Tuesday, June 14, 2022Recession Flags Wave: What Would It Be Like Here? Plus: New Mexico Sees Impact Of Tougher Texan Abortion LawThe Bear Market came crashing through the gates Monday as markets worldwide experienced sharp declines and the red flag warnings of recession were frantically waved. What to expect if the Bear comes calling on our enchanted land? --A recession would chop away at the too-high home prices in ABQ and Santa Fe--the median selling price in ABQ is now over $340,000 and in Santa Fe nearly $600,000. That's a market disorder ripe for a recession to correct. ---Recession could also halt and even reduce the astonishing price hikes landlords are slapping on their apartment tenants--anywhere from $200 to $500 month in one fell swoop. ---With massive budget reserves the pain of a recession would not be felt much in state government, unless the downturn was a very prolonged one. ---Funding for the national labs here, which have some of the highest paying jobs in the state, is on a tear as the DC hawks continue to win increases in nuclear weapons funding. That's a soft (and long-term) cushion underneath the state's economy. --Future oil prices are an unknown but experts say even if the price of a barrel of the liquid gold was sliced in half, the TX/NM Permian Basin would remain profitable and oil would continue to be pumped, generating funds for state government. Experts expect the boom to continue until at least 2025. Chevron just announced that it will be increasing its production in the Permian by at least 15 percent in the months ahead.) —Tourism is the most obvious casualty of a downturn here. Ski areas and hotels now have to fret over not only getting enough snow but whether the customers will be there to enjoy the white stuff. One of the sad ironies of a recession in New Mexico is that the spike in the closure of small businesses during the long Covid pandemic would mean fewer of them going out of business when and if the Bear paid a visit. --Recession would increase the jobless rate but with so many New Mexicans employed by government and with many others part of an aging population not in the job market, the blow could be gentle. Also, many potential job seekers in their 20's and 30's fled the state in the 2010's as the state's economy stagnated. No one wants to taunt the bear by crying "bring it on" but it is good to know New Mexico is less exposed to his recessionary fangs than our neighbors. DATELINE SANTA TERESA As the Supreme Court appears poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, which established a constitutional right to an abortion, we already have a picture of what the near future might look like: a fourteen-year-old girl from Dallas, travelling seven hundred miles to Santa Teresa, New Mexico, to visit what, post-Roe, could be among the last remaining abortion clinics in the Southwest. The report says at the Santa Teresa clinic near El Paso the girl's appointment to get a sonogram and obtain the five abortion pills would cost the family seven hundred dollars.
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