Dow

The first significant event of the 2022 gubernatorial election comes down this Saturday in Ruidoso when nearly 800 Republicans will gather for their preprimary convention that will give a boost to the first place finisher and punishing blows to those who come up too short. 

For T or C state Rep. Rebecca Dow a strong performance is essential, strong meaning a first place finish when delegates vote to place the Guv candidates on the June 7 primary ballot. 

She has a shot. Even though former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti is seen as the early June primary frontrunner outside of the convention, on the inside the grassroots delegates are not his for the asking. 

For example, many of those delegates are fervent pro-life supporters. In 2020 when Ronchetti ran for the US Senate, the GOP preprimary delegates awarded anti-abortion activist Elisa Martinez 35 percent of the vote with Ronchetti getting 29 percent. This year anti-abortion candidate Ethel Mahrag is running for Governor.

Then there's Ronchetti's Trump problem. The former president's supporters see Ronchetti as lukewarm on their man. 

If a large swath of party insiders are still wary about Ronchetti it will open the door for Dow. A first place finish would boost her fund-raising and give her a chance to recast the narrative of the nomination race that currently says it's his to lose

Ronchetti

To win an official spot on the ballot a candidate must get 20 percent of the delegates. A candidate can still get on the ballot if they don't reach that mark by gathering extra petition signatures but it is exceedingly rare for a contender to win a primary election without achieving that critical 20 percent support. 

In the lead up to the Saturday meeting Dow was on the hustings talking up some GOP wins at the recent session of the legislature, including the surprise defeat of the Clean Fuel Standards Act that enviros badly wanted. (A recent Dow speech is here and a GOP candidate forum here.)

For his part, Ronchetti released a TV ad to fire up the delegates that showed him pledging to place the NM National Guard at the border in an effort to thwart the fentanyl epidemic that he says is claiming one New Mexico life a day. 

Ronchetti has avoided four joint appearances with his fellow Guv hopefuls, giving the Dems a chance to blast him as "Running Ronchetti."

Financial advisor Greg Zanetti has been traveling--and hoping. He seems destined for a third place convention finish but if he could surprise he might displace Dow as the anti-Ronchetti candidate.

Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block is the other Guv hopeful but has not caught fire. 

The convention comes after a mixed bag legislative session for Gov. Lujan Grisham, but the Dem executive did lift the mask mandate at the conclusion of the session and that is seen as giving her a bump. 

No incumbent Governor has been defeated for a second term since 1994. Whoever ends up as the GOP nominee will need to run an aggressive campaign and one free of major errors.

Republicans Saturday will also vote to place candidates for the statewide offices on the ballot, including lieutenant governor and the three congressional districts. 

ROUNDHOUSE BAR HOURS

It probably was a revelation to most of the state when they learned that ABQ Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto shared a full bottle of wine with a lobbyist in his Roundhouse office while the legislature was in session. Most workplaces ban the consumption of booze during work hours, but not at the capitol. 

The practice has drawn little public notice but in these times of different attitudes that could change. Retired APD Sergeant Dan Klein comes with this on the Roundhouse day drinking:

I think it’s pretty clear that New Mexico has a drinking problem and it starts at the Roundhouse. How many other legislators are drunk, or drinking alcohol, when they are sitting in committee, debating on the floor, hanging out in their office or voting on issues that effect New Mexicans? If you or I were drinking or drunk at work we would get fired, but at the Roundhouse the same rules apparently don’t apply. 

Meanwhile the rumor mill has been churning with reports that the Santa Fe Super Bowl Party attended by state Rep. Georgene Louis, who was arrested after the party for aggravated DWI, was hosted by a legislator and a lobbyist. Klein takes on that one:

These whispers pointed to a party where several members of the Legislature may have been in attendance and asked why no one at this party intervened to stop Georgene from driving away drunk. Sadly, none of these whisperers wished to stand up and ask the question publicly. I reached out by email to several legislators, and while they acknowledged receiving my questions, not one of them responded. They always talk about a “blue wall of silence” for police officers, well it appears there is also a wall of silence when it comes to the Legislature. 

If Georgene was drinking with other legislators it matters because our Legislature has enacted laws that can make the host of a party liable for the actions of someone who leaves and is drunk. If Georgene was drinking with other legislators present, didn’t they have a duty to stop her from getting behind the wheel? The Legislature has enacted laws that can have serious consequences for servers in bars and restaurants who knowingly serve intoxicated people. This is one of those moments where the laws they enact on all of us, certainly should apply to all of them. The Roundhouse is a gun free zone, it should also be a drug and alcohol free zone, is that too much to ask? 

Good stuff, Dan, it just might get an important conversation going around the state.

CANDIDATE FOR LOUIS SEAT

Eleanor Chavez

Meanwhile, the political consequences of her arrest are hitting home for Rep. Louis. Dem activist and blog reader Michelle Meaders reports if Louis seeks re-election she will face a heavyweight Democrat primary foe: 

Eleanor Chavez told me she is running for NM House District 26. That's the one Georgene Louis represents. She was the state rep for NM House District 13 for two terms, before Rep. Patricia Roybal Caballero. She'd be great! She only needs 52 valid signatures from Democrats by March 8 to get on the primary ballot.

The Chavez candidacy will likely end any hope that Louis had of staying in the legislative seat she has held for ten years and avoids having the Louis arrest become a landmine in waiting for state Dems. 

NO DELTA 

Former MLG consultant James Hallinan blasted the Dem House candidacy of Reena Szcepanski this week, implying that the chief of staff to House Speaker Brian Egolf still works for the healthcare firm Delta Consulting that was run by MLG and Rep. Debbie Armstrong and stirred controversy in the 2018 Guv race. Reader Jennifer Ford comes with this retort:

Reena Szczepanski does not work for Delta Consulting and has not for years. I wonder why James Hallinan is trying to create fake news around Reena. Clearly James has an issue with women in leadership, and I would not be surprised if he is running the campaign for someone else vying for House District 47, or if he is working for the Republican Legislative Caucus. This does not pass the smell test. 

Hallinan says he is not working for any candidate in the Santa Fe contest and is not working for the GOP.

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