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Monday, September 22, 2025First Scientific Poll Coming In ABQ Mayoral Race; Sunday Release Slated As Keller Challengers Still Scurry For Funds And Recognition, Plus: Massive Project Jupiter At State Border Wins Approval
Longtime Research and Polling President Brian Sanderoff confirms the poll will be out Sunday, Sept. 28. That's the good news. The bad news is it may be the only one. "Just one poll is planned at this time." He said. For those new to New Mexico and polling here, Sanderoff, 71, has been polling the state for the Journal for 40 years. Pundit Nate Silver's 2025 ratings of 27 national polling firms ranks Research and Polling as the fourth most accurate in the nation. That's heady territory for a New Mexico based business. The firm relies on in-person phone calls to prospective voters, the most accurate method of determining how they may vote. A scientific poll with a randomized and representative sample, rigorous methodology, and statistical weighting for accuracy--is a specialized service. There are not many firms around anymore that do it, with more reliance on the Internet for surveys. The personal phone polling is expensive with cost of a basic city survey estimated to easily reach $30,000 and more as the poll adds questions. As the newspaper industry has been downsized the Journal polls have been less frequent than past election cycles but at least one is conducted for the major elections and usually includes a list of issues that are covered over a week. That can't be easy but the paper, to their credit and their readers' benefit, have stayed the course. Sanderoff is also a political analyst for KOAT-TV but these days politics is only a small part of his company's business which also works for a wide variety of major corporate and government entities. STATE OF THE RACE
The Journal survey should pinpoint that support demographically and also indicate who is most likely to get into a run-off with Keller, if the Mayor fails to reach the 50 percent mark but does come in first or second. Whatever the poll shows, it will be difficult for the challengers to act upon the results. All of them are under-financed. Keller is now spending over $750,000 he qualified for under public financing and an outside PAC supporting him had $120,000 in cash at last report. Republican Darren White and Democrat Louie Sanchez, who has donated a hefty $150,000 in personal funds to his campaign, are both up with radio ads. Keller's campaign has signs dotting front yards around the city and Alex Uballez has a few as well. But most of the campaign has been taking place on social media which is a shot in the dark when it comes to reaching the most likely voters. That will now begin to change with paid media (and negative campaigning) becoming more noticeable. Early voting at the County Clerk's Annex begins October 7. That is also when absentee ballots will be mailed to city voters already on the list. To get an absentee ballot (the deadline to request is Oct. 21) info is here. In-person citywide voting begins Oct. 18. Election Day is November 4. History says well over half the vote will be cast before then. As for TV debates, none have been publicly announced. If any are held and all seven candidates attend, it would be hard for any of them to get an advantage. Often the stations pass on doing debates with such a large field or confine it to digital platforms. THE FORUMS  That will change with forums now scheduled where all or most of the candidates are expected to attend and which should generate media coverage. September 30--The business group NM NAIOP will host the candidates at the ABQ Sheraton Uptown, an event that is usually well-attended and reported on. Journal editor Jay Newton-Small will moderate. October 7--Bike ABQ & Strong Towns will conduct a a mayoral forum at 6 p.m. at the First Congregational United Church of Christ. October 16--The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors® (GAAR) conduct their mayoral forum at 9 a.m at the GAAR Event Center. Tickets are available via the link. JUPITER A GO  Opposition has centered on energy and water issues and tax incentives seen as too generous. But at a tense public meeting the Commission approved the bonds on a 4-1 vote, citing the 750 permanent jobs that the project is predicted to generate as well as a significant increase to the tax base of the poverty-stricken region. The money would be invested over a 30 year period with a $50 billion pop at the beginning. Austin-based BorderPlex Digital Assets is the company making the investment. They will not pay property taxes on the 1,400-acre campus and instead pay the county $360 million over 30 years--$12 million annually. AI developer STACK Infrastructure, owned by private equity firm Blue Owl Capital is a partner with BorderPlex. The enormous numbers involved are representative of the massive AI investment taking place in the nation. Jupiter will have four hyperscale buildings designed for high-density computing, capable of housing thousands of servers for big tech clients.
The BorderPlex Digital leadership team includes former NM Economic Development Secretary Alicia Keyes, working in government affairs, and George P. Bush, a nephew of former President George W. Bush, consulting on strategy. MLG has given the project her full support as has Dona Ana state Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee. The company's NM lobbyist is Vanessa Alarid. Las Cruces area Dem state Reps. Angelica Rubio and Micaela Lara Cadena have opposed Jupiter along with state Sen. Bill Soules. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics. |
 
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