Thursday, October 22, 2020Political Vets Now Predicting Massive Turnout; Early Vote Soars, Plus; Herrell's Happy Talk, Final US Senate Debate And The PNM MergerThe early vote total was put at 440,000 by state officials Thursday and some observers are now calling for not just an historic turnout but a gargantuan one. UNM political science professor Lonna Atkeson says 900,000 is a possibility. Radio Talker Eddie Aragon, who predicted the unusually high primary turnout, believes 950,000 and possibly 1 million New Mexicans will vote. "I am hearing from a lot of first time voters," he says. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff says a turnout of 70 percent of the 1.329 million registered voters is on his radar. That would translate into 929,000 votes. The 2008 presidential race between Obama and McCain was the record setter with 833,365 or 61 percent of registered voters casting ballots. We'll almost certainly blow past that. HAPPY TALK The southern congressional campaign has been negative so long that viewers might do a double-take at the new ad from GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell. She smiles a lot and says she wants to be elected to "preserve our way of life" and values. Well, this is about the time when the candidates want to show their softer side and "values" is a come home call to the conservative district. And there's something new in this ad--Trump. In the primary Herrell's ads boasted proudly of Trump, but tucked him away for the general election against Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. Now in the closing days she resurfaces the president--at least somewhat. Most of the 30 second ad sports a graphic saying, "Endorsed by President Donald Trump." His name is not mentioned out loud. Obviously, the campaign feels it is safer now to put Trump out there as most of the anti-Trumpers have already voted. FINAL SENATE DEBATE Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan did his best to pin an "Endorsed By Trump" sticker on Republican Mark Ronchetti's lapel during their third and final debate for the open US Senate seat. For his part Ronchetti pointed to Lujan and repeatedly questioned his ineffectiveness, arguing that's the issue, not Trump. Ronchetti, trailing by 10 points in the polling in the three way race, which also features Libertarian Bob Walsh, debated with Lujan for an hour on KOAT-TV (sans Walsh) in a clash that had underdog Ronchetti attacking at every opportunity, trying to shake up Lujan and thus the race. In doing so Ronchetti sacrificed some of the likability he built during a career as a popular TV meteorologist. But what choice did he have? His performance, however, rallied and reinforced his conservative base. Getting past that (and Trump) has been and remains the obstacle. Full debate here. Lujan, who has mastered the issues after 12 years on the Hill, was a solid front-runner, taking the hits but not getting off his game. He came to paint Ronchetti in a Trump corner, especially on health care, the strongest polling issue. He succeeded in part although Ronchetti tried to separate himself by saying there will be times when he votes with Trump and other times against. He also cited the congressional failure to pass a second cornaovirus package as a symbol of Lujan's inability to "get things done," even though the House has passed a package and Lujan pointed out it has been stalled in the Republican-controlled Senate. Ronchetti remarked that people wonder where is the Pete Domenci in the congressional delegation, saying the legendary GOP senator delivered mightily and in a bipartisan fashion. The irony is that Ronchetti may have been looking at the next Domenici in Lujan, at least that's the hope of those who support him and who have watched the once ridiculed blackjack dealer vault to the highest levels of power in the US House. Now he is so very close to joining a very exclusive club. THE PNM MERGER PNM executives say the merger is needed in order to finance the expensive conversion of its grid to handle renewable energy sources in the years ahead. The company says they don't anticipate any layoffs among its 1,700 employees.
The merger comes nearly two years after New Mexico's Legislature approved the Energy Transition Act (ETA) which mandates 80% renewables by 2040 and 100% carbon-free resources by 2045. PNM formed a strange bedfellows alliance with major enviro groups to win approval of the ETA. Among the few enviro opponents of the deal was Mariel Nanasi of New Energy Economy who comes with this alternative analysis of what the merger could mean for ratepayers: This potential merger wouldn't be even possible if PNM couldn't have shed its toxic economic liabilities from coal at the San Juan Generating Station, Four Corners Power Plant, and all its expensive nuclear and gas investments on to ratepayers courtesy of the ETA. Avangrid is willing to offer cash - $1B more than the current worth of PNM because the ETA is forcing ratepayers to pay more than $1 billion to PNM or its successor company. When San Juan, Four Corners and Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station and all its pre-2015 gas plants close, ratepayers will face, at a minimum, over one billion dollars in “undepreciated investments,” plus interest, that, after securitization, will appear as “non-bypassable charges” on their bills. The ETA does not permit any reduction of cost recovery for PNM's abandonment costs claimed by PNM. PNM gets whatever it wants and ratepayers are unprotected. As we move toward more renewable energy we have an opportunity to have it democratically controlled by municipalities and Native American tribes and Pueblos - which is why 8 states have adopted community choice aggregation, introduced in NM as "Local Choice Energy." ETA supporters say renewable energy will be much cheaper than fossil fuels and be a boon for ratepayers. They say the merger will expedite delivery of renewable to ratepayers. PNM shareholders will get $50.30 a share for their stock, a19 percent premium over the 30 day average price. Still the Wall Street law firms were on the hunt for shareholders to join them in filing suit to get an even higher price, noting that PNM trade recently at $56 a share. Such suits are not unusual. After the merger there will be no New Mexico-based companies listed on the NYSE. PNM was the only one. It traces its roots back to 1917 and has been part of the fabric of daily life here since. Join us for special Friday election blogging right here tomorrow.
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