Will the state House take on a more conservative tinge following this year's elections? The primaries that feature both a moderate and a progressive Democrat will give us some clues so let's take a look at the latest money reports in key races that could impact state policy.

In District 40 in the Rio Arriba county area the election of former one term state Rep. Joseph Sanchez over incumbent freshman progressive Dem Roger Montoya is now widely expected. But a large swath of the district is impacted by the wild fires and campaign mail can't yet be delivered in some areas. Montoya reported $23,000 in cash on hand for the final month of the race and Sanchez $56,000. Dem consultants say Sanchez has a clear edge. The general election will not be competitive in this heavy Dem district so the primary winner goes to Santa Fe. 

In District 38 in the Soccoro area moderate Dem and Socorro Mayor Ravi Bhasker is up against progressive Tara Jaramillo. She had $33,000 in cash and Bhasker $19,000 in state money reports filed Monday. Abeyta says because Bhasker has been mayor for over 30 years he has an edge but the race is hard fought. The Dem primary winner will be favored for the November election.

Back in Rio Arriba in District 41 Dem progressive Rep. Susan Herrera is up against moderate Marlo Martinez. Herrera is running for a third term and has solid name ID. She had $39,000. Martinez is a former probate judge. He had $11,000 in cash. 

In District 42 in Taos county progressive Rep. Kristina Ortez faces moderate Florence Miera but the race has not taken off, with Ortez overwhelming Miera in the money race. Ortez reports $111,000 in cash on hand for the final month while Miera reports $13,000. 

In Santa Fe area District 46 progressive Rep. Andrea Romero has moved past moderate and Santa Fe County Commissioner Henry Roybal. She reports $69,000 in cash to Roybal's $10,000. Two other candidates did not raise significant money. Romero is seeking a third term. 

In ABQ westside District 26 moderate Cherise Quezada is competing against progressive and former state Rep. Eleanor Chavez for the westside seat that will be vacated at the end of the year by Rep. Georgene Louis. Chavez had $31,000 in cash and Quezada $27,000. The race appears competitive. 

Quezada has been outraised overall but started the final month before the June 7th primary with more cash than Chavez--$27,000 to $19,000. The race appears close.

Also on ABQ's westside in District 17, an open seat,  former moderate City Councilor Cynthia Borrego is challenging progressive Dem Darrell Deaguero who is a union leader. She reports $19,000 in cash for the final push to Deaguero's $31,000. Borrego lost her re-election bid for the council seat. Deaguerro is making his first run for office. 

Political pros see the possibility of two of these moderate Dems prevailing and going on to win in November. If so, they could join with moderate Dem reps already there on certain policy votes. And if the Republicans pick up a couple of House seats the progressive majority could be in for numerous policy challenges. 

The best chance for GOP pick-ups are in the ABQ NE Heights where there are challengers to first term Dem Rep. Marian Matthews and Rep. Pamelya Herndon who was appointed to her seat last year to fill a vacancy.

The money reports cited here can be seen at the SOS website. 

Once again it's the season to check the mailboxes where the hits are even harsher than the TV attacks.

Here's one freshly arrived that is being mailed out to 84,000 Dem households by the Working Together NM PAC supporting Dem attorney general candidate Brian Colón over BernCo District Attorney Raul Torrez. 

Not only do the headlines on the pics scream that Torrez "failed to keep us safe" and "It's not safe to promote Raul Torrez," you get a photo of the DA clearly meant to present him as effeminate with his hand to his face and looking more than a little worried. 

A good mail piece has to connect emotionally and the picture is often the only thing voters see before they quickly dispatch the campaign mail to the circular file. 

There is another photo in this piece that may grab views. It is of the child Victoria Martens, the victim of a heinous 2016 murder which became one of the most publicized in state history. DA Torrez had to drop murder charges against the girl's mother and no one has been charged with killing Victoria, although one suspect associated with the crime has been sentenced to a long prison term.

In any event, be careful when you open the mailbox in the next month who knows what will jump out at you. (We'll labor to get a Torrez piece on his opponent up soon.)

Most analysts we spoke with question that Dow, who has spent hundreds of thousands on TV ads, is in fourth place. They speculate that the poll may have oversampled ABQ where Ronchetti is strongest and under sampled rural areas where Dow has muscle. But none is disputing that Ronchetti has a lead over his challengers. SurveyUSA did not release the county by county polling numbers that would show any ABQ oversampling, if indeed there was any. 

This is the only public primary poll so far. The ABQ Journal usually conducts one for the primary and one for the general election.  

Like Ronchetti, MLG isn't waiting for the GOP nomination to be settled before starting her general election media outreach. For her it's about showing the money and making those voters who are facing an economic crunch more comfortable. To that end her campaign comes with an ad promoting the Social Security tax cut enacted at this year's legislative session and another short ad on tax credits for lower income households.

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