Tuesday, October 27, 2020Early Voting Surge Continues: We Break Down The Impact, Plus: More Senate Sparring, A Southwest Senate Showdown Heats Up And Legislative Debate Action In Las Cruces It's hard to see how this influx of voters--many of them first-timers--do not reshape New Mexican politics and send it further away from the center, the direction it has been going the last few cycles. This mammoth turnout means that there will be many more voters of color, apartment dwellers and lower income citizens casting ballots--and they invariably vote more Democratic. The turnout gap between the D's and R's is starting to close as GOP voters who have shunned absentee balloting take part in the early voting and prepare for election day voting. Still, statewide the Dem turnout stands at 50.6 of the early vote to the R's 34.6 percent. Independent turnout is at 13.5%. Registration in the state is 45.4 percent D, 30.2 percent R and 22.4% Independent. That's quite a performance gap for the GOP and the conservative leaning Indys to make up with the election now just a week away. The early polling--which probably does not account for the historic turnout--already had Biden trouncing Trump and Ben Ray Lujan handily beating Republican Mark Ronchetti in the Senate race. There's going to have to be some unexpected ticket splitting in order for the laggards to sprint from here. The open question of course is if a Dem turnout surge makes the difference in the toss-up southern congressional race. The most suspenseful aspect of Campaign 2020--the outcome of the state Senate and how much it could move away from center-right dominance--could deliver a surprise, if the R's fail to saddle up and respond to what is taking place in the early voting. It appears there will be very late polling with the ABQ Journal coming with its second and final poll of the election on Sunday. That could be dangerous. It's true that Republicans are the most reliable voters but could polling that shows key contests far out of reach make them less enthusiastic to vote on Election Day? ELECTION NIGHT 2020
By the way, the turnout numbers in big Bernalillo County have the early vote so far at about 200,000 with 55.3% of that coming from Dems; 29.6% from R's and 14.9% from Indys. BernCo registration is 46.6% Dem; 27.7% R and 23.7% Indy. Three of the most important Senate seats are at stake in the county and that turnout number is encouraging to a wide range of Democratic consultants and Alligators. We'll keep you posted. SENATE SPARRING  In the US Senate race Republican Ronchetti, facing a daunting task, is trying to grind out votes with anything he can. Campaign manager Jeff Glassburn comes with this: The Senate Majority PAC bought over $100,000 in airtime in the New Mexico Senate race in an attempt to save Ben Ray Lujan’s faltering campaign.
“It’s a strong statement that national Democrats feel the need to try to rescue Ben Ray Lujan in the final week of the election. It’s no surprise that the DC Super PAC is trying to bail out the DC-first candidate. Mark has run a campaign built on putting the people of New Mexico first, and that message has resonated. . . Unfortunately for the Lujan campaign, New Mexicans are smart enough to see through Lujan’s phony TV ads and know he’s a candidate who will always put DC politics first.” Said Glassburner. As usual the Lujan campaign was hot on Ronchetti's trail with manager Travis Brimm delivering this rejoinder: “While our campaign appreciates this show of support, it’s clear Ben Ray was already in a strong position to win on November 3rd. The Luján campaign has powerful momentum: Ben Ray is leading Mark Ronchetti by 10 points according to the latest polling, is running his own multi-million dollar ad campaign that will run through Election Day, is coming off dominant debate performances, and has outraised Ronchetti by nearly five million dollars during the course of the campaign. One week from Election Day, we're confident that New Mexicans across the state are showing up and already voting for Ben Ray and his positive vision for New Mexico." SOUTHWEST SHOWDOWN The race to replace outgoing state Senate Democratic conservative powerhouse John Arthur Smith of Deming is the most expensive legislative race of the campaign but Republican Crystal Diamond, the money leader, says in a fund-raising pitch things aren't what they seem: Although I top the legislative fundraising list, I am being outspent by out-of-district special interest groups who have flooded hundreds of thousands of dollars into attack ads in an effort to buy this seat.
Why are they investing so heavily into this seat? Because it is the most likely to flip Senate seat and I’ve put up a fight to remind them that our Senate vote is not for sale.
Our race is the #1 pick up opportunity for the State Senate this year and make no mistake, we are fully invested to win. I’ve been humbled by the outpouring of support we’ve received. Now we are down to the wire, and I need your help. Those special interest groups Diamond mentions are of the progressive variety who were instrumental in ousting John Arthur Smith in the Dem primary by supporting Neomi Martinez-Parra. What can we say about this one, expect that it is both a barn burner and a nail biter. We'll be on it like white on rice when the votes get counted. SOUTHERN ACTION
One of the lighter moments came in the Steinborn-Scroggs face-off when she was asked an obscure and complex question about water rights. She tilted her head back and said something on the order of: "Oh, boy. I'm going to defer to Jeff on that one." Steinborn responded to the effect of: "Well, I don't know what that question means either, but of course I will try to answer it anyway." Good Stuff. The debates each run about an hour. Thanks to Arturo for the send. VOTING INFO Today is the last day that election officials advise voters casting absentee ballots to mail them. After today the postal service is not guaranteeing ballots will arrive by 7 p.m. Election Night, Nov. 3. Ballots received after that time will not be counted. BernCo Clerk Linda Stover says voters can drop off their absentees at any of the 18 early vote centers that are now open and can do so through Oct. 31. Voters in other counties can do the same at their early sites. As for the best time to early vote in BernCo, Stover says: Early voting wait times have been highest between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. There has been little to no wait at most early voting convenience centers from 1 to 5 p.m. and from 6 to 7 p.m. The Clerk’s Office is tweeting wait time updates on Twitter (@BernCoClerk). It's an understatement to say that in this election voters can hardly wait to vote--and are willing to wait to do so. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020 |
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