Monday, October 12, 2020MLG's Test: Pandemic Protests Not Only In Red Counties; Blue BernCo Sees Parents, Students Take To Streets, Plus: Haaland Debates Garcia Holmes
At a first glance you may have thought it was Roswell or Alamogordo, where opposition to virus restrictions has been ongoing since the start of the pandemic. But this was in the state's largest metro and raised political questions about the Governor and the restrictions. One of our Senior Alligators framed it this way: Many voters don't see the logic of MLG’s decisions and have trouble connecting the cause and effect behind her decisions. Are kids playing sports running in masks outdoors really the problem? I think this is the tipping point for many parents in their support for the Governor. The people making these decisions don’t have kids in school—MLG, Health Secretary Scrase, Education Secretary Stewart as well as most of the Governor's closest staff. They aren’t living this nightmare. Other states are not doing what we are doing. Her approach will contribute to our state’s kids falling even further behind. That’s shocking considering this Governor and her party claim to care about children and their education. But this is what happens when self-interested boomers put their needs over those of our youngest generation. And, because the Governor has no relationship with school boards or leaders outside Albuquerque and Santa Fe, she is unable to come up with creative, consensus solutions. Instead it’s her calling all the shots and making decisions in the Roundhouse bubble. This is where we could see the Democratic gains in Rio Rancho, ABQ's West Side and NE Heights start to erode—not this election, but the next one. All the GOP has to do is talk about rising crime and compare this state’s approach to kids' education to other states and you have an argument against the Dems and MLG. Making decisions even more difficult for the Fourth Floor is the expected rise in coronavirus cases this fall and winter that are already occuring. That's hard to balance with the lost year the state's youth are enduring and with unknown consequences for their long-term well-being. The polling is mixed on the Governor who has been prominently mentioned as a possible cabinet pick should Joe Biden win the presidency next month. The PPP poll taken Sept. 30 and Oct.1 is a red flag, showing her disapproval rating at a new high of 42 percent, climbing from 33 percent in the June PPP poll. Her approval rating was 50 percent, down from 52 in June. That seems to indicate that the state's conservative base has now consolidated in opposition to her administration (she won the '18 Guv race 57 to 43 percent). Interestingly, the PPP poll said voters approve of her handling of the virus at a 58 to 36 percent rate, so if her opposition has grown it seems it isn't solely because of her pandemic performance. The ABQ Journal survey taken mostly in late August pegged her disapproval at a still low 33 percent and her approval at a high 59 percent. The difference in the polls may be explained by methodology or by the fact that the political campaigns have heated up in the past month, increasing partisanship and therefore her opposition. There is no questioning the blow to morale that the prohibition on youth sports--even golf and volleyball--is having on the students and the Governor's numbers. You can see that in the streets of ABQ. HAALAND VS GARCIA HOLMES
Well, having gotten that off our chest, there was another of those hour long remote encounters Sunday afternoon on KOAT-TV. This clash was between ABQ Dem US Rep. Deb Haaland and her Republican challenger Michelle Garcia Holmes. It will be the only debate between the pair. (Full video here.) Zoom is a downer but the questions were solid. Off we go. Underdog Garcia Holmes came prepared to prosecute her case. Among her best moments was when she dumped on the entire NM Congressional delegation for the failure to extend badly needed broadband in the state. There is hardly a day that goes by without a DC news release about more funding for broadband but there is still no coordinated plan and during the pandemic it shows. "It's horrific that this is happening in this day and age," Garcia Holmes argued. Haaland's best moment were actually moments. She simply could not be shaken or dragged into an emotional confrontation no matter how hard Garcia Holmes attacked. That restraint is how you run when you are the polling leader and it worked. She also was effective in repeatedly scoring the congressional Republicans--and by inference her opponent--for not agreeing to a second coronavirus package that is now stalled. Garcia Holmes, a former APD detective, scored on Haaland's vote to defund Operation Legend--at least with her political base and maybe more as progressives appear to be losing the ABQ crime debate. Haaland voted to defund the Operation and Garcia seized upon that repeatedly. Haaland said her defunding vote was based on what was happening at protests in Portland this summer where she said the feds "violated human rights." She said she worried the same could happen in ABQ. Trump was occasionally mentioned but was not a dominating presence. Haaland linked Garcia Holmes to him, but mildly. The president's weakness in Bernalillo County is obvious and will help Haaland. Garcia Holmes has bought over $100,000 in TV ads while Haaland has bought none yet. She did release a $50,000 digital media buy following the debate. With her spirited challenge to Haaland, Garcia Holmes stands to consolidate the GOP vote, peel off some Dem Hispanics and conservative independents and outperform Haaland's 2018 challenger. For her part, Haaland did nothing to shake the pride that New Mexico took in her for climbing the hill to become a Native American member of Congress. Her steady debate performance set the course for her probable re-election. This is the home of New Mexico politics.
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