Progressive Democrats got their job half done when they ousted prominent conservative leaning Dem senators in the June primary, but now the state waits to if those primary winners prevail and if their numbers will be boosted more by the defeat of GOP senators struggling for their political lives as a sea of blue floods over big Bernalillo County.

There is uncertainty over how far the Senate will veer from the center-right when it gets back to work in January. What's at stake Tuesday is fundamental policy regarding education funding, marijuana, abortion, energy regulation and more. Will the progressives unlock more Election Night treasure or see their growth spurt slowed?

Heading into the final hours, La Politica is hovering over the ABQ westside district of GOP Senator Sander Rue--like vultures waiting for the inevitable. Rue has been on the ropes since the start and the death watch only intensified with each passing day. The often moderate and well-liked Rue could survive but Dem Harold Pope Jr. Seems poised to take the seat and become the state's first Black state Senator. How "progressive" would he be? The business lobbyists will go to work on him in record time. 

Two other GOP seats at risk in BernCo--Candace Gould in the North Valley and Rio Rancho and the NE Heights seat being vacated by Republican Sen Bill Payne--are also teetering in the face of what is expected to be a landslide for Biden in the ABQ metro. In the final ABQ Journal poll Biden was pounding Trump 62-34 here and beating him 54-39 statewide.

The Corrales area seat of conservative leaning Dem Sen. John Sapien, who retired, is now expected to be placed in more liberal Dem hands, those of Brenda McKenna--although that district has a history of very close races. The Grants area seat of Senator Clemente Sanchez, who was ousted in the Dem primary, is expected to go to Pam Cordova over R Josh Sanchez.  

Not much has been heard about the Valencia County "Battle of the Bacas." But Dems are putting Paul Baca on their radar in the final hours, hoping for a possible upset of freshman GOP Senator Greg Baca. They anticipate Valencia going blue in the presidential contest and it could pull Paul into the winner's circle, along with him outspending Greg.

Senator John Arthur Smith, perhaps still smarting from his June primary defeat by giant killer Neomi Martinez Parra, has gone public and predicted that the Republican will take his seat and that Neomi will lose to GOP bright light Crystal Diamond. Dems admit this one could go either way. But the progressives have already won--Smith is not going back to the Roundhouse and is headed to the rocking chair circuit. The huge conservative power he accumulated will go with him--with or without Diamond.

Our Senate watchers will be out in force on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com starting at 6:30 Election Night. Rarely is there no surprises in the legislative contests. We'll check in on the late state House action tomorrow.

The southern congressional race is so tight that when you look at it your fingernails sweat. The final Journal poll had it 48% to 46%, with Republican Yvette Herrell holding the tiny lead in a survey with an anything can happen margin of error of nearly 5 per cent. We've been here before. In their 2018 match-up Herrell led by one point in the final Journal poll but Xochitl Torres Small eeked out a win of 3,722 votes. 

Can it get any closer? Well, yes. 

The 538 forecasting site gives Torres small a very small edge of winning, putting her chances at 56 out of 100. The forecast popular vote is a deja vu of '18---50.6 to 49.4. Turnout is expected to come in around 225,000 to 250,000 If that popular vote forecast were to become reality Torres Small would defeat Herrell by the slim margin of 2,700. 

The southern Congress race is now the most expensive of any in New Mexico history, topping an astounding $30 million when all outside money is tallied along with the cash the candidates have raised. It's so overwhelming that neither candidate has a financial advantage. So many people have already cast early ballots that the late TV ads to reach the few potential voters left are monumentally expensive. 

President Trump is running strong in the south, unlike his lagging performance in the ABQ and northern congressional districts and that is supremely important for Herrell. He was only 4 points ahead in the early September Journal. But pollster Brian Sanderoff predicts that Trump's margin of victory there will now exceed the ten points he won it by in 2016. Statewide Biden was beating Trump 54-42 in the Journal poll.

Also, while Republicans had held their fire in early voting and are expected to show up with more force on Election Day in ABQ and the north,  in the south the R's rushed to the polls early, outperforming the Dems by about 8,000 votes as of Friday night. Torres Small has to step on the gas tomorrow and get more Dems and Independents to the polls, especially in vote-laden Dona Ana County. 

It's all about enthusiasm and energy and the southern R's (particularly the SE R's) have had it and put on an impressive show. Now the stage is set for a finish of high drama. It's like watching the roulette ball swirl around the wheel as your heart pounds in anticipation. . . Enough already. Our fingernails are sweating again. 

Ben Ray Lujan appears to have sealed the deal over Mark Ronchetti with the final Journal poll giving the northern congressman an eight point lead of 52-44. Libertarian Bob Walsh was pulling 3 percent. That's solid for Lujan but not a few Dems are expressing disappointment that the 10 year House veteran is not beating the former TV meteorologist by double digits. Lujan was not exceptionally well-known statewide at the start of the campaign and Ronchetti kept his foot on his neck with constant negative ads. But it appears Lujan will have six years to figure it all out--the length of a term in the United States Senate. 

The ABQ and northern congressional contests are, as expected, set to be blow-outs for the Dems. 

ABQ Dem state Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, 78, has this cautionary note for those planning to vote tomorrow, especially those like him who are in the high risk group for coronavirus consequences: