Thursday, March 31, 2022

National GOP Says Rep. Stansbury Will Be Targeted But Skeptics Raise Doubts, Plus: State GOP Fears What MLG Will Place On Special Session Agenda

A bit of an eyebrow raiser came out of DC this week with the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) announcing that they have added New Mexico's 1st congressional district to their list of targeted House seats for this year's mid-term election. 

The move even surprised some Republicans because the ABQ area district represented by Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury has an 11 point partisan lean toward the Dems and is commonly ranked safe.

However, the new district does now dip into conservative sections of SE NM and Dems are being warned that a wave election could develop where Republicans pick up dozens of House seats.

But even under that scenario picking off the ABQ seat that Stansbury won before redistricting at a June '21 special election 60 to 36 would be a monumental feat. 

As much of a long shot a GOP play would be, by blowing some smoke early the Republicans will make Stansbury step up her fund-raising and remain mindful that a congressional rep is often most vulnerable when facing voters for only the second time. 

Of course, it is early and listing the ABQ seat as a target could be the NRCC simply testing the waters and later in the year back off when it comes to time to put up the millions of dollars required to make the race competitive. 

One reason the committee could be attracted to the seat is that the Republican candidate will be Hispanic--either Michelle Garcia Holmes or Louie Sanchez—with the winner decided at the June 7 primary. The GOP has been doing better with Hispanics of late. 

The NRCC says 72 House Democrats are now on their targeted list. 

DIALING IN

US Rep. Yvette Herrell isn't shy about facing the voters as she prepares for another bruising battle for her southern congressional seat. The Republican lawmaker will host a tele-townhall at 6 p.m. today that is open to anyone who calls in at 877-229-8493 PIN: 120681.

Herrell says she will field questions and "discuss new ways to serve the people of New Mexico."

Her Dem opponent is likely to be former Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez who is favored to take the nomination at the June 7 primary. 

After the field is set the frenzy begins with another colossal high dollar race unfolding. This one will definitely be targeted by both major parties ad with good reason--the seat is listed as a true toss-up by the Cook Political Report and other DC pundits. 

NEITHER WILL DO

The GOP Guv campaign made headlines this week with Rebecca Dow launching her first TV ad and sparring with opponent Mark Ronchetti. That activity caught the eye of reader Loni Griego who writes:

New Mexico does not need a TV weatherman with little or no government acumen as governor. We also don't need a fire & brimstone Trumper. There are too many of those already. All in for Michelle Lujan Grisham, she's done a very good job.

SPECIAL WATCH

MLG is calling the legislature into special session April 5 to address high inflation and have lawmakers draft a new pork bill to replace the one she vetoed and that upset so many reps. Those are the only items the Governor's office has said will be on the agenda. But the NM GOP remains suspicious:

It’s unclear if this deceitful Governor (who breaks her own COVID rules and who also pays off a former staffer over sex harassment claims) will sneak in election legislation she badly wanted. Republicans just defeated a voting package that would have opened the door to fraud, created more ballot problems and led to more integrity issues at the polls. The Governor would love to revive and modify these voting bills months before Election Day this November to give her a political edge.

The voting reform package that did not win legislative approval at the regular session is a hot button issue for the R's and if introduced would cause an election year brawl. That's not an outcome many Dems would welcome. 

MLG will soon issue the proclamation for the special session and the specific items she is asking to be addressed. 

FLYING DILDOS REVISITED 

The man who caused a stir last year when he flew a drone with a sex toy attached over the head of BernCo Sheriff Manny Gonzales while he was giving a speech for his ABQ mayoral bid is now running for sheriff. 

Gonzales is term limited and there are 12 candidates running to replace him including one Libertarian--flying dildo operator Kaelan Ashby Dreyer who also punched the sheriff during the incident and was charged with battery. The charge was dismissed when the officer did not show up in court. 

Now Dreyer is on the campaign trail but he better watch the skies above him when giving any speeches. Manny may be in the wings ready to take his revenge.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. 

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2022