Rebecca Dow continues to surprise in the race for the 2022 GOP Guv nomination, coming with the first attack ad of the campaign aimed at rival Mark Ronchetti in which she makes his chief strength —his TV stardom—his main weakness. 

It's the third time this month that the feisty state representative from T or C has upset the conventional wisdom that the contest is in the bag for the longtime TV weatherman with high name ID and a fat campaign kitty. 

The first was her ad riding on horseback with border county sheriffs along the Trump Wall. That demonstrated she had come to play. 

The second was her unexpected ad pivot to critical race theory that is a touchy issue in much of New Mexico but not with likely Republican primary voters. Now this attack ad called "Pretender" that indicts Ronchetti's conservative credentials. 

Ronchetti's claim to fame is his lengthy stint on the state's TV screens via KRQE that vaulted him to the 2020 GOP US Senate nomination. Dow works to deconstruct that popular image in her new spot, accusing him of being both a "climate change activist" and a "Never Trumper" but not without stretching the truth to get there. 

Still, the spot gets the job done, says Dem consultant David Alcon, whose father is a state rep from the Grants area: 

Both of the charges in the attack ad against Ronchetti were heard in that '20 Senate campaign but never packaged with the power and force that they are now being presented. That includes video of Ronchetti dissing Trump, saying:

And there is a memorable segment not seen before in a political context where Ronchetti is shown in his TV weatherman role presenting an animated photo of himself with orange hair and mocking the ex-president. That is a striking reversal of his TV image for most GOP voters. 

Here's the transcript:

The Ronchetti campaign snapped back with this on the climate activist charge:

And on Ronchetti quitting the GOP, they retorted:

The campaign also promised to soon expose Dow's "liberal voting record," her "ethics scandals" and "legal troubles."

Greg Payne

Still, left on the table is the potent "Never Trump" charge which has haunted Ronchetti since he entered politics. The bedrock principle of his campaign is to steer clear of the controversial former president and position himself for the general election. 

Veteran campaign consultant Greg Payne, 55, weighs in: 

A funny thing is happening on the way to November. There is a real primary election. And after Dow's stellar April she and Ronchetti are starting to look like even money bets.

Dow has found her media footing and also her financial footing. National media firm AdImpact reported on Twitter: 

That's close enough for Dow to effectively compete and her supporters believe Republican juices are now starting to flow and the attack ad will bring in big donors to further flatten Ronchetti's money advantage. 

A consultant with ties to MLG did not give a direct answer Tuesday when asked who would be the stronger foe for the Governor come November. 

Much depends on whether Dow could effectively pivot from a conservative primary run to a more moderate platform for the general election. MLG may feel they have that solved with Dow and that Ronchetti still remains the larger threat. But they could fear Dow is a wild card in a wild, chaotic political environment. Nothing is certain in the fog of political war and that's what we have. 

One of the media mavens reports that a pre-recorded TV debate for the five GOP Guv hopefuls will be broadcast Thursday, May 19th by KOAT-TV. No other debates have been announced. 

Unfortunately, our informed source told us the KOAT-Journal sponsored face-off will not be face to face because they can't confirm all the candidates have had Covid vaccinations so the debate will be conducted via Zoom. 

That sucks a lot of life out of the affair and seems silly as it comes even as pandemic restrictions have been lifted in the state. KOAT has a big studio. Can't they just do social distancing and give us the debate we deserve? After all, this may be the only one we get. 

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