" from the Martinez years but she and they may have been forgotten. In our Monday blog we noted that a number of foes of Susana from days gone by, like Tom Tinnin and Harvey Yates, are giving money to Dem Louie Sanchez but so are Martinez supporters Robert Aragon and John Rockwell,who we should not have lumped in with them. Republicans are looking for a way to win and the old battle lines are finally blurring but as Crespin wrote there is still a long road ahead. WAYS OF WEH
While Sanchez is getting the support of two former NMGOP Chairmen, White is also getting two--former GOP Chair Deborah Maestas the daughter of former NMGOP Chair Allen Weh who is also backing White. Allen Weh has not donated to White directly but has done so through his CSI Aviation company. Weh's wife, Rebecca, made a direct contribution: Former GOP Chair Deborah Maestas Weh: $5,000; Rebecca Weh: $5,000; CSI: $5,000. MAESTAS CHALLENGER? Chatter is developing over a possible challenge to State Auditor Joseph Maestas for the Democratic nomination for the office in next June's primary. Sarita Nair, secretary of the state Department of Workforce Solutions is the name circulating. She is a progressive Dem while Maestaes is a moderate. Nair served as ABQ's Chief Administrative Officer under Mayor Keller Keller before being named to MLG's cabinet. Nair has made no mention yet of her intentions. Maestas has experience fending off a primary challenger. He beat back progressive Zach Quintero in the 2022 Dem primary and went on to win the November election. Often imitated but never duplicated. . . This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. |
  
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