MLG's approval rating in the latest Morning Consult poll is tantalizing for Republicans who are hoping to unseat her at the November election but the early odds still appear to favor her re-election, although the 57 to 43 win she had in '18 may look oversized today.  

The poll, conducted among registered voters from January-March, has the Governor's approval rating at 48 percent and her disapproval at 45 percent. That approval is two points away from the critical 50 percent mark that observers look for in weighing an incumbent's re-election prospects.

In the Morning Consult survey conducted from July to October 2021 MLG scored a 51 percent approval rating. The surveys each have a four percent margin of error, giving both sides ammo to make a case either for or against her.

The nation's top political handicapper--the Cook Political Report in DC--ranked the New Mexico gubernatorial derby "likely Democratic" in early March. 

Still, all but eight governors received support from 50 percent of their state's voters, signaling that Lujan Grisham has dug herself a bit of a hole.

With hindsight as foresight, it's clear that many voters now believe she overreached in her handling of the Covid crisis, keeping the state's restrictions on too long, causing more businesses to crash, schools remaining shuttered and inflicting stress on the population at large. 

Combine that with what her critics call a bossy attitude in handling Covid, her up and down relationship with the Legislature controlled by her own party and the hurt felt from a former campaign staffer settling the "Crotchgate" lawsuit for $150,000 and you have a Governor kept shy of that 50 percent. 

Dissatisfaction with her is naturally strong among Republicans but it has been independents and some Hispanic Dems who have also been straying from her and that gives pause that her re-elect is a slam dunk. 

And the centrist Governor still has to energize her often disappointed progressive base. 

However, having observed or covered every governor election here since 1974, we do not see (or feel) the palpable disgust that was a prelude to the defeat of Dem Governor Bruce King in 1994 by Republican Gary Johnson or that of Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson whose unpopularity in large measure caused the defeat of Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish in 2010 by Republican Susana Martinez. 

HELTER SKELTER

The bad taste left by the Covid hangover may be MLG's major problem but there is also annoyance with the Governor prompted by her shoot from the hip veto of an appropriations bill supported by all members of the Legislature; her ad hoc way of introducing issues such as hydrogen energy; her ongoing personnel difficulties and her penchant for micromanagement. 

There is a helter-skelter to the administration in which the door of unpredictability never closes. That leaves some voters uneasy.

Much of this is what the consultants would call a "likability "problem that can be corrected by putting the candidate on the campaign trail backslapping and backed up by aggressive advertising and showing what she has done for the local folks.  

In the larger picture the state is enjoying record surpluses, Covid is largely in the rearview mirror (despite lingering resentment), there is a record of accomplishment to take to voters, the Republican party's branding issues have never been worse and the state's blue streak is largely intact.

MLG seems to be steadying herself on the trail. Her rollout of a child care program that will cover most New Mexican families for a year has garnered national attention and answered the knock on her that despite the billions in surplus she has been unimaginative in tackling the state's long-standing social conditions crisis. 

And even though she has never been a fan of rebates for taxpayers, those approved at the recent legislative session are going to be rolled out over several months this summer, providing voters tangible proof they are sharing in the state's historic oil largesse at a time of high inflation. 

With no primary opposition and the GOP divided, there is more than enough opportunity for MLG to claw back the two points to reach 50 percent approval and then some. Avoiding unforced errors has to be her campaign's chief concern. 

MLG is gearing up her campaign as the calendar turns to May, six months before the election. She has debuted a new website with a section called The Michelle Map. Click on a county and a graph shows how much capital outlay funds the county has received during her administration. In politics there's "follow the money" and "show me the money."

In GOP Guv primary action Rebecca Dow has answered that new campaign ad from rival Mark Ronchetti that says the T or C state representative voted for a bill that gave money to illegal immigrants:

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