Thursday, July 14, 2022State Of The Race; MLG And Ronchetti Battle Through The Summer Heat; Our Analysis Explains The Action To Date There has been no public polling of the race featuring MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti since that ruling June 24 but its recent injection into the campaign has put Ronchetti on defense and also has him making an offensive play. A Dem PAC attack had him quickly cut a response ad explaining his abortion position in more detail. He is attempting to shift the debate to MLG’s support of late term abortions but pro-choice voters--provoked by fear after an official high court ruling restricting abortions in the US--are wary of any debate. They want to keep things the way they are here--especially in ABQ where the race will be decided. In 2013 in a referendum that attracted national attention, ABQ voters rejected a ban on late term abortion (after 20 weeks) 55 to 45 percent. That gap has probably widened given the city's drift into even deeper blue territory, the repeal of Roe and the now stronger pro-choice position of younger voters. Ronchetti's efforts to try to find some middle position on abortion harkens back to when the ABQ metro was more of a swing area on cultural issues and the electorate was less polarized. In today's environment the abortion middle could lose you votes here on both sides. In this case, hard-core abortion opponents who are freaking out over his support of abortion up to 15 weeks of pregnancy (a new position) and the left where his proposal is deemed a threat to women's rights and akin to the restrictions in conservative states like Mississippi. He's doing what he can but the Roe ruling is a wild card that is causing Republican migraines in all of the Blue states. Note that we are not speaking of socially conservative Dems elsewhere in the state. We are talking ABQ where Ronchetti must come close to tying the incumbent in order to pull off the upset. His job until Labor Day is to hold the fort and avoid a surge by MLG in the public polling that could interrupt his fund-raising and leave him ill-prepared for the final crucial two months leading up to the November 8 election. He also has to work his way back to offense and to her character and the economy. Right now he is defending himself for being "just a weatherman" and the aforementioned explanation of his abortion stance. MLG ON OFFENSE  Of course, she is winning the free media battle as most Governors do, traveling to the rural counties and touting the many state financed projects coming to a town near you and garnering favorable local coverage. The GOP PAC ad attacking her "lavish spending" at the Guv's Mansion has prompted a response ad from her but that attack is more of a warm-up for what's to come in the fall. MLG's task is to continue to build the case against her rival and avoid any major mishaps. Her campaign's sleight of hand in a TV ad touting college scholarships is not major but it's not the kind of mistake a first class campaign makes. Finally, she must restore the bonds of trust with Hispanic and independent men that have been frayed during her first term. BREAKFAST TACOS  Jill Biden’s speech writer devised clumsy metaphors in an attempt to present positive images of Mexican immigrants. But what was Garcia Holmes’ response when Trump rode down the golden escalator on the backs of Mexican immigrants, portraying them as drug pushers, criminals and generally a blight on America? It’s easy to criticize opponents but more difficult to stand up for deeply held beliefs when doing so might cost you. For example, Liz Cheney. Kelley Vigil responds: Calm down Michelle Garcia Holmes. I personally took no offense to her comment, but ok, Garcia Holmes did. I sensed sincerity and a genuine affection from Biden. Maybe she could have chosen a better comparison to tout the uniqueness of Hispanic people, but her intentions were the same either way. Maybe grant a little Grace, Michelle. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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