Tuesday, October 25, 2022Election '22: Two Weeks To Go To Election Day But Heavy Early Voting Will Again Rule The Day, Also: Guv Poll Has Ronchetti Taking One Point Lead, Plus: Decade Long Battle For Early Childhood Amendment To end With Voters' Decision; A Skeptic And An Advocate Have A Final Debate
The SOS reported Monday about 84,000 have voted--56 percent of them Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. Our analysts are anticipating turnout of about 700,000 voters (or more). That's similar to the 2018 gubernatorial turnout--which gets us to that 12 percent figure of those already done doing their duty and now tuning out the nonstop TV ads that continue to bombard our enchanted airwaves. Even as the number of persuadable voters drops dramatically with early voting, the campaigns will go on. Today Vice-President Kamala Harris is in ABQ to discuss abortion rights and attend a fund-raiser for MLG. President Biden's approval rating in the state in the most recent test was 47 percent which means it is higher in Blue Bernalillo County where Harris will be.Harris is friendly with the Governor. She presided over MLG's May 21 wedding to Manny Cordova at the VP residence. There were no pictures released of the event but that won't be the case today as Harris and her try to generate enthusiasm among women voters who have been crucial to MLG's success. Both MLG and Republican nominee Mark Ronchetti campaigned over the weekend to spark voter interest in their respective bases. Ronchetti headed to the more conservative SE and SW to campaign. MLG went north to Taos County and to ABQ's westside to campaign in that heavily Hispanic area. In the 2020 NM election--amid the pandemic--only 16 percent of the votes were cast on the actual Election Day. Hitting that number again may not be in the cards. Still, it will be very high and pressures candidates to rush out any potent messages still stashed away at headquarters. A RONCHETTI POP
The Trafalgar poll taken Oct. 19-21 shows Ronchetti leading MLG 46.6 percent to 45.5% with the Libertarian getting 3.9% and undecided at 4.0 percent. MOE is 2.9 percent. The latest public poll before this one was a PPP survey taken Oct. 6 and 7 that had MLG winning 48 to 40. The Trafalgar poll comes after hard-hitting crime ads from the GOP Guv Association and the Ronchetti campaign that for a number of days went unanswered. Instead MLG's lawyers tried--unsucccessfully--to get the ad pulled. Finally they did come with a response but there appears damage was done by the well-financed onslaught. The ads include one accusing her of releasing a notorious inmate from prison early and another featuring the grandparents of his murder victim urging her defeat. More ads along those lines are expected in the final days. We criticized the first 60 second ad as perhaps not being tight enough, but we've been proven wrong before, and unlike the campaigns we don't have focus groups testing commercials. We shall see. However, this poll does have some issues, says veteran analyst, attorney and former state legislator Greg Payne: I do believe MLG is backsliding from her high water mark but this survey is weighted with 57 percent Anglos. That is about ten points too high. And it has Hispanic voters at 31 percent of the projected electorate. That may be low. So, I believe she is still ahead but her response to the crime attacks has been flaccid and she may be taking too much for granted. Ronchetti is on offense and she does need to take action. Trafalgar gets good grades from the pundits who rate pollsters but the demographic mix here does present polling challenges. Still, the national environment is not MLG's friend. For now team Ronchetti will make hay over the small polling lead and try to create momentum from it. And the Dems will be on alert not to take their foe lightly. Meanwhile, the state will now eagerly await the final ABQ Journal survey to be released Sunday, October 30 and that has a long record of accuracy and NM experience. In their first poll in late August they had MLG leading Ronchetti 47 to 40 percent. With the inclusion of the Trafalgar survey, the Real Clear Politics average of all the latest polls has MLG leading Ronchetti by 3.7 percent. A GRUELING BATTLE ENDS  Amendment # 1 is on the ballot and took a decade to get there, finally overcoming conservative opposition after longtime Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith was defeated in the 2020 primary election. Throughout the lengthy battle the public has been supportive of the cause, believing that increasing the annual amount of money drawn from the over $21 billion Land Grant Permanent School Fund from an average of 5.0 percent a year to 6.5 percent of the fund is a way to start a long march to reversing the state's perennially low education rankings. But there is one more leg of the debate to go and skeptics remain. We have thoughts from one of them and then from a longtime amendment advocate. First here's that skeptic--reader Ron Nelson: Joe, I understand that you’re a big advocate of increasing education funding through the Permanent School Fund. I’m all for anything that provides improvement of our dismal and dysfunctional educational system. My concern is about voting for a blank check. Where’s the plan for the spending and evaluation of those dollars spent? I believe throwing dollars into the unknown “for the kids” has not moved the needle out of our current ranking of last place in eduction. I have read about studies that have boasted positive outcomes but longer term analysis has shown those outcomes don’t necessarily result in better outcomes in our pre-K and regular kindergarten programs and graduation rates. My other skepticism is how implementation of the new money will take an army of highly trained support and educational personnel. How will these personnel be available to rural areas where these services are most needed? The last I looked our state agencies that provide support services for the Development Disabilities waiver (DD waiver) population is severely understaffed. Personally, I’d like to see pilot programs with full transparency with spending and outcomes, before we empty the piggy bank. THE ADVOCATE
