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Wednesday, November 09, 2022

MLG: "The Forecast Is Four More Years" Blows Off Weatherman Ronchetti To Take Second Guv Term; Dem Night Across the Board; Vasquez Defeats Herrell; Stansbury And Fernandez Prevail; GOP House Stalwart Suffers Defeat; Early Childhood Amendment Wins In Landslide

(Roberto Rosales, Journal)
The red scare met the blue wall Tuesday night. 

Not only did Democrats successfully defend the governorship with Michelle Lujan Grisham defeating Republican Mark Ronchetti, they appeared to have defeated southern US Rep. Yvette Herrell, may have added a seat to their already overwhelming state House majority and ran the table on all the statewide executive and judicial offices. 

All of that after a persistent red scare that permeated the media that maintained Republicans were on the verge of widespread wins. The opposite happened and sent the state's minority party reeling and without a clear path out of the wilderness. It was an utter and painful defeat.

MLG posted a comfortable if not a blow out victory, holding a lead early this morning of 51.83 percent to Ronchetti's 45.7 and Libertarian Karen Bedonie's 2.45 percent. 

She padded her lead with a 40,000 vote win in big Bernalillo county and 35,000 in Santa Fe county. Ronchetti had a landslide in Little Texas in the southeast. In Lea county he took 82 percent; 77 in Eddy and 72 in Chaves. But that could not dent her big city wins.  

All election results here.

It was as if Ronchetti had been peddling in place since being defeated in 2020 for a US Senate seat by Dem Ben Ray Lujan. He lost that contest by 6.10 percent. This time he is losing by 6.13 percent. And that was after raising $9 million to the Governor's $12 million, plus even more more in outside money. 

On our KANW Election Night coverage ABQ Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil laid the forlorn performance of the GOP at the feet of the MAGA disciples: 

This was a backlash to the MAGA movement and the danger it represents.

Turnout backed that up with over 703,000 New Mexicans casting ballots, beating the 2018 record for midterm turnout of 701,000. Anger and big policy differences have become driving forces on both sides and is driving the high turnouts. 

In her victory speech, MLG also referenced the dangers facing democratic government and dubbed Ronchetti's campaign part of "the movement that that has fueled anger and division."

A BRUTAL RUN

The brutal nature of the campaign was still in evidence as the now two term Governor took the stage at the downtown ABQ Clyde Hotel. She taunted her opponent by declaring she had the latest weather forecast and that it read, "Four more years!" She also decried what she deemed his attacks on New Mexican culture and values coming from "an outsider." 

There was no concealing that she took the attacks on her character made by Ronchetti and his hyperbolic political consulant Jay McCleskey personally and there would be no soothing words from her. Instead there was public condemnation and a shunning.

At the Hotel ABQ Ronchetti lamented how the returns showed a continued divide between conservative and rural New Mexico and the cities of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces, saying they need to be brought together. 

The campaign was his chance to bring about that unity but his run exacerbated the division by loudly campaigning outside of the urban areas for the final ten days of the campaign, mangling his stance on abortion and accepting an endorsement from Trump.

SOUTHERN BATTLE 

US Rep-elect Vasquez
In the southern congressional battle, the forecast was for a narrow win by GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell over Dem Gabe Vasquez but it was Vasquez who pulled that off--ever so narrowly. 

He barely led election night but his lead grew to over 1,200 votes. He declared victory Wednesday and Herrell conceded.  

 Vasquez fulfills the Dems dream of a state DC delegation of five Dems. 

Herrell, a MAGA adherent, was caught in the storm over that as Vasquez took advantage of new Dem areas in ABQ to run up his total and added a healthy win in his hometown of Las Cruces. 

Meanwhile, ABQ Rep. Melanie Stansbury won her first full two year term going away, defeating Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 56 to 44 percent. 

Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez was none to happy with the redistricting of her northern district but she walked away happy last night, besting Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson 58 to 42. 

STATEWIDE OFFICES 

Democrats romped in the statewide offices with Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver scoring a 54 percent win and Attorney General contender Raul Torrez winning with 55. Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard also achieved 55 percent in securing a second term. Laura and Harry Montoya battled over the Treasurer's post. She won it 53 to 47 and Auditor candidate Joseph Maestas beat a Libertarian opponent 62-38. It was another Dem statewide sweep of the executive offices as it was in '18. 

In the judicial contests the Dems took two state Supreme Court seats and two seats on the Court of Appeals. The high court continues with five Dem justices. 

EARLY CHILDHOOD WIN

It was a runaway for the constitutional amendment that will allow increased funding from the Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education and public schools. Voters gave it a thumbs up with 70 percent approving the proposal. It took ten years to get the amendment though the legislature. But once it did and made the ballot, there was no organized opposition. According to polling even a majority of Republicans were in favor. 

STATE HOUSE

Rep-elect Jaramillo
House Speaker Brian Egolf cited the investments the Dem majority has made in education and other pet programs as the reason the electorate rejected Republican entreaties into areas they thought they had a chance. Egolf says the voters know the seeds of future success have been planted and believe there will be results. 

As of Wednesday night it was still unclear whether the Dems would lose a seat from their 45 seat majority or stay at that level. 

Our analysts said that redistricting played a big role in the defeat of GOP Reps Jane Powdrell Culbert in a Corrales based district. Powdrell Culbert was defeated by Kathleen Cates. 

Socorro's Tara Jaramillo claimed a Dem victory and pickup for the party in the territory formerly represented by Rebecca Dow. 

ABQ Democrat Cynthia Borrego, Reps. Pamela Herndon, Joy Garratt and Natalie Figueroa all survived attacks on crime leveled by their GOP opponents. The Herndon win was especially sweet for the Dems. The appointed Herndon now becomes the first Black woman elected to a legislative seat from the ABQ NE Heights, besting her foe 52 to 48 percent. 

The GOP would like to score a rare House win with attorney Robert Moss pulling ahead of Dem Charlotte Little in an ABQ NW area seat by a mere 12 votes. That one goes to a recount. (Little pulled slightly ahead Wednesday and the race appears headed to a recount. 

In Las Cruces prominent Dem state Rep. Nathan Small withstood a well-financed challenger to win another term, 52 to 48.  

A first blog draft based on info from State Rep. Moe Maestas had Rep. Jason Harper losing his seat. He did not. We apologize for the error. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

The bottom lines are to thank all of those who helped with our KANW radio coverage last night and with this blog during the long and often discordant campaign. It was not always fun but we got through it with support of fellow political junkies who fight off such matters with a healthy dose of black humor. 

Finally, congratulations to the winners and the losers. It takes a lot to subject yourself to the meat grinder that is today's politics. In the end it is a noble service to our democratic way of life. 

And that, gentle readers, is a wrap from ABQ, NM at 3:07 a.m the morning after. Thanks for the company. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022



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