An explosion in early voting will propel turnout for the 2020 election to previously unimagined heights with over 70 percent of the state's 1.350 million voters expected to cast ballots. A record turnout is a near certainty easily eclipsing the 2008 record of 833,000. 

The US Elections Project, relying on data from the SOS, reports 782,047 early votes were cast. And there are still 71,500 absentee ballots in the hands of voters with today the last day to get them in. 

The great majority of those absentees are expected to be counted. Combine that with today's Election Day voting and turnout should easily surf past 900,000 with the possibility of 950,000 and beyond still on the table. In terms of percentage of registered voters casting a ballot, we may reach the record from 2008 election when 70.4 percent of registered cast ballots. To do that we would have to get to 951,674.

48.6 percent of the early vote came from Dems who have 45.2% of the state's registered voters. Republicans made up 34.9 percent. Their state registration is 31.3%. Independents cast 15.4% of the early vote. They make up 21.5% of state registration. 467,675 people voted early in-person and 385,884 requested absentee ballots. Republicans and independents are expected to favor Election Day voting today more than the Dems. 

The lesson? If voting is made easy, voters vote, especially in a controversial presidential election. Because of the pandemic absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters and they responded in droves. As we've blogged, this election is bound to redefine how New Mexico votes in the future with mail and early voting an even larger part of the equation. Voters simply want the convenience and their elected representatives will respond. 

The large turnout is benefitting Democrats, according to the polls. President Trump lags far behind Joe Biden and if Democrats pad their majorities in the state Senate and House they can largely thank the historic turnout.

If a rebound is going to happen we can first look to the far ABQ NE Heights seat of appointed Dem State Rep. Marian Matthews who faces R Bob Godshall. The district is affluent and Republican. The Dems took it in the '18 blue wave with Bill Pratt as their nominee. He passed away and attorney Matthews was appointed to fill the seat.  Both sides see this as the R's #1 pick-up opportunity.

R's are trying to knock off another freshman blue wave victor---ABQ area Dem Rep. Karen Bash--who took the NW seat from R Rep. Moncia Youngblood whose drunk driving arrest sunk her. But with Biden poised for a metro landslide, Dems are confident this seat will be a hold for them, even though the district can correctly be called lean R. 

Outside of the ABQ area R's are spinning hopes for a pick-up of the Las Cruces area seat of Dem Rep. Willie Madrid. Former Republican Rep. Rick Little carries those hopes. This is the third election in a row this duo have faced each other. They each have won it once. This is the tiebreaker. 

That's just a taste of the top House races and we'll cover them all tonight. Dem insiders say a good night for them would be to hold all their incumbents and pick up a seat or two. A good night for the R's would be similar--a pick up of at least two. But with the Dem majority already so lopsided, it will be any internecine warfare between Dems that observers will be watching for at the next legislation session, rather than clashes between D's and the badly outnumbered R's.

It's always a good idea to keep an eye on Valencia County on a presidential Election Night. The Politico is among those watching:

It's a cast of thousands. Well, not quite but we will will have a crowd of experts on hand at KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM for in-depth election coverage tonight, our 32nd year of broadcasting New Mexico elections on public radio. 

Dem State Reps. Moe Maestas and Tara Lujan will maintain the legislative desk along with Marianna Anaya, president of Emerge NM. GOP consultants Bob Cornelius and Doug Antoon will cover all things Trump and also eagle eye that hot southern congress race. Dem consultant and political lifer Sisto Abeyta will dig deep for trends in all the major races. He'll team with fellow vet Steve Cabiedes. And we'll coax some pearls of wisdom from two other experts of La Politica--ABQ attorney David Buchholtz and Santa Fe attorney Cliff Rees. Then there's our army of Alligators who will blow up our phone if we should stray from our mission.  Should be fun. See you tonight. 

This is the home of New Mexico politics.