In the first official word from the MLG campaign on where the race for Governor stands, her camp says she leads Republican rival Mark Ronchetti by just three points:

From her Wednesday fund-raising pitch:

Using the apparent closeness of the race to raise money is a proven method, but the downside is that the small lead could energize the Republicans who can continue to argue in their fund-raising missives that the race is a "dead heat." Analyst Greg Payne:

Why release any poll that shows you below the key 50 percent re-elect mark? Why not just characterize the race as "close or "tight?" This specific citing of a mediocre poll for an incumbent governor in a Democratic state when there is no polling to cue the public looks like another unforced error from her campaign. It almost appears as if they are passing the hat for the GOP.

The MLG email does not say who conducted the poll or when but her campaign has signed with DC polling firm GQR. 

The results are interesting because they presumably come well after the June 24th US Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe and that appears to have energized the Democratic base around the nation. 

According to her own internal numbers, that energy boost has yet to come in any substantial way for MLG. 

In the April/May SurveyUSA MLG had a four point lead over Ronchetti, 47 to 43. 

On the other hand the big abortion push has just begun with Planned Parenthood now up on the New Mexico air with a scathing attack on Ronchetti's abortion stance--scoring him for his conversation with Rev. Steve Smotherman in which Smothermon says Ronchetti told him he is secretly for a total ban on abortion, not only the 15 week limit he claims publicly. 

And the huge referendum win in Kansas this week by pro-choice supporters was accompanied by heavy turnout. If that repeats in Bernalillo County in the fall, it would be deadly for the Republicans. 

Analysts continue to rate the Guv contest "lean Democratic" based on MLG's lead in the surveys. 

Other reasons for the rating include the Democratic lean of big Bernalillo County and the tendency of Democratic voters to firm up their decisions closer to the election while Republicans and conservatives tend to decide earlier.  

A three point GOP deficit--within the margin of error for most polls--about 90 days from the election isn't bad. And it leaves less room for error for MLG and the Dems--errors like this week's over the top video attack on Ronchetti claiming he is for defunding the police. 

MLG appeared in Sandoval County Tuesday to announce a new $14 million public safety complex, $5 million of which will come from her share of capital outlay from this year's legislative session. 

The interesting twist is how she extracted this quote from Sandoval County Manager Wayne Johnson:

Yes, that's the same Wayne Johnson who served as a GOP BernCo Commissioner, ran for Mayor of ABQ as a Republican and was appointed to fill a vacancy as state auditor by Republican Gov. Susan Martinez. 

And lest we forget--he's the husband of of Kurstin Johnson who is the GOP nominee for state House District 30 in the ABQ NE Heights seat held by Dem Rep. Natalie Figueroa.

Johnson made his statement about the safety complex in his capacity as county manager but in case he wants to go all the way, perhaps he can join a Republicans for MLG group. 

That group could include former GOP BernCo Sheriff Darren White, who is in the process of enriching himself in the legal marijuana business, has been a reliable contributor to MLG. And also former GOP House Minority Whip Dan Foley, whose insurance company employer holds major state contracts and along with his wife has donated the maximum $41,000 allowed to the MLG '22 campaign. 

Strange bedfellows, you say? In New Mexico politics you need a room full of bunkbeds to hold all the strangeness. 

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