Tuesday, November 08, 2022Election 2022 Heads For The History Books; Record Turnout Appears Elusive; Dems Not Fretting Over It; GOP Works To Get Their Flock Out Today, Plus: Election Night Coverage Begins At 6:30 P.M. On KANW 89.1 FM And KANW.COM Unless there is a surge in Election Day voting today, the state will not break the turnout record for a mid-term election that was set in 2018 when 701,654 cast ballots. That was the year Dem Xochitl Torres Small and interest groups supporting her bid for the southern congressional seat went all out in their field effort and drove turnout through the roof. The early vote this election was 439,248, according to the SOS. That's on track with 2018, but the issue is how many people will vote today? Election day voting keeps going down. In 2018 it reached nearly 37 percent of the total vote or 259,000 votes. We need 262,000 to do that this time and may be lucky to get 200,000. If we do we would have a total vote of 639,000 or about 47 percent of today's registered. If we get the 262,000 we hit 51.5% of the registered and our bet that turnout falls below the record would be in danger. Dem consultants, who tend to worry about lower turnout, say this time is different, that even though there are fewer Dems voting, their ideological profiles are more liberal and that means little crossover voting and more than enough for statewide wins. (But it makes the state House races trickier.) GOP consultants say momentum is on their side and as a result look for tighter races than expected. Today is the big voting day for Republicans and they hope to bolster their turnout enough to win the southern congressional district and cause problems for Dems in close state House races even as their statewide ticket still struggles. Constant negativity on the airwaves could be a reason for any voter decline along with a less competitive southern congressional race than 2018. We'll see if we get any turnout surprises to the upside in just a few hours when we broadcast Election Night results on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com. PARTY ON  Republican Mark Ronchetti will be at the Alvarado Ballroom of the Hotel ABQ in Old Town. Doors open at 6 p.m. Other Republican candidates will presumably join him there because there is no official party celebration. Our insiders tell us to look for former Guv candidate Greg Zanetti to make a play for GOP chair, if Ronchetti loses. If he wins, attorney Robert Aragon could be in play. It's unknown whether Steve Pearce will seek another term. In the hot southern congressional race both candidates will be in Las Cruces tonight. GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell will be at the Picacho Hills Country Club. As of last night her Dem challenger, Gabe Vasquez, did not publicly release where in Cruces he will be. As pictured here, former ABQ Dem state Rep. Idalia Lechuga-Tena has started the party early. Win or lose, that's never a bad idea. Good luck to all the candidates and we'll see you on KANW at 6:30 p.m. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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