Thursday, October 15, 2020Key ABQ Senate Races Poised To Go Dem? Plus: Move To Abolish PRC Draws Opposition And Your Rulebook For Absentee Voting The Rue seat (District 23) is now seen as the most vulnerable held by the R's. Campaign polling, changing demographics, the unique nature of Pope's candidacy and his heftier campaign chest all weigh in his favor. In 2016 Rue only narrowly won re-election 52-48. Now he has Trump's ABQ weakness to contend with. He has tried to style himself a moderate Republican, a near extinct species, but the working class Dem families that have come to dominate the district may not be listening. This is more of a bread and butter election about healthcare and jobs and, of course, Trump. Two other GOP seats in the metro are also now seen leaning to the Dems as the early votes flow in. The ABQ North Valley seat held by first term Senator Candace Gould is set to tip if a BernCo blue wave against Trump forms, as it appears to be. Gould only narrowly own the district 51 to 49 four years ago when Dem Hillary Clinton carried it 46 to Trump's 41. Like Rue, Gould has reached out to moderate voters but Dem challenger Katy Duhigg has a well-known political name, has outraised her and has the Dems motivated. In the NE Heights the GOP senate candidacy of retired Air Force intelligence officer John Morton suffered a blow when the ABQ Journal endorsed Democratic Dr. Martin Hickey. It was an unexpected rebuke of Morton who is hoping to replace R Sen Bill Payne who is vacating the seat. But Hickey's status as a medical doctor in a time of pandemic and his robust fundraising, which has far outpaced that of Morton, appears to be putting him in the driver's seat in the final days. Democrats are also upbeat about the chances of Brenda McKenna, a staffer for Dem US Rep. Deb Haaland who is trying to succeed Dem Sen. John Sapien who is vacating a largely Sandoval County swing senate seat. She is opposed by business owner John Clark. Dem analysts say this district is set to go to McKenna if Trump runs weak. How close is District 9? Well, in 2016 Clinton beat Trump there by the tiny margin of 48.93% to 47.93%. ABOLISH PRC?  Could there be an upset at the polls and the constitutional amendment that would abolish the elected Public Regulation Commission (PRC) in favor of one appointed by the Governor go down to defeat? That's hard to see given the big enviro money backing the amendment as well as the support of MLG. But New Mexicans do like to elect their public officials. And that's the message the chairman of the Commission, Steve Fischmann, says he has been picking up. In fact, he says it has made him switch his position from favoring the proposed Governor appointed three member commission to keeping the elected five member panel. As a sitting commissioner, I supported the legislature’s decision. Appointing commissioners appeared to be a plausible step towards addressing the expertise gap we often see at the commission. Constituent discussions and recent developments have caused me to have a change of heart. Newly adopted statutes specify that six of the seven people who identify “qualified nominees” from which PRC Commission appointments will be made will be selected by legislative leadership and the Governor’s cabinet members. The Governor and our legislative leaders run political action committees (PACs) that often take large contributions from big utilities. While they have made admirable strides in speeding New Mexico’s transition to renewable energy, there have been widespread complaints about big giveaways to power companies in the process. Northern PRC Dem candidate Joe Maestas is also voting agains the PRC amendment, saying: Don’t be swayed by mail propaganda and distorted TV ads from the Committee to Protect New Mexico Consumers PAC that is pushing for the passage of this amendment under the guise of “voter education.” This PAC was recently caught violating campaign finance laws and has already funneled over $250K of dark money from anonymous, out-of-state donors into this campaign. As a publicly-financed candidate, I know that I won’t be bought by dark PAC money and neither will New Mexico voters. My hope is that voters will send a powerful and overwhelming message to industry insiders and special interests that hide behind PACs by rejecting Constitutional Amendment 1. The New York-based Environmental Defense Fund is the group that has been spending the money to advance the amendment and without any paid opposition many observers believe it will pass. Pros and cons on the amendment here. INDIAN COUNTRY PLAN The Biden-Harris ticket has released a 15 page Plan for Tribal Nations. Among other things, it calls for partnering. . . . . . with tribes and women’s advocates by providing support for tribal justice systems, increasing data collection methods, and directing the Department of Justice to investigate cases of missing and murdered Indigenous women. Rep. Deb Haaland, Laguna and Jemez Pueblo, of New Mexico added her support for the Biden-Harris campaign’s plan, saying it “lays out a strong path forward for Indian Country.” She added: “I am also especially appreciative of Joe Biden’s commitment to the crisis of Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women which has plagued our communities for far too long.” Much of the plan centers on impacting health outcomes. The Navajo Reservation has been among the hardest hit areas for coronavirus. About 11 percent of New Mexico's population is classified as Native American. JAWDROPPER Meanwhile, Haaland comes with a jaw dropping financial report. She says she raised $546,000 in the third quarter and has $525,000 in cash on hand. Her Republican opponent Michelle Garcia Holmes ended September with $150,000 in cash. She also lists a personal loan debt of $118,000. Haaland has a commanding lead in the polls and is not expected to spend anywhere near what cash she has in the bank. Democratic candidates around the nation have been reporting similar startling fund-raising numbers. It raises the question of whether they should consider donating some of the excess to charities that help the many people suffering economically from the coronavirus? What say you, Deb? ABSENTEE RULES
Because of the novelty of absentee voting for thousands of New Mexicans Common Cause NM comes with an in-depth question and answer guide on everything you want and need to know about absentee voting. Voters have until Oct. 20 to request an absentee and can do so here. It's best to mail the ballot back by Oct. 27 so the postal service gets it to the county clerk by election day Nov. 3. Absentees received after 7 p.m. Nov. 3 will not be counted. You can also track the status of your absentee ballot at the above link. THE BOTTOM LINES Back by popular demand or maybe Catholic guilt, we resume Friday blogging tomorrow and for the duration of the campaign, so be sure to stop by for your political fix. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   |
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