The list of challengers hoping to replace Mayor Tim Keller, who is seeking a third consecutive term, has now grown to ten. That's right. Double digits. That's the most mayoral candidates we can recall since the modern form of government was adopted in 1974 and when over 30 candidates competed to become the first mayor. 

All ten challengers (if they make the ballot) will be pounding the table over crime, the one issue that rises above the rest--as is usually the case in a city with a very long history of a crime rate above the national average. 

 

The difference in recent years has been the rise to even higher levels. But there are signs that the city in 2025 is finally getting a break in key crime categories as reported by APD.

 

Is it for real? Is crime really going down or have the number of people reporting crimes stopped reporting them out of fear, frustration over slow police response or because they want to avoid a hike in their insurance rates? 

 

When it comes to the homicide rate, there is no question it is down. Murder rarely goes unreported. 

--Through March of this year APD records 11 homicides compared to the same time last year when there were 21. That's a 48 percent plunge. 

--APD stats show a 46 percent dive in auto theft so far this year from 1,738 to 914, a change of 47 percent.

--Residential burglaries have dropped 19 percent for the first quarter of the year compared to last year.

--Robberies, says APD, are down 37 percent, from 234 to 148. 

Candidates seeking to replace Keller may or may not argue with those stats. Some will surely point out that while the crime rate is coming down, it is declining from record high levels and is still at an unacceptable rate.

 

MORE CONCENTRATION?  

 

Something else appears to be happening on the ABQ crime front, at least anecdotally. Crime seems to be even more concentrated in the SE Heights International District ("War Zone").

Will the stats (if they continue to show a crime drop) and the concentration of crime in the SE Heights  and not the city at large be recognized by voters as their personal reality, making it tougher on the tough on crime candidates? 

Years ago when I was advising former Governor Dave Cargo who was then running for ABQ mayor, I asked him why New Mexico was not more aroused by the high levels of poverty and crime. He answered, "Joe, it's because they don't see it."

How much the electorate sees and feels the city's crime problem (as well as homelessness) will be as important in this election as those APD stats showing the crime rate going in the right direction.

 

The bottom line? Perception is often reality. 

Gov. Lujan Grisham's controversial deployment of the National Guard to ABQ to aid in the fight against crime led to this NYT piece piece in which residents weighed the pros and con. 

 

Speaker Martinez

Meanwhile the Keller camp is not ignoring the push for progressive votes by candidate Alex Uballez, They come with this counterweight from state House Speaker Javier Martinez:
 

The latest and 11th official candidate in the mayoral race is Daniel Chavez, a parking lot owner who has now filed his paperwork with the city.