Joe Monahan

Welcome back and Happy New Year. 

This is not a general election year but it won't be a sleeper. Already we have a special congressional election on tap--probably for June--to replace Rep. Deb Haaland if, as expected, she is confirmed by the US Senate as the new Secretary of Interior.

Then there's the possibility of a special statewide election sometime this year if the legislature approves a constitutional amendment allowing a portion of the the state's $20 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund to be tapped for early childhood education, 

Then there are mayoral elections in November in ABQ and Santa Fe, a new schedule prompted by a 2019 election reform law.

While it isn't an election it is a major political event that comes along only once a decade--the redistricting of all 112 legislative seats and three US House seats. Those new boundaries will be decided by the legislature later this year and impact state politics for at least a decade if not more. 

That's plenty for the plates of the political junkies who are not sit back and relax types. 

It's nearly a sure bet that the Dems will keep the Haaland ABQ seat in their column in that special election. That's why the battle for the Dem nomination will be intense. About 200 party insiders--members of the State Central Committee--will get to make that choice, unless the legislature does a quick rewrite of election law. There are already three announced Dem hopefuls while only one R has announced. 

If there is a statewide election on devoting Permanent Fund money to early childhood education the easy bet is for passage. Polling shows the public heavily in favor and any opposition that comes with major ad dollars is unlikely.

In the mayoral contests, Santa Fe Mayor Allan Webber will have the inside track for re-election, as long as his progressive base holds. Ditto for ABQ Dem Mayor Tim Keller. Crime remains Keller's Achilles Heel but he's surprising the skeptics and announcing that he hopes to have a new police chief on board in the first quarter of the new year. He's buffing up his crime fighting credentials in the face of a possible challenge from conservative Dem Sheriff Manny Gonzales. 

As for redistricting, look for the southern congressional seat to be redrawn to favor the Dems, meaning Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell--elected in 2020--will likely be a one termer. 

With control of the House, Senate and Governor's office the D's may tone down partisanship as they ease Herrell out, but a quiet ouster has the same effect as a loud one. 

Redistricting is also expected to strengthen the hands of three freshman state senate Dems who took GOP seats in BernCo in 2020. The D's will safeguard Senators Pope, Duhigg and Hickey and ensure they are not one term wonders. 

Rep. Herrell isn't doing herself any favors as she contemplates redistricting. In a little noticed December Fox News interview she went off the rails and argued that her 2018 defeat by Dem Xochitl Torres Small was without question the result of fraud, a baseless charge that has been completely debunked.

Now she is embracing similar baseless charges raised by Trump and will join with other House Republicans and vote against counting the electoral college votes for President this Wednesday.

As the only elected Republican of statewide stature, Herrell is the de facto leader of the NMGOP but she and GOP Chairman Steve Pearce are tightening their embrace of Trump, even as his presidency decays and offers an opportunity for them to pivot and ease the party onto more broad-based footing. 

Trump in exile will remain powerful in the GOP, able to stage rallies to promote his favorite candidates and raise major money to support them. Herrell and Pearce are caught in a trap and can't get out or don't have the political will to do so. Or to them it's no trap but a comforting home.

These circumstances mean in the immediate years ahead New Mexico could become even more of a one party state. In essence the moderate wing of the Dems would be the substitute for Republicanism on economic issues.

Republicanism, currently defined as Trumpism, is a losing formula in New Mexico, except for a swath in the SE. That is fact based on actual election results. 

A faint sign of hope exists with Generation Z Republicans (aged 18-34) trying to steer the party to address issues such as racial justice and gay rights with more tolerance and expand its appeal.  

Meanwhile, the shadow of Trump is the shadow of a dead man walking. In that shadow walk Yvette Herrell and Steve Pearce. 

Ben Ray Lujan Sworn in as US Senator Sunday

Finally, some pearls of wisdom for the new year from Santa Fe Mayor Alan Webber who writes to his city: