Tuesday, January 03, 2023Take Two: MLG Begins Four More Years; Can She Shake The Fate Of Past Second Termers? Plus: The Inaugural Speech: Guv Takes Fresh Tack On Drug Epidemic, Talks Up Economy And Educators; We Have The Analysis
(Full speech here. Video here. AP coverage here.)
Certainly she has an opportunity to defy that gloomy future given the massive budget surplus. But the past shows the public's patience with the incumbent grows short in the second four years. Previous flaws glossed over become magnified. Kind of like a long marriage. For Republican Gary Johnson (1995-'03) it was his reputation as a Dr. No that did him in. Seen as an admirable outsider casting a record number of vetoes and fighting the legislature and even his own party, Johnson went into the dumpster in the second term. That's when his negativity overwhelmed the state. After winning reelection with 54.5 percent of the vote, he finished his second term with an approval rating in the low 40's. That wasn't too bad when compared to Democrat Bill Richardson (2003-'11). Big Bill had one of the more successful first terms in state history, made possible by a bromance with legislators and a charm that the public found irresistible. He was reelected in an historic landslide, garnering 69 percent of the vote. But in the second term his avarice for campaign funds to fuel a presidential run led to several scandals and sent him packing with his approval ending in the low 30's. Republican Susana Martinez (2011-'18) was celebrated in her first term as the nation's first Hispanic female Governor, touted for national office and delighted the public with her tough on everything stands. Hubris and moral failings did her in, culminating with an infamous holiday pizza party and cash settlements caused by her behavior with her state police bodyguards. And her heels in the sand positions on key issues grew tiresome as the state stalled under the weight of the Great Recession. She finished with an approval rating in the low 30's. MLG has the most similarity to Johnson, a dictatorial side that came to the fore during Covid and that made her run for a second term closer than observers thought it should have been. The pandemic is gone and if she can continue a generally productive relationship with the legislature, perhaps she can escape the destiny of her predecessors. Perhaps, but don't bet your next state tax rebate check on it. THE SPEECH  We will approach opioid addiction as the epidemic it is, fighting tooth and nail to provide life-saving services to victims and families who have been torn apart by this horrific disease. We must approach the expansion of behavioral health care – including substance abuse treatment – as an urgent moral priority. Every New Mexican is entitled to achieve freedom from addiction and mental illness. . .I will be asking the Legislature to create the New Mexico Health Care Authority, a comprehensive entity that will expand access to services. . . Whether more bureaucracy is necessary to push back against the behavioral health crisis will be up to the legislature to determine. But if the administration is serious about a long overdue expansion of the overwhelmed system the money is there to fight. SCHOOL DAZE MLG and the Dem dominated legislature have yet to find the Holy Grail for upgrading the chronically poor performance of most of the state's public schools. But if making life easier for educators is part of the puzzle, MLG is on board. After ushering in large pay raises that made teacher salaries among the best in the region, she now proposes to pay their health insurance premiums. That should help attract and keep good teachers but. . . The administration's first-term foot-dragging implementing the historic Yazzie lawsuit settlement wasted valuable time. It is the advancement of at-risk students--mainly of color--that will turn the tide in the state's perennially low rankings. Those rankings were not mentioned in the speech but are the goal post that the public is eyeing as the money gusher pours over the Roundhouse. ECON BEAT On the economic front the Governor pointed to the unusually low unemployment rate as a measure of her first term success: We are, right now, a New Mexico that offers incredible economic opportunity to workers and students across diverse industries in every single community – with unemployment at its lowest point since before the Great Recession, with dozens more businesses starting up each year, and with job-creation numbers that would make any state in the country jealous. The low jobless rate is indeed gratifying but it masks serious and ongoing structural deterioration in the state's economy that began to tighten its grip during the Great Recession.
And while the unemployment rate is exceedingly low, the labor participation rate is among the worst in the nation at only 56 percent. That signals a population still afflicted by a lack of skills, disabilities, social ills such as the aforementioned drug epidemic and youth benefiting from higher education here but going elsewhere. This is a problem the Governor and legislature are addressing via free child care, opportunity scholarships, tax relief for lower income households and a robust effort to improve early childhood education begun in term one. It's a very long game that now includes a behavioral health revamp. SO? So where to now? Studies tell us that most big lottery winners end up losing their newfound fortunes. New Mexico is now that lottery winner with seemingly endless billions being generated from the oil boom. Can the state effectively deploy that wealth to break the mold of the past, start anew and finally rid itself from the shackles of generational distress? That's the difficult challenge facing the entire state in the infancy of this second gubernatorial term. No one said it would be easy. THE BOTTOM LINES Bernalillo County District Attorney Raul Torrez says he remains district attorney until a replacement is named by the Governor, even though he was sworn in as state attorney general January 1. He has named an interim DA to run the office until the appointment. Perhaps the dubious constitutional standing of that decision led to this news release blooper announcing Torrez's swearing in: Raúl Torrez to be sworn in as New Mexico's 32nd Attorney General on Sunday, Jan. 1, 2032 at State Capitol Building 2032? Hey, can the Guv appoint Brian Colón as "interim AG" until then? (Asking for a friend.)
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