New Mexicans have the great privilege of practicing their civic duty by voting for Constitutional Amendment #1 in the upcoming election. The long- awaited ballot initiative was debated and vetted for 10 years and in 2021 the legislature came together to place the early Childhood Constitutional Amendment on the ballot. Early Childood Education Cabinet Secretary Elizabeth Groginsky reported that the unmet need for Early Childhood programs from pre-natal to 5 years old is over $500 million. The increased distribution from the Permanent Fund, as needed as it is, will not meet the entire unmet need. There have been arguments made that the state is currently flush with cash from gas and oil; the reality is the children of New Mexico deserve a sustainable source of revenue, and not be on the oil roller coaster which has proven to have robust years and bust years. This fluctuation affects sustainable funding for essential programs such as Home Visiting which provide families with optimal skills in parenting, thereby enabling their child to reach their full potential. As any good business venture first seeks a line of credit before building or expanding, this analogy illustrates how the passage of Constitutional Amendment #1 makes available the funding to address the waiting lists for programs as well as the funding for the development, operation and replication of proven existing programs. The argument was made that as expansion takes place, some funds may not be expended. The good news is that those funds are retained in trust as capacity is built and services are rendered. The state will not be able to continue the current reimbursement for child care without new funds from the Constitutional Amendment. As expansion takes place, the state agencies which allocate funding to private contractors will need to be held accountable. This falls squarely on elected officials and the public. The very same advocates who have worked diligently for a decade to have Constitutional Amendment #1 become a reality will continue to advocate for accountability, quality and proven outcomes. We must believe in our elected officials and our advocacy organizations, that the common good is searched for and that whatever bumps in the road appear will be leveled out with time. The opposition likes to point out the funding and outcomes of K-5 Plus. We need to point out that K-5 Plus is for kindergarten to 5th grade, and that this is not the population that Constitutional Amendment #1 addresses. That comparison would be apples to oranges. Building capacity will take time but, as it builds, it will also be building jobs in every urban and rural community in New Mexico. The vast majority of New Mexicans have understood that high-quality Early Childhood programs such as Pre-K, Home Visiting and childcare do make a difference in the positive trajectory of our children’s well-being, with the Albuquerque Journal’s August polling showing bipartisan support of 69%. (55 percent of Republicans supported the amendment.) If the voters of New Mexico have the wisdom to elect our public officials, they also have the collective wisdom to pass Constitutional Amendment #1. DIGGING DEEPER
The home visiting that the amendment would finance is especially compelling to some amendment advocates who say that getting more direct assistance into the homes of newborns could be another weapon in spotting and combatting the child abuse and trauma that is widespread and that has contributed to the state's dismal education standings and its high crime rate. The amendment would mean about $200 million more a year for education--60 percent for early childhood and 40 percent for the public schools to address the education needs of the many students at risk of failure. The great majority of them are from low income families of color who were the subject of the Yazzie-Martinez lawsuit that ended with a district court finding the state was violating its Constitution by not providing then with adequate education. The Permanent Fund's value fluctuates with the rise and fall of stocks and bonds in which much of the fund is invested. If its value were to fall below $17 billion, state lawmakers could halt the extra distributions for early childhood. The Fund has had robust growth in recent years because of the boom in oil and gas. Royalties from oil and gas production on state lands are the main source of income for the fund which was established at statehood in 1912. There has been no organized opposition to the amendment. Here is one of the TV ads from the coalition of groups supporting the proposal. We urge your support. This is the home of New Mexico Politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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