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Tuesday, September 02, 2025Can AI Predict The Outcome Of The ABQ Mayoral Race? We Put It To The Test, Plus: Schooled By Trump: Latest State Broadband Plan Bows To Satellite Delivery So today we swallow our pride and ask AI--in this case Grok--what are the odds that ABQ Mayor Tim Keller will be elected to a third term? Grok's response begins with the positive factors for the incumbent followed by the negatives. Incumbency Advantage: Keller has strong name recognition and a track record, having won in 2017 with 62% in a runoff and in 2021 with 56% outright. Incumbents often benefit from established voter bases and campaign infrastructure. Financial Backing: Keller is leading the financial race with $756,000 in public funds, supplemented by a measure finance committee, totaling around $880,000. . .This financial edge could amplify his campaign’s reach. Policy Achievements: Keller emphasizes progress on initiatives like the Gateway Center for homelessness, clearing the rape kit backlog, and investments in parks, libraries, and housing. He also highlights moving the Albuquerque Police Department (APD) toward exiting the DOJ consent decree. These accomplishments may resonate with voters seeking continuity. Historical Context: While no Albuquerque mayor has served three consecutive terms, Keller’s campaign frames him as a “battle-tested” leader, potentially appealing to voters wary of untested candidates FACTORS AGAINST Voter Fatigue and Approval Decline: Keller’s approval rating dropped from 77% in 2020 to 49% in 2022, a 28% decrease among his own Democratic base, reflecting dissatisfaction with issues like crime and homelessness. Rising Crime and Homelessness: Critics, including opponents like Darren White, Mayling Armijo and Eddie Varela, argue that crime and homelessness have worsened during Keller’s tenure. Homelessness increased from 1,152 in 2021 to 2,394 in 2023, an 83% rise, which opponents use to challenge his record. Crowded Field: Seven candidates, including Keller, have qualified for the ballot, with notable challengers like former U.S. Attorney Alex Uballez and former Sheriff Darren White. A crowded field could split votes, potentially forcing a runoff if Keller doesn’t secure 50%. GROK ANALYSIS  Good stuff from Grok but it's still up to a real live political reporter to clarify as well as make the odds that Grok shies away from. First, Keller's overall approval rating was not 49 percent in November 2022. We told Grok to clarify: According to a November 2022 Albuquerque Journal poll, Tim Keller’s overall approval rating among likely Albuquerque voters was 33%, not 49%. However, the same poll noted that among Democrats specifically, Keller had a 49% approval rating, with 20% disapproving. This distinction is critical, as the 49% figure applies only to Democratic voters, not the general electorate. The overall 33% approval rating reflects a broader decline in support, with 40% disapproving and 21% expressing mixed feelings. And since Grok won't be an odds maker, it's back to us. So. . . THE ODDS Odds that Keller finishes first in the November 3 election? We put those at 1/5, meaning a $100 bet would pay only $120 with an 83 percent probability that Keller will finish first among the seven mayoral candidates on the ballot. Odds that there will be a run-off election between the two top finishers if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote in the initial election? We see a 70 percent chance that there will be a run-off or odds of 3/7. If you agree and bet $100 and there is a run-off, the payout would be $143.00. On the other hand, we place the odds of there being no run-off at 5 to 1, with a winning $100 bet paying $600. The reason the odds on a run-off occurring are not in the 80 percent or above range is because so far Keller appears to be the only candidate to have the funds for an extensive media campaign. That could change. Thanks for keeping us on our toes, Grok, but it appears you have a way to go before you take over the world. SCHOOLED BY TRUMP  That's a reason for mild celebration as the Trump administration forced the states to take another look at deploying satellite internet before letting $42 billion in federal broadband funds out the door, including $675 million for New Mexico. There are still 43,000 unserved and underserved locations in the state, according to the Broadband Office. In the second look required by Washington, the state is proposing 32 projects. Forty-four percent of the locations would get high-speed fiber, 40 percent fixed wireless and 13 percent satellite service as provided by Starlink and others. Today is the final day for public comment on the plan. There's an online form that has a list of technical parts of the plan to comment on but there is also a space for "other." We checked that and made comments supporting more satellite delivery than the planned 13 percent. The form to comment is here. We and a number of our readers have been pounding the table for satellite hook ups to mostly rural households where kids are stranded waiting for the costly and very slow rollout of fiber. But the Broadband Office was notorious in their opposition to satellite as were some Democrats in the legislature who killed a $75 million appropriation for satellite pushed by MLG. The inclusion of satellite in the state plan--albeit at a still too low rate--is a victory over the stagnant status quo that afflicts so much of the state bureaucracy. Like it or not, the Trump administration gets credit. So be on high alert Broadband Office Director Jeff Lopez. The slower the fiber rollout takes the more heat your bosses in Washington will be applying on you to increase satellite delivery and get this long delayed job done once and for all. Don't say we didn't tell you. This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
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