Monday, October 05, 2020

Old Fashioned Snail Mail Deluge Begins; Skimpy Voter Contact In Virus Era Makes Method More Valuable; We Have Some Samples

Forget email and text messaging. Good old fashioned snail mail is still a king of campaigns in the final stretch. The mailboxes of New Mexicans are so stuffed with campaign literature that the volume rivals the days when folks used to mail Christmas cards. Let's take a look at some of this modern day literature using the old school post office.

First up is this piece from Democratic Dr. Martin Hickey, seeking election to the state Senate in a new battleground district in the ABQ NE Heights--the seat being vacated by longtime GOP Senator Bill Payne. 

Talk about good timing. There are no doctors in the 42 member senate and Hickey's backers say what better time for one than the middle of a pandemic? Hickey takes advantage and sports a face mask in this piece that reinforces his concerns with the virus. His Republican opponent is John Morton, a  retired Air Force Intelligence Officer, who has yet to hit the mailboxes. 

In addition to emphasizing his public safety credentials Hickey is labeling Morton as "too extreme," citing his support of eliminating the state corporate income tax.

Senate District 20 has been a GOP stronghold but BernCo going Blue in recent years has now put this open seat in play. It breaks down at 40 percent Dem, 36 R and 24 Independent. Because of the very real possibility that Trump will be defeated in BernCo in a landslide this Senate seat along with the ones held by BernCo Republicans Sander Rue and Candace Gould are also in danger of falling to the D's.  

STANSBURY VS. STULL 

One of the shocks of election Night '18 was the defeat of GOP state Rep. Jimmie Hall at the hands of Dem Melanie Stansbury. The district had been solid R for decades, but even this far NE Heights and East Mountain district (28) went blue in the Dem year with former Obama administration aide Melanie Stansbury taking the win. But now she has to get re-elected and the Dems don't appear to be taking any chances.

This hit piece from the Dem Patriot Majority PAC against R Tom Stull, a 30 year retired Air Force veteran challenging Stansbury, jabs him over health care policy. 

The district is now 39 percent Dem, 37 R and 22 percent independent. If the R's are going to get back this territory now would be their chance by taking on a first-termer. However, demographic changes and Trump's weakness give Dems the edge. 

ADIOS PRC?


If you're a fan of the elected Public Regulation Commission (PRC), we've got bad news. The forces that favor turning the powerful five member regulatory panel into a three member panel appointed by the governor has the momentum--and the big money--behind them. 

Look at this piece (click to enlarge) that the New York based Environmental Defense Fund spent over $260,000 on to persuade voters. The EDF and other national enviro groups have been livid over the PRC ever since several of its members questioned the Energy Transition Act (ETA) that ultimately passed the legislature and was signed into law by Gov. MLG. The ETA mandates more renewable energy.

Our PRC watchers say the enviros have another $250,000 ready to go for TV ads in support of the constitutional amendment that would make the switch. So far there has been no major campaign to save the elected commission. That's fine with MLG who has been pushing for the change from behind the scenes. 

And there's just a few examples of the hundreds of candidate and issue mail pieces jamming the mailboxes this month. How persuasive is it? That's questionable but in the no contact coronavirus era it's a reliable way to reach the voters. 

CAMPAIGN 2022

Two years out is the traditional time when we start to see potential Guv candidates coming out of their foxholes and looking around to see if opportunity is knocking. One of the first this time is ABQ financial consultant Greg Zanetti. Hee was the featured speaker over the weekend at the annual Dona Ana County GOP Lincoln-Reagan Dinner. Our Alligators report about 200 were in attendance. Zanetti made a play for the 2010 GOP Guv nod but ended that campaign early. Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block is also among the R's taking an early look at the 2022 race. If MLG doesn't get an appointment to Washington, she is expected to run again. If she goes the Dems could have some Guv primary action of their own. 

THE BOTTOM LINES 

The US Senate candidates conduct their first debate tonight at 6 p.m. on KOB-TV. Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Mark Ronchetti will be joined by Libertarian candidate Bob Walsh. 

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