Monday, October 26, 2020Monster Mailers Arrive, Biden's Gift To Herrell Goes Unopened, High Profile Senate Endorsements And Gaming State Senate Outcome
How the heck did this fit in the mailboxes and is this a new trend--the Monster Mailer?
The massive piece was perfectly folded and arrives appearing as a little book. Not cheap, but the National Association of Realtors PAC is sparing no expense in their effort to push Dem US Senate candidate Ben Ray Lujan over the top. But pity the poor trees that gave their lives for all that literature. . . As expected in the final days of a major election, the campaign trail is jammed. Off we go. . It took no time at all for President Trump to get a TV ad up in Pennsylvania excoriating Joe Biden for his anti-fracking views at Thursday's presidential debate. But where is southern GOP congressional contender Yvette Herrell? Herrell posted an ad on Facebook about Biden's oil blooper but did not jump all over it as Trump did with TV ads and conference calls. There are numerous PAC ads running excoriating Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small for supposedly having anti-energy positions but having Biden getting tripped up on a crucial southern NM issue was a gift left unopened on Herrell's doorstep. Meanwhile, Biden's reiteration of his pledge to ban oil fracking on federal lands--like those in the oil rich Permian basin in SE NM--forced Torres Small to part company with him, even saying his comments "demonize" the oil industry. Her supporters on the left, submissively quiet throughout the campaign as she increasingly veered to the right to woo Republicans, finally had had enough and retaliated on Twitter for the XTS abandonment of Biden. A nice opportunity you would think for Herrell to sow division on both the left and right, but the campaign did not act when the iron was hot--as Trump did. This one is still rated toss-up and should provide for some fun watching next Tuesday. Herrell has consistency going for her--she is what she says she is. Torres Small has dogged work in the rearview mirror that benefits her now. CASH WATCH Cash on hand for GOP US Senate hopeful Mark Ronchetti is down considerably from the $1.528 million on Sept. 30 to $686,000 on Oct. 14, according to the latest FEC reports. That number is being watched by R's to see if Ronchetti--the underdog in the Senate derby--stashes away some dough that could be used for a future run. Or maybe he goes all-in in the final days in hopes of exceeding expectations and trimming Lujan's winning margin. That would be a boost that could draw future cash. Lujan reported over $1 million in cash on hand. Both Lujan and Ronchetti are closing strong with their best TV ads. Ronchetti has Sam Vigil, widow of Jackie Vigil, the mother of two state police officers who was murdered in her ABQ driveway, endorsing him. Lujan has a retired police detective delivering the counterpunch. WEATHER GUY They come out of the woodwork in the final days. And so it is with this eyebrow raiser from Republican and former KOAT-TV general manager Mary Lynn Roper who is endorsing Democrat Lujan over former TV meteorologist Ronchetti:I voted for Ben Ray Lujan. It was an easy choice. I hired Mark Ronchetti from Grand Junction in the late 90’s. He’s a fine weather guy. He, and what he stands for, is not what New Mexico needs. We deserve better. This seat was held by Senator Pete Domenici for 36 years. . . What Domenici did for NM is truly amazing and too numerous to list!. . . Ben Ray Lujan will have New Mexico’s best interest at heart. He always has! New Mexico has been good to Ronchetti, but what has Ronchetti ever done for New Mexico? As a weather guy, you can get the forecast wrong many, many times, and still get paid! We can’t afford to get this wrong with our precious US Senate seat! Hey, maybe Mark can get the general manager of KRQE-TV--where he had his last gig--to offset Mary Lynn and endorse his candidacy. SANTA FE STUNNER Off the campaign trail, we get this sad news about former Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales: The nagging throb — and the need for daytime naps — wouldn’t go away, so Gonzales took a trip to the doctor, which led to blood tests, which led to scans, which led to … The diagnosis. Stage 4 cancer — a tumor lurking near one of Gonzales’ kidneys; a mass that had metastasized to his pelvic area. “Unless a person has gone through it, and so many people have, it’s hard to understand. There’s really that moment, that state of shock and confusion. And then very quickly trying to assess what it means for you and certainly what it means for your family.” Gonzales said. Gonzales, 54, was hired last week as the the head of the St. Vincent Hospital Foundation. TAXING ATTACK The father of Dem state senate candidate Harold Pope, Jr. had tax problems that Pope says are now being unfairly used against him by a Republican PAC in his race against ABQ Westside GOP Sen. Sander Rue. That race has become hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in mid-July. Pope, who would be the state's first Black state Senator, took to Facebook to tell the PAC to back off and stop using his dad as an issue because family should be off limits. Well, probably true, Harold. But in these anything goes days a candidate's dead cat could be an issue. WHERE IT STANDS If there's a blue tsunami the Dems stand to pick up as many as five Senate seats. If the R's mix it up that gain could be zero or even a loss of a seat. It breaks this way: A huge D turnout could push Dem contenders Pope, Duhigg and Hickey to victory in their respective BernCo senate districts. A tsunami could also turn outgoing GOP Sen. White's east mountain seat Blue and Democrat Paul Baca could oust Valencia County GOP Sen. Greg Baca. That's your five seat gain for the Dems. A big R night would be keeping all of the above seats and putting the SW seat that Dem John Arthur Smith is leaving into the Red column. That would net them a net pick up of one seat. If you had a very unlikely Red tsunami the R's would also take the Dem senate seat being vacated by Clemente Sanchez as well as the Sandoval County seat being vacated by Dem John Sapien. That would be an R pick up of three. The Dem Senate majority is currently 26-16. All of that and more will be covered in-depth and all night long on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com starting at 6:30 p.m. Our many, many guest experts will include ABQ Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas who, if pressed, might give you odds on that state Senate outcome. This is the home of New Mexico politics.
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