Let's update the two big congressional races in the state with now less than 100 days before election day and a whole lot closer than that to significant early voting. . .

Is the southern congressional contest starting to tilt toward incumbent Dem US Rep. Xochitl Torres-Small? Although national R's say they will come with millions in PAC money to support GOP challenger Yvette Herrell recent fund-raising reports from the individual campaigns prompted longtime pundit Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia to rerate the race from "toss-up" to "lean Dem." His reasoning:

. . . Herrell (won) a nasty primary over Claire Chase, who some Republicans thought could offer the party a fresh start. . . Torres Small more than tripled Herrell’s campaign spending in 2018; that edge could get even more pronounced in 2020, as Torres Small holds a $3.9 million to $379,000 cash on hand edge over Herrell in recent reporting. This is definitely a GOP-leaning district: Trump won it 50%-40%, with another 8% going to Libertarian Gary Johnson. In all likelihood, Trump will carry the district again, although perhaps with a reduced margin. The race is arguably very close right now -- a Republican internal poll released recently had it tied 46%-46% and probably will be close in the end. But we suspect Torres Small will be able to generate enough crossover support to hang on. 

There has been no public polling on the presidential race in the southern district but insider polling we have seen is worrisome for Herrell. One survey showed Trump beating Biden by only one point--not nearly enough to push Herrell over the top. Of course, the southern Congress race is volatile. Things can change.

And the GOP is also fighting new headwinds in the US Senate race where Dem Rep. Ben Ray Lujan faces Republican and political newcomer Mark Ronchetti. The Cook Political Report's new ranking of that race moves it to the "solid Democratic" corner from "likely Dem." Again, fund-raising is a cause. At last report Lujan had $3.3 million in cash on hand and Ronchetti less than $600,000.

In the only public polling on the statewide presidential race, PPP in mid-June had it Biden 53 and Trump 39. In the Senate race the survey had Lujan leading 48-34.

JOE'S #2

In that race to be Joe Biden's running mate, MLG still earns a mention but not much intensity. The pundits are more prone to think her chances are more realistic for a slot in the Biden cabinet (e.g. Sec. of Health). Still the summer guessing game continues and provides some entertainment before the campaigns pick up. Here's the latest from Politico on MLG and Joe:

WHY BIDEN SHOULD PICK HER

. . . She would bring plenty of political and policy-making experience to the ticket. She was chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in her third and final term in the House, and she has major bona fides on the critical issue of health care from her previous positions in state government.

Like Biden, Lujan Grisham has suddenly lost a spouse: Her husband collapsed on a jog in 2004 and died the next day. And Lujan Grisham has a strong electoral record in a state the Trump campaign has crowed about trying to put in play: She routed her GOP opponent in 2018, then-Rep. Steve Pearce, running up a margin of 57 percent to 43 percent in a high-turnout contest.

WHY HE SHOULDN'T

. . .Despite a recent rollback of reopening measures, New Mexico is still seeing a spike in coronavirus cases. She also came under fire back in May for a remote jewelry purchase that was conducted without unsafe personal contact — but also came before the state began allowing retail curbside delivery. Pearce, her 2018 opponent who now chairs the state GOP, called it “really disgraceful.”

She’s the governor of a small state, and few strategists on both sides buy into the Trump campaign’s bravado about contesting New Mexico’s five electoral votes this fall. That means Biden might rather look elsewhere for a home-state bump. And. . . she lacks the national profile that senators have built. . . 

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. 

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020