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Thursday, October 20, 2022

Candelaria Bows Out Of Senate And Race Is On To Replace Him; Rep. Moe Maestas In Pole Position, Plus: Heating Up: Consultant McCleskey Unleashes The Nukes--Again, Also: BernCo Sheriff Showdown And Columnist Belshaw Dead In ABQ

Candelaria & Maestas (Journal)
Within minutes of ABQ state Senator Jacob Candelaria making good on his promise to resign his state senate seat, politicos were counting votes on the Bernalillo County Commission which will choose Candelaria's replacement for the seat he has held since 2013. 

That vote-counting led them immediately to ABQ Dem state Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas who quickly announced he will file an application with the commission to become the new senator and fill out the two years left on Candelaria's term. 

Maestas, whose westside House district overlaps with Candelaria's senate District 26, appears to have the votes.

Our Alligators and insiders note that it will take the support of three of the five commissioners to win the appointment. They pointed to Dem Commissioners Michael Quezada, Charlene Pyskoty and Adriann Barboa as the likely Moe supporters.

The timing is important. Progressive Dem Eric Olivas is running in November for the Pyskoty East Mountain seat and if he won he would not be prone to support Maestas. He beat Pyskoty in the June primary. 

Others are expected to seek the appointment but Maestas, an attorney who has served 13 years in the House, has angled for it since Candelaria made it known he was leaving because of dissatisfaction with the direction of the senate and governor and to devote more time to family.

Candelaria, 35, started as a Democrat but switched to independent as his disagreements with Gov. Lujan Grisham and the senate Dem leadership grew. He submitted his resignation letter to the Secretary of State Wednesday, saying:

As a private citizen, I pray that our Legislature will commit itself to real cultural and institutional reform. It is a rare exception to the rule when a bill is voted up or down on its merits. Instead, all too often, political tribalism and personal political ambition matter more than the common good.

The now former senator said a return to politics someday is not out of the question but for now he wants to shed the limelight. 

Candelaria, a Princeton grad and attorney, was the first openly gay male to be elected to the 40 member Senate and at 25 one of the youngest senators in state history--if not the youngest. 

He will also be remembered for an important challenge of the Governor's powers that led to a state Supreme Court ruling that said federal relief funds can't be spent without approval from the legislature. 

SENATOR MAESTAS?

 Barboa
If Maestas, 54, gets the senate appointment the county commission would then meet to name a replacement for his District 16 House seat. Progressives have made it known they would field a candidate to replace Maestas who they have sparred with over the years. 

That's why Maestas rounding up the support of progressive Commissioner Barboa is of interest. Barboa requested the assistance of Maestas and ABQ state Rep. Javier Martinez recently in securing a controversial $50,000 capital outlay appropriation. It was approved by lawmakers but has been stalled by the state after an investigative report by KRQE-TV found it to be wanting. 

Also, the progressive community in Barboa's SE Heights district is not monolithic. It has been divided and she beat a fellow progressive in her 2020 primary there.

If Maestas is appointed and runs for a full four year term for the seat in 2024, progressives will no doubt challenge him. They have crossed horns often with Vanessa Alarid, a well-known lobbyist and the wife of Maestas who represents Santolina, the developers of a proposed giant and controversial housing development in the western part of the county. 

That more than a decade of seniority Maestas has in the House would not transfer to the senate. 

HEATING UP

The heat is on. Firebrand political consultant Jay McCleskey, down to a few shots left to turn around the Guv race for client Mark Ronchetti, comes with an emotional spot featuring the grandparents of a slain woman blaming her death on MLG and urging voters to defeat her. 

It's par for the course for the controversial slash and burn consultant whose tactics often come under fire but who believes ultra-negative is the only way to go in a campaign's final days when you are trailing. 

In this case he's up against a Democratic firewall that successfully pushed him back in the 2020 US Senate race when he handled Ronchetti against Dem Ben Ray Lujan and also in '21 when he tried without success to put Sheriff Manny Gonzales into the ABQ mayor's chair. 

The scorching attack ad features the grandparents of Monique Gonzales who was allegedly murdered by Chris Beltran who the Ronchetti campaign and the Republican Governors Association argue was wrongfully released from prison twice by the MLG administration and resulted in him killing his ex-girlfriend, Monique. In the ad, the woman's grandmother reaches for tissues as she mourns her daughter's death. 

It's the kind of melodramatic theatre consultants go to when a race needs something big to happen. Certainly Ronchetti and McCleskey need something big. 

