The ABQ Journal poll Sunday showing Mark Ronchetti running away with the '22 GOP gubernatorial nomination proved anti-climatic, confirming the commanding lead that the former TV weatherman demonstrated in the early May SurveyUSA poll. 

However the authoritative Journal poll did remedy an apparent misread from SurveyUSA. State Rep. Rebecca Dow placed second in the Journal poll, while SurveyUSA had her in fourth, even though she is the only candidate besides Ronchetti spending heavily on statewide TV ads.

The poll was conducted May 15-19 among 560 likely GOP voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent.

SurveyUSA had Ronchetti at 44 percent and Dow at 9 percent. Dow nearly doubled her support in the Journal survey.

SurveyUSA methodology gets the big picture right but the Journal had Dow with a healthy lead in the Las Cruces/SW section of the state in her home territory. That was the major difference.

The Journal uses in-person interviews with tightly screened voters and over 80 percent of responses are from cell phone users. No robo calls. No Internet panels. It's not cheap but that's what it takes to get the most accurate and useful results. 

The relatively high undecided of 21 percent in the Journal poll bothered some Republicans who read it as a lack of enthusiasm for either Ronchetti or Dow, signaling that the primary winner may have work to do to bring them home in November. 

Ronchetti has had only one scare in the primary. That's when Dow came with her winning TV ad on border security, but that was her peak. 

Next she came with an ad questioning Ronchetti's loyalty to Trump. His campaign then pummeled Dow in a relentless wave of negative ads, including one about her voting for a state budget bill that allowed undocumented immigrants to collect Covid relief money. 

GOP analysts said that hit appeared to be the most damaging, proving yet again that when done right negative campaigning is a powerful tool.

Then there's the critical money difference. Ronchetti has raised $2.5 million and had $1.495 million in cash on hand as of May 2. Dow reported $495,000 in cash and raising $1.3 million. 

As her campaign stalled under the rain of negative attacks Dow was left airing just a single ad for several weeks. That spelled the end long before the official election day of June 7.

Dow has now gone positive with this latest ad that labels her the "proven conservative" in the race. 

As for the general election outlook, the first job for the GOP is to get the race fully in play. As of May 18 the consensus forecast of the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball rank the race "likely Democratic" and Real Clear Politics does not list NM among their "Top 2022" Governor Races.

Because the station policy does not allow anyone unvaccinated into the building, the debate was pre-recorded and conducted via Zoom, always an annoying prospect but especially so in this case. 

Candidates Zanetti and Block were plagued with significant technical issues, demonstrating that the station should have moved the one and only debate to a remote location and held it live. That would have solved the Zoom problem and also promoted a more vigorous exchange among the candidates. 

As it was a few sparks flew but none of any major consequence, leaving Ronchetti accomplishing his goal of leaving unharmed.

All the candidates, however, acquitted themselves when it came to understanding the key issues they were asked about including the state's wildfires, border security and crime. 

Pity Jay Block. He tried to score points when he asked Ronchetti why he had hired controversial political consultant Jay McCleskey who last year settled a defamation lawsuit brought by a GOP state House candidate whom he had attacked. McCleskey also was the subject of a federal grand jury investigation regarding campaign finances when he worked for  Gov. Susana Martinez. That probe ended with no charges. 

But Block's maneuver backfired badly when Ronchetti shot back that Block had tried to hire McCleskey for his own Guv campaign. There was much guffawing over that. 

Dow, Zanetti and Block continued to cast doubt on the legitimacy of Biden's election but Ronchetti did not, positioning himself in the center for his now expected face-off with MLG.

The Republican leaning editorial pages of the ABQ Journal have endorsed Ronchetti as have the liberal leaning editorial pages of the Santa Fe New Mexican. In the race for the Dem nomination for attorney general the Journal went with Raul Torrez and the New Mexican endorsed Brian Colón. 

But the raging wildfires burning so many homes and ruining so many lives and requiring gubernatorial attention made the spectacle of a joyous MLG wedding a touchy political situation and the event did appear touch and go for a while.

Last Tuesday we blogged that a reliable source was told directly by MLG that the wedding would be postponed because of the fires that have received worldwide attention. The newspapers asked the Fourth Floor about that report but were deflected and were told there would be no comment until Friday. Odd for sure. Then it was announced that MLG would be traveling to Washington to meet with top federal officials about the fires. That gave her the PR cover she sought to quietly get married the following day. 

But Saturday and Sunday came with still no official release about the wedding, no photos of VP Kamala Harris officiating and no pics of a smiling and freshly hitched couple. But a spokesman did confirm to us that "the wedding occurred as planned." In fact, the only pictures of the governor that surfaced were of her visit Sunday to fire stricken areas in the north. 

With the blacked out wedding taking place, it turns out our initial report was incorrect or perhaps temporarily correct. It just goes to show that affairs of the heart are often unpredictable and subject to change without notice. In any event, congrats to the newlyweds. We'll keep it as quiet as possible. 

It’s peak season for La Politica and we’ll run down all the action today at 5 PM on KKOB with radio veteran TJ Trout. As usual, this will be a no spin zone.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.