Thursday, May 12, 2022MLG Vs. Ronchetti Poll Match-Up; She Leads But Is Below 50 Percent; Both Have Work To Do, Plus Dow Gets Final Poll Shot At Changing Perception Of Guv Primary, And Latest AG Money Reports In a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KOB-TV in late April and early May among more than 1,400 likely voters, MLG led Ronchetti 47 to 43 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Error margin is plus or minus 3.9 percent. That's below the key 50 percent mark for the incumbent. On the other hand, she is leading and if she was in immediate peril she would be expected to be tied or behind. For example, SurveyUSA also polled over 1,400 likely voters in May of 2010 when Susana Martinez was on her way to winning the GOP governor nod. That survey pitted her against Democratic Lt. Governor Diane Denish and she beat her in that first poll 49-43. Martinez never looked back, winning the election in November with 54 percent. Denish was strangled from the start by the deep unpopularity of Gov. Richardson. So, MLG has a bit of a hole to dig out of but not a crater, but so would Ronchetti if he were to be the nominee. In 2020, he spent millions against Dem Ben Ray Lujan for a US Senate seat but came up six points short, getting 46 percent of the vote. Now he has spent over $500,000 on media in this primary and gets 43 percent in a head-to-head with MLG. Her job is to get above 50 percent in the months ahead and his is to try to break through a ceiling that keeps him in the low to mid 40's against Democratic opponents. MLG led in the poll in big Bernalillo County 52-39. Ronchetti won voters concerned about the economy, 49 to 40 but the Dem Governor carried those concerned about crime, 46 to 44. She won moderate voters 52 to 34. In a separate question, MLG's approval rating among those surveyed was 48 percent with 46 percent disapproving. ANOTHER SHOT  The opportunity for Dow will come when the ABQ Journal conducts a poll of the five way race. Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff confirms that the paper will continue their tradition of polling the primary race. The poll will be scientific using in-person phone interviews with the proper mixture of cell phones. The poll will be released May 22. The election is June 7. FIRE FINANCE Many are wondering about the financial impact of the wildfires that have ravaged large swaths of the north this summer. Dem northern US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez says: The federal government compensated the residents of Los Alamos county harmed by the (2000) prescribed burn-induced Cerro Grande wildfire – we must do the same for the residents of Mora and San Miguel counties harmed by the Las Dispensas prescribed burn. Leger Fernandez, Sens. Lujan, Heinrich and Rep. Stansbury introduced The Hermit's Peak Fire Assistance Act that would "require FEMA to design and administer a program for fully compensating those who suffered personal injury, property losses, business and financial losses resulting from the Hermit’s Peak Fire." About 200 homes have been destroyed so far. Some of those homeowners will have insurance that will help defray the impact. Those without insurance would be entitled to full compensation from the Feds whose Forest Service set the prescribed burn that led to the historic blaze. THAT HOT AG RACE  It's the cash on hand on May 2 that the candidates reported that makes the race a steeper climb for Torrez. Colon reported $911,000 in cash to Torrez's $382,000. Among the contributors Colón reported was $1,000 from state Senate President Pro Tem Mimi Stewart. And the campaign committee of current attorney general and Colon BFF Hector Balderas donated $10,000. But Colón was passed over by former Lt. Governor Diane Denish. Colón was the lt. governor nominee on the 2010 Dem ticket when Denish was the governor hopeful, but Torrez reports a $1,000 contribution from her and $500 from her husband Herb. Auto dealer Eddie Corley came with $1,000 for the DA. The winds of La Politica are always shifting. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022 |
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