The RGA is pouring big dollars into the Beltran case to try to move the polling numbers and while MLG's campaign has not responded, the PAC for the Dem Governors Association is responding. Their new ad spotlights a fact check done by KOB-TV that shoots down the veracity of the Beltran attack. The Ronchetti camp on social media called the reporter who did that fact check a "clown" and said his poor reporting played into the hands of the DGA. 

Yes, the temperature and the tempers are rising and right on schedule. Widespread early voting begins Saturday. 

MONSTER BLOG ALERT

We're not stopping even as we yell: "Please, someone stop us!"

IN THE HOUSE

Tara Jaramillo
In our wrap on competitive state House races recently we left out District 38 featuring Dem Tara Jaramillo of Socorro and Republican Sandy Hammack because the finance reports were not available. They are now and they show Jaramillo with a big money lead over retired rancher and businesswoman Sandy Hammack as of October 3. 

Jaramillo, a speech language pathologist who is CEO of Positive Outcomes that assists persons with disabilities, had $105,000 in cash on hand while Hammack reported $32,000 in cash.

The new district is part of the one held by outgoing GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow so this is an opportunity for the Dems to add to their majority. That's a rarity this cycle since they already hold 45 of the 70 House seats. 

The district is a swing seat with 52 percent Dems and 48 percent Republicans. 

Jaramillo has been spending some of her money on this video. Hammack has been low key. She did not fill out the ABQ Journal questionnaire or appear at a forum held by KRWG-TV in Las Cruces. 

The district takes in parts of Socorro, Sierra and Dona Ana Counties. It's a race we will closely watch Election Night, November 8 on KANW 89.1 FM.

SHERIFF SHOWDOWN

John Allen
The race for Bernalillo County sheriff hasn't attracted much attention and that is due in part to lackluster fundraising by Democrat John Allen and Republican Paul Pacheco. 

Allen, who retired as a Sergeant after 19 years with the sheriff's department, is trying to juice things up before early voting gets heavy. He comes with this video endorsement from Attorney General Hector Balderas who says: 

John is a real cop not a politician. He's been putting away street criminals for years. 

Not sure if Hector is referencing Republican Paul Pacheco, the retired APD cop and former state rep who is running against Allen, but it sounds that way. 

Pacheco served two terms in the House before being defeated by Dem Rep. Daymon Ely in 2016. He is  a native of the North Valley and served 27 years with APD before retiring.

Paul Pacheco 
Allen is critical of outgoing two term Democratic Sheriff Manny Gonzales pointing to his "cozying" up with Trump and for resisting lapel camera videos for deputies before finally allowing them. Pacheco says he will bring "modern" policing to the agency, increase the number of deputies on the street and fight "catch and release" in the judicial system. 

Analysts give the edge to Allen because Democrats are now such a large majority in BernCo and because there has been little media on the race--surprisingly so given the crime crisis.

Allen would be the first Black elected sheriff here. Sheriff Gonzales was the first Hispanic--or one of  the first--to win the job. 

TURNOUT WATCH 

Early in-person voting began October 11 at county clerk's offices but already about 5 percent of the total vote for the election has been cast, based on our projected turnout of around 700,000. As of Wednesday morning 36,760 absentee and early votes had been tallied. That gets you to that 5 percent mark. Per state registration Democrats have cast the majority of those ballots. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

Belshaw
Jim Belshaw, a longtime and popular columnist for the ABQ Journal, has died. His front page musings ran from the early 80's until his retirement in 2009. 

Jim, a longtime reader here, honored us with occasional helpful hints, corrections and even praise--which was humbly received. To our delight he even attended a couple of our Alligator dinners. 

Jim was a cut above columnist and a real gentleman. His friend and Journal reporter Ollie Reed Jr. wrote that he suffered a stroke recently and died Saturday at an ABQ hospital. 

Jim Belshaw was 78. . . 

ABQ City Councilor Pat Davis is on a mission to save small local news voices in the metro. His latest acquisition is a little jewel--The Sandoval Signpost based in Placitas that for years has been doing yeoman's work covering the area. News editor Bill Diven faithfully alerts us to the latest monthly edition and it's aways a good read. This month's issue takes a deep dive (or is that a Diven?) into the Sandoval County elections. 

And that, dear readers, is the conclusion of the Thursday Monster Blog. We will now unwind by staring at people raking their autumn leaves and return on Monday. Thanks for tuning in.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . . 

This is the home of New Mexico Politics. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022

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