Monday, November 07, 2022Election Eve In New Mexico; Predictors Take A Stab At Reading the Future; Guv Race, Herrell Battle, House Contests And Statewide Offices Weighed As Final Votes Are Set To Be Cast Tuesday Remember, these are only educated guesses. Governor--There isn't much deviation here. The vast majority of pundits and predictors believe Governor Lujan Grisham will be re-elected tomorrow night. Attorney and former state legislator Greg Payne, an independent who was elected as a Republican, has been analyzing the races for us since the beginning. Here's his final take: I see the race ending with MLG getting 53%, Mark Ronchetti 45 and Libertarian Karen Bedonie 2 percent. I sense Bernallio County coming home to the Democratic governor, with the help of President Biden. Ronchetti has simply not persuaded enough Democrats to hop on his bandwagon and that is essential in a state where Dems are 44 percent of the state's registered voters. The energy in the election is with the Dems, but not nationally where I see the House and Senate going to the GOP. In the Oct. 20-27 ABQ Journal poll Ronchetti received 9 percent support from Democrats. Republicans make up 31 percent of the state's registered voters and independents 22 percent. Others see Payne's prediction for MLG as too high, saying the Guv is not getting the turnout bump she needs and see her finishing as low as 49. The prediction site 538 has MLG winning the race in 84 out of 100 simulations. CONGRESS SEATS
I have never thought she was very vulnerable and as the campaign wraps it's clear she is the frontrunner. The race will be relatively close but not in recount territory with Herrell getting 53 percent and Democratic challenger Gabe Vasquez finishing with 47. Polling has shown a much tighter race--including Herrell's own polling--and some Dem consultants we talked with are sticking with their prediction that Vasquez will eke out a one point win. But GOP consultant Bob Cornelius says: This is a nationally watched race but the Democrats never seemed to hit their stride. Vasquez was waylaid when his old social media accounts were discovered--accounts he tried to hide. And he's too liberal. The district may be more Dem friendly but it is still fundamentally conservative and moderate. Also, that district will pick up the national movement toward the Republicans as they take control of the House. Dem Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez could be the biggest percentage vote-getter in the three US House races, say our Alligators and insiders. She has run one of the better campaigns and her GOP opponent, Alexis Martinez Johnson, has not made the inroads that national R's had hoped for. Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury is also expected to win re-election. It's her first time out since winning a special election for the ABQ area seat in 2021 so the GOP will be looking for any weakness as she competes with Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes. STATE HOUSE
Lobbyists, wall-leaners and assorted hangers-on now predict that the five major House races in the ABQ area will stay Democratic. The one where there is much suspense is District 28 where appointed Dem Rep Pamelya Herndon is facing a challenge from Republican Nicole Chavez. If this consensus is correct it means Cynthia Borrego and Dem Rep. Joy Garratt will prevail on the ABQ westside; Charlotte Little will beat Robert Moss for a NW seat and Dem Rep. Natalie Figueroa will survive a challenge from Republican Kurstin Johnson. That only leaves the Herndon-Chavez contest and that is now lean Democratic but some pundits say watch the Little-Moss one as well. The GOP outside of ABQ has a number of chances but instead of a big Republican night the election could end with a near status quo result with the 45-24 Dem reduced by just a handful or less. (There is one independent in the 70 member House). STATEWIDE OFFICES
The consensus in the political community is hat all the other statewide offices will also stay in Democratic hands, with interest in the state Treasurer's race where two Montoyas are facing off. Democrat Laura Montoya and Republican Harry Montoya are competing. Observers wonder if there will be confusion but believe Laura Montoya will take the win. No R has been elected treasurer since the 60's. AG ACTION ABQ Mayor Tim Keller is being scorned by the ABQ electorate in recent polling that shows his approval rating sinking to 33 percent but some of his supporters think Dem attorney general candidate Raul Torrez, the BernCo district attorney, is getting off light. He is expected to defeat Republican challenger Jeremy Gay in the race for attorney general but it's true that Torrez presided over the ABQ crime wave along with Keller. But unlike Keller, Torrez has avoided getting tagged for it. Gay did not have enough money to make the case but the race did produce the only humorous ad of the campaign that said if you want to see violent crime continue to rise you "Better Call Raul," a spoof, of course, on the "Better Call Saul" TV series. FINAL RALLIES Mark Ronchetti rallies the faithful at his final rally tonight at 6 p.m. at North Domingo Baca Park in ABQ's NE Heights. MLG finishes with a rally at the Carpenter's Hall at 3900 Pan American Freeway NE at 5:30 p.m. If you haven't gotten enough of these two after five months of nonstop TV ads, this is your last call. ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE
Dem ABQ state Reps Moe Maestas and Day Hochman Vigil will be on hand along with Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta. Republicans Barry Bitzer and Bob Cornelius will be manning the GOP desk. Legal Beagle David Buchholtz is back with coverage of all things judicial and former Dem state Sen. Dede Feldman is stopping by. And there's much more. So be sure to join us on KANW for the most informed Election Night coverage. It should be a bunch of fun. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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