Tuesday, April 05, 2022

'22 Guv: Battle For Trump Vote Emerges In GOP; Block And Dow Scurry For His Backers, Plus: Rebates Upped to $500 And $1000 As Special Session Convenes Today

Dems will cringe but there's an increasingly interesting race for the '22 GOP Guv nomination developing as two leading contenders openly vie for the large swath of the party that still admires former President Trump. If one of them dominates that battle, they could end up being the nominee. 

That's because this is a five way race and while Mark Ronchetti has locked down what is left of the establishment wing of the Grand Old Party, Rebecca Dow and Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block are now dueling for the much larger swath of Trump voters. 

Dow started it off with her first TV ad in which she supported "finishing President Trump's wall." Now Blocks comes with his first volley on the airwaves, calling himself "a day one supporter of President Donald J. Trump."

Dow has more financial muscle than Block and thus the advantage in rounding up the Trump vote. While Ronchetti hopes the pair splits things up and he marches up the middle, he is not leaving it to chance. He is hitting the border issue hard, advocating for National Guard troops to be stationed there. However, he does not mention Trump in his ads. 

The problem for Block is he is seen as far behind Dow in fund-raising. In releasing his ad he did not say where it was being aired, unlike Dow who made a point of saying her effort was on more expensive broadcast as well as cable. 

There are five GOP candidates. The winning margin June 7 could be below 40 percent, making that play for the Trump wing all the more attractive. Of course, in the November election the Dems will try to hang Trump on whoever the Republicans nominate. 

But first things first. This is a fight for the nomination--not the general. To paraphrase former President Nixon, in the primary you run to the right and after that you pivot towards the center. 

Still to be heard from in the early GOP TV wars are candidates Greg Zanetti and anti-abortion activist Ethel Maharg.

New campaign money reports will come next week. GOP analysts believe Dow is likely to be competitive with Ronchetti who is expected to lead the pack. Block and Zanetti have been struggling and will need strong numbers to encourage donors.  

GUNS A BLAZIN'?

As we said, the GOP Guv race is getting more interesting, a view shared by reader and longtime observer  Jim McClure who says he is looking forward to more action:

Joe, I am looking forward to a gubernatorial campaign that’s as entertaining as the 2020 race in the southern congressional district. CG2. Remember that Democrat Xochitl Torres-Small attempted to look like a moderate by shooting a gun in a campaign commercial. Republican Yvette Herrell countered with her own gunslinging commercial because it’s kind of a requirement for Republicans. It was like a spaghetti western. So I was delighted when Rebecca Dow launched her campaign on horseback. How will her primary opponents respond? Can Mark Ronchetti learn to ride a horse or shoot a gun? Will MLG arm herself in the general election campaign? In a state that claims Billy the Kid as its leading folk hero, it’s only a matter of time until the guns come out.

Jim, in La Politica the guns are always out gf their holsters 

SOMETHING SPECIAL

Most of the drama was drained from today's special legislative session (not Wednesday's as we initially blogged Monday) when MLG put a brake on the chaos-making and came with a simple agenda that is expected see lawmakers wrap things up in a matter of hours. 

The Guv and legislative leadership say they will shoot higher for this second round of rebates--$500 for singles and $1,000 for joint filers likely to be delivered in two segments in late June and the other in mid-October, right in time for the election. Surprise! Everyone would get the rebates. No income caps.

In talking about the first round of rebates approved at the recent regular session, we said that single filers would be getting $250 and joint filers would be getting $700. The correct figure for joint filers is $500.

The full agenda for the session is here and you can catch the session here starting at 9 a.m. 

FOOTNOTE

As expected the ABQ City Council last night overrode the veto Mayor Keller cast of the bill that would once again allow those single use plastic bags at grocery stores and other locales. The veto override vote was 6 to 3, the same vote that the measure passed council by last month. Paper or plastic is back. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022