Monday, October 10, 2022SurveyUSA Continues To Break With The Polling Pack; Now Gives Enormous 16 Point Lead To MLG; New PPP Survey has MLG With 8 Point Lead, Plus: Exclusive Insider Details On That Mike Pence Roswell Visit The firm, working for KOB-TV, came with another eyebrow raiser Sunday night when it said the Dem Governor now sports an enormous 16 point lead over Republican challenger Mark Ronchetti, an increase of four points from their September survey that had her 12 points ahead and which was also greeted quizzically in some political quarters. The latest poll was conducted October 1-6 among 570 likely voters. Here are the results: MLG--53%; Ronchetti--37%; Libertarian Karen Bedonie--3% and undecided 7%. As much as that may depart from the conventional wisdom, the SurveyUSA top line number is not out of the ordinary. In 2018 MLG won 57 percent to Steve Pearce's 43 percent. The poll was conducted after the TV debate that the GOP has been messaging was won by Ronchetti. The next and final debate is Wednesday night on KOAT-TV at 6:30 p.m. What is still a little out of whack is the low Ronchetti number. The base NM GOP vote is about 43 percent and he has yet to reach that number in the KOB post primary polling. However, he also failed to go over 40 percent in the late August Journal poll. Republicans have been fretting that the Libertarian candidate is pulling conservative votes from Ronchetti. This past week Ronchetti rolled out an endorsement from former Republican Governor Gary Johnson who was the 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate. UNM poly sci professor Tim Krebs says the Republican is losing the campaign because for a high number of voters abortion has become more or as important as inflation and the economy, the key GOP issues. MLG sports a huge 29 point lead over Ronchetti with women and is ahead one percent among men in the SurveyUSA. The main takeaway from the poll is that MLG remains firmly in the lead and the race remains "lean Democratic" until SurveyUSA's numbers are confirmed by another poll showing a large lead. If that happens the race moves to the "likely Democratic" column. A new PPP poll released Sunday has MLG with an eight point lead--48 to 40 with the Libertarian getting 7 percent and undecided at 6 percent. The survey was conducted October 6 and 7 among 806 voters and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent There will be more polls but the one most awaited is the second ABQ Journal poll now scheduled for release October 30. In reporting the poll KOB said that the race was still far from over. They may have been looking at the Sept 8-11 Emerson College Poll done for their rival KRQE-TV that had it 48 to 43 percent. The 16 point lead SurveyUSA gives MLG means this race is over. Finished. Kaput. That big of a lead is way outside the poll's 5.8 percent margin of error. OTHER RESULTS Dem Raul Torrez carried a 17 point lead into the final month in the Survey USA poll, getting 50 percent to Jeremy Gay's 33 percent. Dem Sec. of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver still has not broken the magic 50 mark against her Hispanic Republican challenger. SurveyUSA called it 47% for MTO; 32% for Republican Audrey Trujillo and 3% for the Libertarian candidate. The incumbent is still on track, however, for a sizable victory. INSIDE THE PENCE VISIT
We gave the state heads-up back on September 27 on the upcoming Roswell fund-raiser featuring former Vice-President Mike Pence for GOP Guv candidate Ronchetti. But when Pence arrived last Thursday afternoon there was no further word from him or Ronchetti's camp on where the fund-raiser would be held and by whom. That's not shocking given that Pence has had a falling out with Trump and SE NM is a hotbed of support for the former president. In fact, Pence's visit was derided on social media by some Republicans as a visit by a RINO for RINO Ronchetti (Republican in name only.) The media was unable to discover what Pence was up to so we sent in our trusty Alligators to dig out the facts. They report that the fund-raiser for Ronchetti--going off at $5,000 a pop--was held at the Roswell home of attorney and Roswell Probate Court Judge Clarke Coll. He is the brother of Eric Coll, the chair of the Chaves County GOP. The father of Clarke and Eric Coll is Chuck Coll, whose brother was the late well-known GOP and Dem state Rep. Max Coll. He died in 2014 at age 82. What's interesting is that Max Coll made a famous party switch from Republican to Democrat in 1983 when Dem Toney Anaya was governor. He had moved from Roswell, where he was first elected, to Santa Fe and continued to serve in the state House from a district there, first as a Republican and then as a Democrat. He was, in fact, a RINO of his day. He was awarded the chairmanship of the House tax committee as a reward for his switch. Why Ronchetti risked bringing in Pence a month before the election when he must unite all wings of the GOP is a good question. Of course, money is always a reason and he and Pence worked hard to collect that cash without drawing much public attention to the matter. The picture posted here of Pence and Ronchetti at the Coll home is from Pence's social media. Earlier Thursday Pence visited Artesia and was briefed by officials on the Permian Basin oil boom. It's home to many a multi-millionaire who Pence will seek donations from if he makes a a '24 presidential run. That visit was not blacked out but received minimal news coverage. When all was said and done Pence sent out this tweet: I’m supporting @MarkRonchettiNM because he is a proven Conservative who will end the crime wave plaguing New Mexico, get this state’s economy running at full speed, and bring down the inflation that Joe Biden has unleashed on our country! PROTECTING THEIR OWN Just as you might have thought, the final 2021 redistricting of the state legislature was done by incumbents determined to protect themselves: New Mexico lawmakers protected themselves and their colleagues when they redrew political district maps crafted by a 2021 nonpartisan advisory commission, shielding incumbents of both parties from competition and making legislative elections less competitive, according to a new 59-page report co-authored by UNM political science professor Gabriel Sanchez. The study found no evidence that New Mexico Democrats, who have strong majorities in the House and Senate, politically gerrymandered their districts, a conclusion based on statistical analysis conducted by Sanchez’s co-author and University of Georgia professor David Cottrell. “The protection of incumbents was the greatest source of gerrymandering this session,” the authors concluded, based on the analysis and interviews with experts. The full report is here. THE BOTTOM LINES Join me at 5 p.m. today on KKOB 96.3 FM radio as we kick the NM political football around with TJ Trout. . . From Las Cruces: SouthWest Organizing Project and Citizens for Non-Partisan Civic Engagement will be hosting a candidate forum for the Doña Ana County Sheriffs race. It will take place on Tuesday, October 11th from 5-8PM in Old Mesilla at the historic Palacios Bar located at 2600 Avenida de Mesilla Ave. . . The name of the director of the FBI was misidentified in a news release from MLG's office that we ran a quote from. His correct name is Christopher Wray. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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