First, MLG.  She's coming under fresh fire for the "Grocerygate" and "Jewelrygate" episodes as the Republican Governors Association (RGA) releases a one minute digital ad ripping into her over the controversies. The ad is being streamed on social media. The RGA did not disclose how much it is spending, but did confirm it is under $100,000. 

The ad, titled the "Lujan Grisham Way," is an easy lay-up. It relies on news reports of her pandemic jewelry shopping and her sometimes expensive taxpayer supported grocery habit to make the point that . . . 

The RGA is a a well-funded organization and isn't prone to taking shots in the dark. Consultants interviewed here said last week that MLG could find herself under paid media fire for her pandemic behavior; they just didn't expect it so soon. 

Are her polling numbers slipping and the RGA is siezing the moment or is the ad meant to push them down?  Either way this governorship has entered a period of early scrutiny for the 2022 campaign. 

The last ABQ Journal poll of MLG was conducted in late August of 2020 and she had a 59 percent approval rating. However, that was bolstered by high approval (74%) for her handling of the pandemic. The question is whether that support has softened. A Dem consultant claims a late December survey showed MLG with no weakening from last year's polling but did not release the survey.

While the RGA can and has pumped millions into past New Mexico governor races, they are still wandering in the wilderness when  looking for a first tier candidate to take on MLG. And every Governor since 1998 has been easily re-elected.

But if MLG's numbers did go low and stay low a competent opponent would arise. We broached the possibility last year of a candidacy by retired NM GOP Supreme Court Justice Judy Nakamura, seen by R's as perhaps their strongest possibility, and dubbed a run a long shot. But don't be surprised if Nakamura sniffs around the next few months to see if there is a path developing. She has something none of the possible R's have--strength in Bernalillo County--the foundation of the Governor's support. 

After being rejected by the Biden administration for a cabinet position, MLG said she would be seeking re-election. However, a remaining question is if a good DC job offer came her way, would she take it?

Meanwhile, House Speaker Brian Egolf, the state's second most powerful Dem, is also wading in muddy waters. His sponsorship of a bill that would eliminate "qualified immunity" for a variety of government officials and pave the way for more lawsuits against them by trial lawyers such as himself, is being used to paint him with the brush of corruption and surfacing accusations that he is tone deaf. 

The temperature got raised this week when NM Association of Counties President Steve Boyle took it too far and mouthed off in an email that "if I had a list he would be on it." Egolf called for Boyle to retract the "dangerous words."

But the political danger Egolf faces was not Boyle's doing. All Egolf had to do was recuse himself from taking part in the legislation and problem solved. Instead he waded in deeper and is now facing a determined opposition that could kill the bill in the Senate. Also, his law firm's client list is been hung out on the public clothes line to see if there's any dirty laundry.

Then there's the Speaker's second round of comments about the upcoming redistricting of the legislative and congressional seats. He got feisty with a progressive group that supports the naming of an independent commission to do the redistricting and strip the legislature of that duty. Naturally Egolf doesn't like that. But in this case all he had to do was put a sock in it and let the commission proposal quietly die which it will.

It was the second time the loquacious lawmaker did the redistricting dance and stumbled. After the November election he essentially threatened GOP US Rep Yvette Herrell with new district boundaries that would end her congressional career at one term. That's an idea not without widespread sympathy but Egolf's statement (that he later backpedaled) gave the R's hope that they can keep Herrell off the crowded unemployment lines.

Dems have it all--big legislative majorities and office holders everywhere. That's usually when the overreach starts and jars open the door for the R's. Hey, didn't former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez use similar words when we met up with him after the big Dem wins in 2018? Well, yes he did. Maybe he can have a zoom call with Judy about that?

This is the home of New Mexico politics.