Will they or won't they? That's the question Democrats are asking about the tease from President Trump's campaign last September that they will contest the state's five electoral votes and which would mean pumping in millions of dollars of TV advertising into the Land of Enchantment.

The question is important not so much for its impact on the presidential race. Few political pros give Trump anything more than a very longshot chance at carrying this blue state. But Dems are concerned that a heavy Trump TV schedule could influence voting in the key southern congressional race featuring Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small and GOP nominee Yvette Herrell.

The race is ranked "lean Dem" by national political handicappers but if Trump were to landslide that district against Joe Biden the impact would reverberate in the congressional battle. In 2016 Trump carried the district by 10 points. In 2018 Torres Small defeated Herrell there by boosting turnout in liberal areas such as Dona Ana County. She will have to do that again, but also survive any unexpected Trump surge elsewhere in the district that could deliver a tight race to Herrell.

The good news for the Dems is that so far the Trump campaign has teased but not spent any TV money here:

The Trump campaign has spent nearly $20 million on television ads since mid-March when the pandemic began to shut down the United States, according to tracking by Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group. That spending includes more than $4.6 million on television in Florida, nearly $2.5 million in Pennsylvania, nearly $2 million in North Carolina, and more than $1 million apiece in both Michigan and Wisconsin. The president's ads are also getting airtime in states like Arizona, Ohio and Iowa.

Another point Dems are making: If Trump and/or his PAC allies come into the state in a big way they might get involved in competitive state senate races. The NM senate is on the verge of taking a major swing to the left as a result of progressive Dem primary wins and several Republican senators are at risk, including ABQ area Senators Sander Rue and Candace Gould.

Even if Trump is seen as unable to win here, there could still be reasons to persuade the Red team to play here. A defeat of Torres Small or interrupting the liberal direction of the state Senate might be seen as potential accomplishments that deserve some cash behind them. Stay tuned.

DEFENDING APOA

Sean Willoughby

We gave ample space  Monday to reader and former ABQ police oversight task force member Alan Wagman and his plea to city leaders that the contract for the ABQ police union--APOA--not be reined as a means of using leverage on the department to be more responsive to federal reform efforts. Today rebuttal from APOA President Sean Willoughby:

The Albuquerque Police Officers Association has been and will continue to be a good partner in the reform of this police department. Anyone who says otherwise is just using uninformed, cliched talking points. For six years, we have been putting in the hard work that our community and our profession has demanded. I call on your readers who are passionate about police reform to first spend time reading our Court Approved Settlement Agreement (CASA), reviewing the federal court hearing minutes and reading the Federal Monitor’s Reports. That way they can see for themselves how far we’ve come from where we were and the current track we’re headed on before requesting a different reform process.

Claims that our contract is impeding reform are also off-base. We have worked with the City to include language from the CASA to actually support reform efforts. Yes, our contract outlines the timeline for disciplining officers. However, it’s not in an attempt to circumvent discipline, but rather to provide officers due process. It also assures the public that officers who are guilty of wrongdoing are held accountable in a timely manner.

We believe our contract is fair and one of the most dedicated to reform in the entire country. It should be noted that our contract is evergreen upon expiration, and the City has already agreed to continue our current contract till the end of the year because of the economic effects of Covid-19 on the budgetary process. Therefore, our current contract will remain in place until a new contract is agreed upon.

As for Council President Davis, my frustration is over what appears to be him pandering to the national Defund Police movement when he is so intimately aware of our reform process, as well as our city’s officer shortage and staggering crime numbers. He’s right, the city, and state for that matter, should be investing more in behavioral health, but to do so on the back of a police department that is already underfunded defies logic.”

Retired APD Sergeant and public watchdog Dan Klein came with this:

Wagman blames the APOA for the due process time limit on investigations. His angst is better directed toward the mayor and the police chief who agreed to the time limits and then failed to staff the disciplinary investigative units with enough employees to get the job done. Wagman blaming the APOA is akin to blaming a defense attorney for representing a client to well when the district attorney misses deadlines. What world is Wagman living in?

OLD TOWN CHAOS

Meanwhile Mayor Keller tried to make a splash by announcing a new Community Safety Department Monday that he says will allow APD to focus more on violent crime. So what happens hours later? An unruly protest erupts near Old Town over the removal of the Juan de Oñate statue, "La Jornada", outside the Albuquerque Museum. It turned violent when a man was shot. A self-described militia supporting the presence of the statue clashed with those trying to pull it down. That came after rioters days ago destroyed many downtown businesses. Keller said as a result of last night's violence the statue will be taken down for now. Uh, about that Community Safety Department. . .

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020