Two weeks to go and already more than 268,000 early votes have been cast in New Mexico. Peg the final turnout at a record high 850,000 and this election is already over for 32 percent of the electorate. Last minute attacks or surprises can still deliver a jolt but to alter the course of a race they have to be major.

Checking in with consultants, Alligators and insiders the trajectory of the election seems unchanged here. Biden is expected to post a statewide victory in the area of 55 to 58 percent. The cornerstones of the win will not be unusual. Bernalillo and Santa Fe counties alone are expected to to give him a cushion of around 85,000 votes. 

With Biden set to landslide those two blue counties some of our Gators are willing to start predicting. One with long years of experience says that he now puts the odds "at over 50 percent" that three Republican state Senate seats held in big Bernalillo County will be washed away in the blue tsunami. Those seats belong to Senators Rue, Gould and Senator Payne who is not seeing re-election. "You're going to have to see a lot of ticket splitting to save them and I don't think you will see it," he offered.

The tightest race in the Senate derby is seen as the contest between Republican Crystal Diamond and Democrat Neomi Martinez Parra in SW NM. That race to replace Dem Sen. John Arthur Smith, who Parrra beat in the June primary, has turned in to the most expensive Senate battle this cycle. The race is being labeled a toss up. 

The Senate race between the two Bacas in Valencia County is seen favoring the incumbent GOP Senator Greg Baca. Some Dems worry about 80 year old Sen. Bill Tallman in the ABQ NE Heights but not enough to call in the troops. 

With the election essentially nationalized, Dems think that will help them keep the Sandoval County seat being vacated by John Sapien as well as squash any threat to Pam Cordova, the Dem candidate seeking to replace conservative Clemente Sanchez who she beat in the primary.

All in all, the pros say the optimistic scenario for the Dems is a pickup of two to four state Senate seats and the pessimistic view has no gain or the loss of a seat. The D's have a current 26 to 16 majority and with new faces coming in from primary wins the body is expected to move more toward the center from the center-right. The state House is overwhelmingly Dem and not many upsets seem in the making which means the D's will continue with their majority of 46-24 or something similar in 2021. 

RONCHETTI'S CASH

Republican US Senate candidate Mark Ronchetti has done a respectable job raising money for his underdog campaign. As of September 30 his total take was $3.2 million. That compares to $8 million raised by Dem Ben Ray Lujan. But what really grabs the attention of the insiders is the amount of cash that Ronchetti had on hand September 30---$1.528 million. Is most of that money committed or will the former TV meteorologist end up with a significant cash balance at the end of the campaign? 

The question is pressing for Republicans who wonder aloud if Ronchetti is setting himself up for a run for Governor in 2022 or Mayor of ABQ in 2021. Under federal law Ronchetti could transfer any cash balances left over from his his Senate campaign to a gubernatorial account. For Mayor, he could turn any cash pile over to a political action committee. 

Half a million or more would go a long way in a GOP primary race for governor or in a mayoral run which may be the least likely of the two races for Ronchetti. But first Ronchetti must avoid a landslide at the hands of Lujan that could taint him for any future run. For potential GOP Guv candidates how much cash Ronchetti ends up with after the election will be watched as closely as the results he posts.

HOWIE WATCH

Meantime, Howie Morales, the man who would become Governor if MLG were to secure a job in DC with the Biden administration, has yet to crank up his fund-raising. In the October filing he reports just $78,000 in cash. However, an appointment to the Governor's chair could be expected to jump start his fund-raising. A potential rival for Morales for the 2022 Dem Guv nomination would be Attorney General Hector Balderas. He has $659,000 banked, plenty to kick start a campaign. Then there's Dem Senator Martin Heinrich, another name getting mentioned as a possible Morales challenger. At the September 30 federal filing he reported $481,000 in cash, also more than enough to launch an initial effort. There will be an end to these trying times and with that in mind. . . 

The City of Albuquerque has recommended a formal analysis and feasibility study, funded by capital funds from the State, for a new multi-purpose soccer stadium. “While we remain focused on dealing with the pandemic and increasing public safety, we also know that it is important to think about the future. It is important that even during tough times, we think about what our city can look like in the years to come,” said Mayor Tim Keller.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020